docs(stress-tests): M3.3 Phase A — calibration data collection #59
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.env
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.env
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.env.local
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.env.local
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*.log
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*.log
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# Exception: stress test run logs are committed as provenance — they map
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# trace_id -> category for the calibration collector script.
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!docs/stress-tests/**/*.log
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# Tests
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# Tests
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.pytest_cache/
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.pytest_cache/
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docs/stress-tests/M3.3-rating-worksheet.md
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# M3.3 Calibration Rating Worksheet
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Issue: #46 (Phase B — human rating)
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## How to use this worksheet
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For each run below, read the answer + citations from the persisted result file (path in the **Result file** column). Score the answer's *actual* correctness on a 0.0–1.0 scale, **independent** of the model's self-reported confidence. Fill in the **actual_rating** column. Add notes in the **notes** column for anything unusual.
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Rating rubric:
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- **1.0** — Answer is fully correct, well-supported by cited sources, no material gaps or hallucinations.
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- **0.8** — Mostly correct; minor inaccuracies or omissions that don't change the substance.
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- **0.6** — Substantively right but with notable errors, missing context, or weak citations.
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- **0.4** — Mixed: some right, some wrong; or right answer for wrong reasons.
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- **0.2** — Mostly wrong, misleading, or hallucinated despite confident framing.
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- **0.0** — Completely wrong, fabricated, or refuses to answer a tractable question.
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After rating all rows, save this file and run:
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```
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.venv/bin/python scripts/calibration_analyze.py
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```
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## Runs (22 total)
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| # | trace_id | category | question | model_conf | corrob | authority | contradiction | budget | recency | gaps | citations | discoveries | tokens | actual_rating | notes |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | `28f55110` | ad-hoc | What is the half-life of caffeine? | 0.95 | 4 | high | no | under | current | scope_exceeded(1) | 4 | 2 | 11582 | | |
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| 2 | `74a017bd` | ad-hoc | Compare the reliability of AWS Lambda vs. Azure Functions for a high-frequenc... | 0.78 | 18 | medium | yes | spent | current | source_not_found(5) | 18 | 4 | 127692 | | |
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| 3 | `6141a021` | factual | What is the boiling point of liquid nitrogen at standard atmospheric pressure? | 0.98 | 5 | high | no | under | current | — | 5 | 2 | 42473 | | |
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| 4 | `91e87d05` | factual | When did the James Webb Space Telescope launch? | 0.99 | 5 | high | no | under | current | contradictory_sources(1) | 5 | 2 | 19708 | | |
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| 5 | `710b0a62` | factual | What programming language is the Linux kernel primarily written in? | 0.97 | 6 | high | no | under | current | contradictory_sources(1), source_not_found(1) | 6 | 2 | 32922 | | |
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| 6 | `ffc42162` | factual | What is the capital of Mongolia? | 0.99 | 4 | high | no | under | current | — | 4 | 1 | 11009 | | |
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| 7 | `7561029e` | factual | How many amino acids are encoded by the standard genetic code? | 0.98 | 4 | high | no | under | current | scope_exceeded(1) | 4 | 2 | 48308 | | |
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| 8 | `aaf3b9ef` | comparative | Compare the energy density of lithium-ion vs sodium-ion batteries. | 0.91 | 8 | high | no | spent | current | contradictory_sources(1), scope_exceeded(1), source_not_found(1) | 8 | 3 | 48087 | | |
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| 9 | `01881015` | comparative | Compare PostgreSQL and SQLite for embedded analytics workloads. | 0.88 | 10 | medium | no | spent | current | source_not_found(3) | 10 | 4 | 61699 | | |
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| 10 | `9e436db7` | comparative | Compare CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cas12 for in vivo gene editing. | 0.82 | 14 | high | no | spent | current | source_not_found(4) | 14 | 4 | 54153 | | |
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| 11 | `7c8dd19b` | comparative | Compare React and Vue for large enterprise frontends in 2026. | 0.81 | 12 | medium | yes | spent | current | contradictory_sources(1), scope_exceeded(1), source_not_found(2) | 12 | 4 | 56137 | | |
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| 12 | `e3fa81c3` | comparative | Compare wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United States. | 0.88 | 10 | high | no | spent | current | scope_exceeded(2), source_not_found(2) | 10 | 4 | 48230 | | |
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| 13 | `96acce3c` | contradiction | Is red wine good for cardiovascular health? | 0.72 | 7 | high | yes | spent | recent | access_denied(1), contradictory_sources(1), source_not_found(1) | 9 | 3 | 42350 | | |
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| 14 | `c4942f00` | contradiction | Does intermittent fasting extend lifespan in humans? | 0.72 | 9 | high | yes | spent | current | contradictory_sources(2), source_not_found(2) | 11 | 4 | 62781 | | |
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| 15 | `2e2b6e88` | contradiction | Are nuclear power plants safe? | 0.92 | 8 | high | no | spent | current | contradictory_sources(1), scope_exceeded(1), source_not_found(1) | 8 | 3 | 63429 | | |
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| 16 | `27d81891` | contradiction | Is dietary cholesterol harmful? | 0.78 | 13 | high | yes | spent | current | contradictory_sources(1), source_not_found(2) | 13 | 4 | 64718 | | |
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| 17 | `9c18d570` | contradiction | Does screen time harm child development? | 0.10 | 0 | low | no | spent | — | budget_exhausted(1) | 0 | 0 | 44375 | | |
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| 18 | `f4c43973` | scope | What proprietary indexing strategies do high-frequency trading firms use for ... | 0.72 | 8 | medium | no | spent | current | scope_exceeded(1), source_not_found(3) | 8 | 4 | 70892 | | |
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| 19 | `b3d00938` | scope | What is the actual operational doctrine of Chinese DF-41 ICBM brigades? | 0.72 | 12 | high | yes | spent | current | access_denied(1), contradictory_sources(1), scope_exceeded(1), source_not_found(1) | 12 | 4 | 62857 | | |
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| 20 | `716e548a` | scope | What internal compensation bands does Goldman Sachs use for VPs in 2026? | 0.62 | 8 | medium | yes | spent | current | contradictory_sources(1), scope_exceeded(1), source_not_found(2) | 10 | 3 | 51829 | | |
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| 21 | `b7cd9d50` | scope | How does Renaissance Technologies Medallion Fund actually generate alpha? | 0.82 | 10 | medium | no | spent | current | access_denied(1), source_not_found(3) | 10 | 4 | 43096 | | |
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| 22 | `a4bb5b7a` | scope | What are the precise materials and tolerances in TSMC's 2nm process? | 0.42 | 9 | medium | no | spent | current | source_not_found(5) | 9 | 4 | 62620 | | |
