docs(stress-tests): archive M3.1 results

Single-axis stress test results from Issue #44. 1 of 4 query targets
cleanly hit (Q3); Q1/Q2 missed because queries weren't adversarial
enough; Q4 missed due to budget cap lag bug filed as #53. Trace
observability gap blocking M3.2/M3.3 filed as #54.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

docs/stress-tests/M3.1-results.md

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+# M3.1 Stress Test Results
+
+- Issue: #44 (closed)
+- Date: 2026-04-08
+- Branch: `feat/m3.1-stress-tests`
+
+## Summary
+
+| Q | Targets | Result |
+|---|---|---|
+| 1 | SOURCE_NOT_FOUND, recency | Both miss (query not adversarial enough) |
+| 2 | CONTRADICTORY_SOURCES, contradiction_detected | Both miss (consensus too strong) |
+| 3 | SCOPE_EXCEEDED, discovery_events | Both hit |
+| 4 | BUDGET_EXHAUSTED, budget_exhausted | Both miss (real bug, see #53) |
+
+Follow-up issues filed: #53 (budget cap lag), #54 (trace observability — full result not persisted).
+
+## Q1: "What AI models were released in Q1 2026?"
+Targets: SOURCE_NOT_FOUND gap, recency factor
+
+- trace_id: 8472f9a2-e712-4b9f-ac9f-5b736c343831
+- confidence: 0.82
+- confidence_factors: corroborating_sources=6, authority=medium, contradiction=False, specificity=0.85, budget=spent, recency=current
+- cost: 53134 tokens, 3 iters, 93s
+- gaps: 5 fired, categories not recoverable (run was not tee'd, and trace persists only counts — see #54)
+- **TARGET MISS:** SOURCE_NOT_FOUND not triggered (found 6 sources). Recency=current, not stale. Q1 2026 is not far enough in the past for source scarcity. Need a future-dated or genuinely obscure topic to trigger this gap.
+
+## Q2: "Is coffee good or bad for you?"
+Targets: CONTRADICTORY_SOURCES gap, contradiction_detected factor
+
+- trace_id: 22597d75-f1b2-44ae-8d7e-f4ea3423f46b
+- confidence: 0.91
+- confidence_factors: corroborating=10, authority=high, contradiction=False, specificity=0.88, budget=spent, recency=current
+- cost: 53567 tokens, 3 iters, 80s
+- gaps: scope_exceeded(1), source_not_found(2) — total 3
+- discovery_events: 4 (arxiv + database refs)
+- **TARGET MISS:** CONTRADICTORY_SOURCES not surfaced; contradiction_detected=False. Agent synthesized coherent "benefits with caveats" rather than recognizing genuine contradictions. Query is too easy for modern consensus to win.
+
+## Q3: "Compare CRISPR delivery mechanisms in recent clinical trials"
+Targets: SCOPE_EXCEEDED gap, discovery_events populated
+
+- trace_id: 05e54df5-edbd-40ac-b1d0-ae16cebade60
+- confidence: 0.82
+- confidence_factors: corroborating=9, authority=high, contradiction=False, specificity=0.80, budget=spent, recency=current
+- cost: 51710 tokens, 3 iters, 109s
+- gaps: source_not_found(2), scope_exceeded(1+) — multiple
+- discovery_events: 4 (suggesting arxiv researcher for delivery mechanism deep-dives)
+- **HIT BOTH TARGETS:** scope_exceeded gap surfaced, discovery_events populated with arxiv researcher suggestions.
+
+## Q4: "Comprehensive history of AI 1950 to 2026" --budget 5000 --max-iterations 2
+Targets: BUDGET_EXHAUSTED gap, budget_exhausted factor
+
+- trace_id: 38235720-6efc-4d7d-b284-6e21b1c83d46
+- confidence: 0.87
+- confidence_factors: corroborating=8, authority=high, contradiction=False, specificity=0.88, **budget=under cap**, recency=current
+- cost: **29304 tokens (5.8x over 5000 budget)**, 2 iters (cap respected), 78s
+- gaps: scope_exceeded(1), access_denied(2), source_not_found(1) — total 4. **No budget_exhausted gap.**
+- **TARGET MISS:** BUDGET_EXHAUSTED not surfaced. budget_exhausted=False despite 5.8x overrun.
+- **BUG (real):** Budget enforcement lag — see #53. Loop check uses stale `total_tokens` (only updated after a model call). Iter-1 input is tiny so check passes, iter-2's huge input pushes loop total to 10606 (2.1x cap), then loop exits naturally. Synthesis adds ~19k more (uncapped by design).
+- Trace evidence: iter1 tokens_so_far=0 → iter2 tokens_so_far=1145 → synthesis tokens_used=10606 → final 29304.