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## Result files (full content for review)
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1. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/28f55110-3b34-4661-87c7-e83bcbe9c4c6.result.json`
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2. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/74a017bd-697b-4439-96b8-fe12057cf2e8.result.json`
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3. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79.result.json`
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4. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2.result.json`
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5. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9.result.json`
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6. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1.result.json`
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7. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2.result.json`
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8. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1.result.json`
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9. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755.result.json`
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10. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c.result.json`
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11. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0.result.json`
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12. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540.result.json`
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13. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d.result.json`
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14. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3.result.json`
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15. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9.result.json`
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16. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696.result.json`
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17. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2.result.json`
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18. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7.result.json`
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19. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9.result.json`
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20. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52.result.json`
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21. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/b7cd9d50-3eec-4eca-8db0-a580722c2b19.result.json`
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22. `/home/micro/.marchwarden/traces/a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7.result.json`
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128
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/01-factual.log
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docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/01-factual.log
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Researching: What is the boiling point of liquid nitrogen at standard
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atmospheric pressure?
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{"question": "What is the boiling point of liquid nitrogen at standard atmospheric pressure?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:07.183443Z"}
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{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:07.993167Z"}
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{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:08.002221Z"}
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{"question": "What is the boiling point of liquid nitrogen at standard atmospheric pressure?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:08.036624Z"}
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{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "What is the boiling point of liquid nitrogen at standard atmospheric pressure?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:08.037079Z"}
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{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:08.037172Z"}
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{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1107, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:20.314935Z"}
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{"step": 12, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 5768, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:25.184914Z"}
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{"step": 15, "decision": "Starting iteration 4/5", "tokens_so_far": 16093, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:27.276067Z"}
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{"step": 17, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 17, "iterations_run": 4, "tokens_used": 29376, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:49:43.946958Z"}
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{"step": 18, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 21492, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:05.440080Z"}
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{"step": 26, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.98, "citation_count": 5, "gap_count": 0, "discovery_count": 2, "total_duration_sec": 59.528, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:05.442761Z"}
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{"confidence": 0.98, "citations": 5, "gaps": 0, "discovery_events": 2, "tokens_used": 42473, "iterations_run": 4, "wall_time_sec": 57.403085231781006, "budget_exhausted": false, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:05.442894Z"}
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{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:05.443791Z"}
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{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:05.453034Z"}
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{"trace_id": "6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79", "confidence": 0.98, "citations": 5, "tokens_used": 42473, "wall_time_sec": 57.403085231781006, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:05.720817Z"}
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╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
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│ The boiling point of liquid nitrogen at standard atmospheric pressure (1 atm │
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│ / 14.7 psia / 760 mmHg) is −195.79 °C (77 K; −320 °F). Some sources round │
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│ this to −195.8 °C or approximately −196 °C. This value represents the │
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│ temperature at which nitrogen transitions from its liquid phase to a gas │
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│ phase under normal atmospheric conditions. │
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╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
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Citations
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┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
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┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
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┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
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│ 1 │ Liquid Nitrogen Temperature │ The temperature of liquid │ 0.98 │
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│ │ and Facts │ nitrogen is −195.79 °C (77 K; │ │
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│ │ https://sciencenotes.org/liqu │ −320 °F). This is the boiling │ │
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│ │ id-nitrogen-temperature-and-f │ point of nitrogen. However, │ │
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│ │ acts/ │ nitrogen can exist as a liquid │ │
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│ │ │ between 63 K and 77.2 K │ │
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│ │ │ (-346°F and -320.44°F). │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 2 │ Nitrogen - Thermophysical │ Boiling Point - at saturation │ 0.97 │
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│ │ Properties │ pressure 14.7 psia and 760 mm │ │
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│ │ https://www.engineeringtoolbo │ Hg - ( o F, o C ) -320.4, │ │
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│ │ x.com/nitrogen-d_1421.html │ -195.8 │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 3 │ What Is the Temperature of │ The temperature of liquid │ 0.95 │
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│ │ Liquid Nitrogen? - WestAir │ nitrogen is -196°C (-321°F) at │ │
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│ │ https://westairgases.com/blog │ its boiling point. The liquid │ │
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│ │ /liquid-nitrogen-temperature- │ nitrogen temperature range │ │
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│ │ properties/ │ spans between -210°C (freezing │ │
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│ │ │ point) and -196°C (boiling │ │
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│ │ │ point). │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 4 │ What is the boiling point of │ At 1 atmosphere of pressure, │ 0.90 │
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│ │ liquid nitrogen? Does it │ nitrogen boils at -195.8 │ │
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│ │ change ... - Quora │ Celsius (-320.4 Fahrenheit). │ │
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│ │ https://www.quora.com/What-is │ Of course, like any substance, │ │
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│ │ -the-boiling-point-of-liquid- │ boiling point varies directly │ │
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│ │ nitrogen-Does-it-change-in-a- │ with pressure. │ │
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│ │ vacuum-or-at-standard-conditi │ │ │
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│ │ ons │ │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 5 │ The boiling point for liquid │ The boiling point for liquid │ 0.88 │
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│ │ nitrogen at atmospheric │ nitrogen at atmospheric │ │
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│ │ pressure is 77 K. │ pressure is 77 K. In an open │ │
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│ │ https://brainly.com/question/ │ container, liquid nitrogen's │ │
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│ │ 17018364 │ temperature is generally │ │
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│ │ │ around its boiling point of 77 │ │
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│ │ │ K due to continuous │ │
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│ │ │ vaporization. │ │
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└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
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Discovery Events
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||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ liquid nitrogen │ The boiling point │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ boiling point │ of nitrogen │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pressure │ varies with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dependence phase │ pressure; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ diagram │ understanding │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ this relationship │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ is useful for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ industrial and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ scientific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ applications. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ nitrogen phase │ Engineering │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ diagram triple │ ToolBox │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ point critical │ references a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ point │ nitrogen phase │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ diagram showing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ conditions for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ solid, liquid, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ and gas phases. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How does the boiling point of │ Multiple sources note that │
|
||||||
|
│ │ liquid nitrogen change as │ boiling point varies directly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ pressure decreases toward a │ with pressure, suggesting │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vacuum? │ significant changes under │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reduced pressure conditions. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ What is the exact triple point │ Sources mention nitrogen exists │
|
||||||
|
│ │ temperature and pressure for │ as a liquid between 63 K and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nitrogen? │ 77.2 K, implying a triple point │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ near 63 K, but exact triple │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ point data was not provided in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the gathered evidence. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.98 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 5 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 1.00 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: under cap │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 42473 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 57.40s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 6141a021-4a47-45df-aa0c-5acd1db78b79
|
||||||
145
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/02-factual.log
Normal file
145
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/02-factual.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,145 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: When did the James Webb Space Telescope launch?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "When did the James Webb Space Telescope launch?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:06.289350Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:07.051309Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:07.061145Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "When did the James Webb Space Telescope launch?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:07.098980Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "When did the James Webb Space Telescope launch?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:07.099569Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:07.099732Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 5, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1050, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:15.512242Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 8, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 5418, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:18.749199Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 10, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 6, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 11453, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:28.069780Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 11, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 24998, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:51.942803Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 20, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.99, "citation_count": 5, "gap_count": 1, "discovery_count": 2, "total_duration_sec": 47.037, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:51.943609Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.99, "citations": 5, "gaps": 1, "discovery_events": 2, "tokens_used": 19708, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 44.843754529953, "budget_exhausted": false, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:51.943716Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:51.944100Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:51.947937Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2", "confidence": 0.99, "citations": 5, "tokens_used": 19708, "wall_time_sec": 44.843754529953, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:52.133972Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) launched on December 25, 2021, at │
|
||||||
|
│ 12:20 UTC (7:20 AM ET) aboard an Arianespace Ariane 5 ECA+ rocket (Flight │
|
||||||
|
│ VA256) from the Guiana Space Centre (ELA-3) in Kourou, French Guiana. It │
|
||||||
|
│ entered service on July 12, 2022. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ James Webb Space Telescope - │ Launch date: 25 December 2021 │ 0.99 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Wikipedia │ (2021-12-25), 12:20 UTC | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki │ Rocket: Ariane 5 ECA+ (S/N │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /James_Webb_Space_Telescope │ 5113, Flight VA256) | Launch │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ site: Guiana, ELA-3 | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Contractor: Arianespace | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Entered service: 12 July 2022 │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ The Launch of the James Webb │ On December 25, 2021, and 7:20 │ 0.98 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Space Telescope - YouTube │ AM ET (12:20 UTC), the James │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.youtube.com/watch │ Webb Space Telescope was │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ?v=9tXlqWldVVk │ launched by an ArianeSpace │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Ariane 5 rocket from │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ James Webb Space Telescope │ The launch date was Saturday, │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (JWST) Mission (Ariane 5) - │ December 25, 2021 at 12:20 PM │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ RocketLaunch.Live │ (UTC). │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.rocketlaunch.live │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /launch/jwst │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ James Webb Space Telescope – │ JWST's launch date was │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ College of Science │ December 25 from Europe's │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://science.utah.edu/news │ Spaceport in Kourou, French │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /james-webb-space-telescope/ │ Guiana. Longtime fans of the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ telescope are celebrating it │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ as a Christmas miracle. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ NASA's James Webb Space │ Liftoff is at 7:20 a.m. EST │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Telescope officially set to │ (1220 GMT). │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ launch Dec. 24 | Space │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.space.com/james-w │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ebb-space-telescope-launch-da │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ te-confirmed │ │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Space.com headline │ The Space.com article │
|
||||||
|
│ │ discrepancy │ headline references Dec. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 24, which was the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ announced/planned launch │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ date at time of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ publication, while the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ actual launch occurred on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Dec. 25, 2021. This is a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pre-launch announcement │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ artifact, not a true │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ contradiction, and all │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ other sources confirm │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Dec. 25. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ James Webb Space │ JWST entered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Telescope first │ service on July │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ science results │ 12, 2022; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ July 2022 │ understanding its │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ early science │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ results provides │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ context for its │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ operational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ impact. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ JWST launch │ The telescope was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ delays history │ originally │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ original 2007 │ planned to launch │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ launch plan │ in 2007 but faced │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ decades of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ delays, making │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ the history of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ its development │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ noteworthy. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What were the key milestones │ Wikipedia notes the telescope │
|
||||||
|
│ │ after JWST's launch during its │ entered service on July 12, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ commissioning phase before │ 2022, approximately six months │
|
||||||
|
│ │ entering service on July 12, │ after its December 25, 2021 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2022? │ launch, suggesting a lengthy │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ commissioning process. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ What caused JWST's launch to │ Space.com's article was titled │
|
||||||
|
│ │ slip from December 24 to │ with a Dec. 24 launch date, but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ December 25, 2021? │ the actual launch occurred on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Dec. 25, suggesting a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ last-minute slip. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How does JWST's actual mission │ Wikipedia lists a 10-year │
|
||||||
|
│ │ performance compare to its │ planned and 20-year expected │
|
||||||
|
│ │ planned 10-year operational │ life; precise launch trajectory │
|
||||||
|
│ │ lifespan given its fuel │ reportedly left more fuel than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ efficiency during launch? │ expected, potentially extending │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the mission. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.99 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 5 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 1.00 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: under cap │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 19708 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 44.84s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 91e87d05-6d23-4377-af13-270a8cf701e2
|
||||||
179
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/03-factual.log
Normal file
179
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/03-factual.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,179 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: What programming language is the Linux kernel primarily written in?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What programming language is the Linux kernel primarily written in?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:52.691750Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:53.397487Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:53.405825Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What programming language is the Linux kernel primarily written in?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:53.438393Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "What programming language is the Linux kernel primarily written in?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:53.438693Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:50:53.438784Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1096, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:51:04.950078Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 12, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 7266, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:51:15.609351Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 14, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 16, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 18342, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:51:38.886838Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 15, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 38497, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:16.247727Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 26, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.97, "citation_count": 6, "gap_count": 2, "discovery_count": 2, "total_duration_sec": 85.024, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:16.248500Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.97, "citations": 6, "gaps": 2, "discovery_events": 2, "tokens_used": 32922, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 82.80920100212097, "budget_exhausted": false, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:16.248601Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:16.248962Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:16.252134Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9", "confidence": 0.97, "citations": 6, "tokens_used": 32922, "wall_time_sec": 82.80920100212097, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:16.444923Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ The Linux kernel is primarily written in the C programming language, │
|
||||||
|
│ specifically the GNU dialect of ISO C11 (compiled with GCC under -std=gnu11, │
|
||||||
|
│ or alternatively with Clang). Assembly language is also used for │
|
||||||
|
│ architecture-specific low-level code. As of late 2022, Rust became an │
|
||||||
|
│ officially supported second language in the kernel, and as of the 2025 Linux │
|
||||||
|
│ Kernel Maintainer Summit, Rust was elevated from 'experimental' to a │
|
||||||
|
│ permanent, first-class core language alongside C. According to Open Hub │
|
||||||
|
│ statistics, C accounts for approximately 95.8% of total lines in the kernel │
|
||||||
|
│ codebase, with Assembly at ~0.7% and Rust at ~0.3%. The kernel also uses │
|
||||||
|
│ small amounts of shell script, Python, Make, and Perl for tooling purposes. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Programming Language — The │ The Linux kernel is written in │ 1.00 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Linux Kernel documentation │ the C programming language. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://docs.kernel.org/proce │ More precisely, it is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ss/programming-language.html │ typically compiled with gcc │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ under -std=gnu11: the GNU │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dialect of ISO C11. clang is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ also supported. The kernel has │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ support for the Rust │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ programming language under │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ CONFIG_RUST. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ The Linux Kernel Open Source │ C | 36,226,652 | 5,218,548 | │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Project on Open Hub: │ 12.6% | 5,867,314 | 47,312,514 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Languages Page │ | 95.8% ... Assembly | 266,797 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://openhub.net/p/linux/a │ | 50,339 | 15.9% | 49,347 | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nalyses/latest/languages_summ │ 366,483 | 0.7% ... Rust | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ary │ 90,778 | 35,328 | 28.0% | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 11,361 | 137,467 | 0.3% │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Rust moves from experiment to │ The consensus among the │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ a core Linux kernel language │ assembled developers is that │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ - Spiceworks │ Rust in the kernel is no │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.spiceworks.com/so │ longer experimental — it is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ftware/rust-moves-from-experi │ now a core part of the kernel │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ment-to-a-core-linux-kernel-l │ and is here to stay. So the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ anguage/ │ 'experimental' tag will be │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ coming off. This elevates Rust │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to being the kernel's second │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ core language alongside C. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Why Linux Kernel is written │ Although the current Linux │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in C-language but not in C++? │ Kernel source-code contain │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://thelinuxchannel.org/2 │ certain parts of the code │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 024/06/why-linux-kernel-is-wr │ written in assembly code │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ itten-in-c-language-but-not-i │ (actually native CPU assembly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ n-c-thelinuxchannel-kernelpro │ instructions) and recently │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ gramming/ │ certain parts of code written │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in Rust Language, majority of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the Linux Kernel source-code │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is only written in C Language. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Linux Kernel Contributors And │ The Linux kernel crossed the │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Lines of Code Statistics 2026 │ 40 million line threshold with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://commandlinux.com/stat │ version 6.14 rc1 in January │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ istics/linux-kernel-contribut │ 2025, containing precisely │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ors-lines-of-code-statistics/ │ 40,063,856 lines. This │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ represents exponential growth │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ from the original 10,239 lines │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in version 0.01 released in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 1991. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Rust for Linux - Wikipedia │ Initial release | October 1, │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki │ 2022; 3 years ago (2022-10-01) │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /Rust_for_Linux │ | Written in | Rust | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Operating system | Linux | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ License | GPL-2.0-only with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Linux-syscall-note. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Exact current percentage │ Open Hub statistics may │
|
||||||
|
│ │ of Rust code in the most │ not reflect the most │
|
||||||
|
│ │ recent kernel versions │ recent kernel releases │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (6.12+) │ (6.14+), so the exact │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ current Rust percentage │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ could be slightly higher │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ than 0.3% given active │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Rust adoption. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Whether C++ is │ Open Hub reports C++ at │
|
||||||
|
│ │ officially used in any │ 1.9% of total lines, yet │
|
||||||
|
│ │ part of the kernel │ official kernel docs and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ community sources say C │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is the language and C++ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is not used. The C++ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ lines may be in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tools/scripts not in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ kernel proper. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ Linux kernel Rust │ Rust is growing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ adoption rate │ quickly in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2025 lines of │ kernel; updated │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ code percentage │ statistics on its │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ share would be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ valuable │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ Linux kernel C++ │ Open Hub shows │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ code usage tools │ ~1.9% C++ but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ vs kernel proper │ official docs do │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ not mention C++; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ clarifying │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ whether this is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ tooling code vs │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ kernel code would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ resolve the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ apparent │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ discrepancy │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Will Rust eventually surpass │ Rust is at ~0.3% and Assembly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Assembly in lines of code │ at ~0.7% per Open Hub; with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ within the Linux kernel? │ active Rust driver development, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Rust may soon exceed Assembly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ usage. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ What is the roadmap for Rust │ Rust is now a first-class │
|
||||||
|
│ │ adoption in specific kernel │ language, but the Spiceworks │
|
||||||
|
│ │ subsystems? │ article notes the focus is on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 'where, how fast, and under │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ whose terms does Rust spread │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ inside Linux'. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ Why does Open Hub report ~1.9% │ Open Hub's language breakdown │
|
||||||
|
│ │ C++ in the Linux kernel │ shows 568,053 code lines of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ codebase when official │ C++, which may belong to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ documentation does not mention │ userspace tools or build │
|
||||||
|
│ │ C++ as a supported kernel │ infrastructure bundled in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ language? │ same repository. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 6 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 1.00 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: under cap │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 32922 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 82.81s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 710b0a62-06c8-4f49-83e3-dc651c3702a9
|
||||||
115
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/04-factual.log
Normal file
115
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/04-factual.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,115 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: What is the capital of Mongolia?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What is the capital of Mongolia?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:16.982178Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:17.707574Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:17.715766Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What is the capital of Mongolia?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:17.748116Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "What is the capital of Mongolia?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:17.748504Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:17.748598Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 5, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1043, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:25.126703Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 5, "iterations_run": 2, "tokens_used": 5387, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:38.025310Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 8, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 19958, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:56.937541Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 14, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.99, "citation_count": 4, "gap_count": 0, "discovery_count": 1, "total_duration_sec": 41.287, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:56.938235Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.99, "citations": 4, "gaps": 0, "discovery_events": 1, "tokens_used": 11009, "iterations_run": 2, "wall_time_sec": 39.189372301101685, "budget_exhausted": false, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:56.938337Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:56.938738Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:56.942176Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1", "confidence": 0.99, "citations": 4, "tokens_used": 11009, "wall_time_sec": 39.189372301101685, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:57.144089Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ The capital of Mongolia is Ulaanbaatar (also spelled Ulan Bator). It is the │
|
||||||
|
│ largest city in Mongolia, situated at an elevation of 1,350 meters on the │
|
||||||
|
│ Tuul River, and is known as the coldest national capital in the world. The │
|
||||||
|
│ name 'Ulaanbaatar' means 'red hero' in Mongolian. It is home to over half of │
|
||||||
|
│ Mongolia's population of approximately 3 million people. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Ulaanbaatar - Wikipedia │ Ulaanbaatar is the capital of │ 0.99 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki │ Mongolia, and is home to over │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /Ulaanbaatar │ half the country's population │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of about 3 million people. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Human habitation dates back │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ more than 300,000 years. The │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ city is located along the Tuul │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ River Valley. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia | NASA │ Ulaanbaatar is the capital of │ 0.99 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Jet Propulsion Laboratory │ Mongolia, and is home to over │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (JPL) │ half the country's population │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/imag │ of about 3 million people. Due │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ es/pia26289-ulaanbaatar-mongo │ to its location deep in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ lia/ │ interior of Asia, and its high │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ elevation, Ulaanbaatar is the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ coldest national capital in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the world. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Capital of Mongolia | - │ Ulaanbaatar (Ulan Bator) is │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Everything You Need to Know │ capital of Mongolia known as │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ About Ulaanbaatar │ the coldest capital on earth. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.travelbuddies.inf │ It is located in central Asia │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ o/capital-of-mongolia/ │ between China and Russia and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ capital and largest city of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Mongolia. Ulaan is red and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Baatar is hero in Mongolian. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ In general, Ulaanbaatar means │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 'red hero'. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Ulan Bator, Mongolia | │ Ulaanbaatar, also known as │ 0.98 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Geography and Cartography | │ Ulan Bator, is the capital and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Research Starters | EBSCO │ largest city of Mongolia, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Research │ situated at an elevation of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.ebsco.com/researc │ 1,350 meters (4,430 feet) on │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ h-starters/geography-and-cart │ the Tuul River in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ography/ulan-bator-mongolia │ northeast of the Mongolian │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ plateau. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ Ulaanbaatar air │ Multiple sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pollution and │ mention severe │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ climate │ air pollution and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ challenges │ extreme cold as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ notable │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ characteristics │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ of the capital │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ worth exploring │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ further. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ low │ How has Ulaanbaatar's │ Sources mention dramatic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ population grown over recent │ population increases due to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ decades due to rural-to-urban │ migration from rural areas, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ migration? │ with population estimates │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ranging from 1.4 million to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ over 1.6 million across │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What measures is Ulaanbaatar │ Multiple sources note that coal │
|
||||||
|
│ │ taking to address its severe │ reliance and extreme winters │
|
||||||
|
│ │ air pollution problem? │ cause significant air pollution │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in the city. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.99 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 1.00 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: under cap │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 11009 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 2 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 39.19s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: ffc42162-5527-4a35-97ad-474aafa47dc1
|
||||||
148
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/05-factual.log
Normal file
148
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/05-factual.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: How many amino acids are encoded by the standard genetic code?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "How many amino acids are encoded by the standard genetic code?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:57.672745Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:58.404691Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:58.415522Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "How many amino acids are encoded by the standard genetic code?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:58.449581Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "How many amino acids are encoded by the standard genetic code?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:58.449885Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:52:58.449974Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1099, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:53:06.468160Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 12, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 8623, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:53:11.359260Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 17, "decision": "Starting iteration 4/5", "tokens_so_far": 18453, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:53:15.589960Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 19, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 14, "iterations_run": 4, "tokens_used": 34167, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:53:38.361461Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 20, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 24174, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:01.506420Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 28, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.98, "citation_count": 4, "gap_count": 1, "discovery_count": 2, "total_duration_sec": 65.235, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:01.507373Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.98, "citations": 4, "gaps": 1, "discovery_events": 2, "tokens_used": 48308, "iterations_run": 4, "wall_time_sec": 63.05677556991577, "budget_exhausted": false, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:01.507469Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:01.507940Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:01.514127Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2", "confidence": 0.98, "citations": 4, "tokens_used": 48308, "wall_time_sec": 63.05677556991577, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:01.785150Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ The standard genetic code encodes 20 common amino acids. These are specified │
|
||||||
|
│ by 64 possible codons (combinations of three nucleotides from four bases), │
|
||||||
|
│ with most amino acids encoded by more than one codon (a property called │
|
||||||
|
│ degeneracy). Methionine and tryptophan are the only amino acids specified by │
|
||||||
|
│ a single codon each. Three codons serve as stop signals rather than encoding │
|
||||||
|
│ amino acids. Beyond the standard 20, two additional amino │
|
||||||
|
│ acids—selenocysteine (the 21st) and pyrrolysine (the 22nd)—are also │
|
||||||
|
│ genetically encoded in certain organisms via reprogramming of stop codons │
|
||||||
|
│ UGA and UAG, respectively, but are not part of the standard set of 20. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ The genetic code (article) - │ Most of the amino acids in the │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Khan Academy │ genetic code are encoded by at │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.khanacademy.org/s │ least two codons. In fact, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cience/hs-bio/x230b3ff252126b │ methionine and tryptophan are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ b6:gene-expression-and-regula │ the only amino acids specified │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tion/x230b3ff252126bb6:untitl │ by a single codon. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ed-348/a/the-genetic-code │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Is there a twenty third amino │ The universal genetic code │ 0.98 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ acid in the genetic code? - │ includes 20 common amino │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ PubMed │ acids. In addition, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.g │ selenocysteine (Sec) and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ov/16713651/ │ pyrrolysine (Pyl), known as │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the twenty first and twenty │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ second amino acids, are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ encoded by UGA and UAG, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ respectively, which are the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ codons that usually function │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ as stop signals. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Genetic code - Wikipedia │ The genetic code is highly │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki │ similar among all organisms │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /Genetic_code │ and can be expressed in a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ simple table with 64 entries. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ The codons specify which amino │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ acid will be added next during │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ protein biosynthesis. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Understanding the Genetic │ The universal │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Code - PMC │ triple-nucleotide genetic │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ code, allowing DNA-encoded │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC6620406/ │ mRNA to be translated into the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ amino acid sequences of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ proteins using transfer RNAs │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (tRNAs) and many accessory and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ modification factors, is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ essentially common to all │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ living organisms on Earth. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Exact codon-to-amino-acid │ The full detailed codon │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mapping table │ table listing all 64 codons │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and their corresponding │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ amino acids was not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ extracted verbatim from the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources, though the total │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ count of 20 standard amino │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ acids is well established. │
|
||||||
|
└────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ selenocysteine │ The PubMed source │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pyrrolysine │ raises the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ genetic code │ question of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ expansion │ expanded genetic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ organisms │ codes beyond 20 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ amino acids, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ which may be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ relevant for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ advanced biology │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ research. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ synthetic biology │ Wikipedia │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ unnatural amino │ mentions expanded │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ acids expanded │ genetic codes in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ genetic code │ synthetic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ biology, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ suggesting active │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ research into │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ adding more than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ 22 amino acids. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Could a 23rd amino acid ever │ A PubMed study scanned 16 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ become widely distributed and │ archaeal and 130 bacterial │
|
||||||
|
│ │ genetically encoded in nature? │ genomes for tRNAs corresponding │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to the three stop codons and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ concluded that additional │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ widely distributed genetically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ encoded amino acids are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ unlikely. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ How many non-standard amino │ Wikipedia references expanded │
|
||||||
|
│ │ acids have been successfully │ genetic codes in synthetic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ incorporated into proteins via │ biology as a distinct topic, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ synthetic biology methods? │ suggesting │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ laboratory-engineered codes may │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ go beyond the natural 22. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.98 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 1.00 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: under cap │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 48308 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 63.06s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 7561029e-5dcb-4eaa-98e9-7496ed4bf4c2
|
||||||
226
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/06-comparative.log
Normal file
226
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/06-comparative.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,226 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Compare the energy density of lithium-ion vs sodium-ion batteries.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare the energy density of lithium-ion vs sodium-ion batteries.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:02.430608Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:03.159945Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:03.167971Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare the energy density of lithium-ion vs sodium-ion batteries.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:03.200030Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Compare the energy density of lithium-ion vs sodium-ion batteries.", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:03.200318Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:03.200405Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1114, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:14.560598Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 12, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 7183, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:18.314755Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 19, "decision": "Starting iteration 4/5", "tokens_so_far": 13977, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:28.528912Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 24, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 5: 28015/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:39.027627Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 25, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 24, "iterations_run": 4, "tokens_used": 28015, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:54:39.028531Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 26, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 50955, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:27.614289Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 41, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.91, "citation_count": 8, "gap_count": 3, "discovery_count": 3, "total_duration_sec": 87.865, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:27.616834Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.91, "citations": 8, "gaps": 3, "discovery_events": 3, "tokens_used": 48087, "iterations_run": 4, "wall_time_sec": 84.41376757621765, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:27.617014Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:27.617866Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:27.632124Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1", "confidence": 0.91, "citations": 8, "tokens_used": 48087, "wall_time_sec": 84.41376757621765, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:27.873634Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Lithium-ion batteries have significantly higher energy density than │
|
||||||
|
│ sodium-ion batteries across all commercial chemistries. Lithium-ion cells │
|
||||||
|
│ achieve 150–300 Wh/kg gravimetrically, depending on chemistry: NMC variants │
|
||||||
|
│ reach 250–300 Wh/kg in premium automotive applications, while LFP cells │
|
||||||
|
│ deliver 150–180 Wh/kg [Source 15]. Volumetrically, lithium-ion batteries │
|
||||||
|
│ reach roughly 250–700 Wh/L [Source 16]. Sodium-ion batteries currently │
|
||||||
|
│ achieve 90–190 Wh/kg gravimetrically; CATL's first-generation commercial │
|
||||||
|
│ cells reached ~160 Wh/kg [Source 15], with newer products like CATL's Naxtra │
|
||||||
|
│ reaching ~175 Wh/kg [Source 22], and ScienceDirect prototypes ranging 90–150 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wh/kg [Source 7]. The volumetric energy density of sodium-ion is │
|
||||||
|
│ approximately 20–40% lower than lithium-ion equivalents [Source 8]. This gap │
|
||||||
|
│ exists fundamentally because sodium ions are heavier and larger than lithium │
|
||||||
|
│ ions, reducing the energy stored per unit mass or volume [Source 3, Source │
|
||||||
|
│ 20]. A notable exception is a late-2025 announcement by ZN Energy of an │
|
||||||
|
│ anode-free solid-state sodium-ion pouch cell achieving 348.5 Wh/kg, verified │
|
||||||
|
│ by CATARC, using a high-energy layered oxide cathode and anode-free │
|
||||||
|
│ solid-state architecture—though this is a laboratory/prototype result, not │
|
||||||
|
│ yet commercial [Source 10]. In practical terms, sodium-ion batteries are │
|
||||||
|
│ best suited for stationary storage and cost-sensitive low-performance EVs │
|
||||||
|
│ where energy density is less critical, while lithium-ion dominates portable │
|
||||||
|
│ electronics, robotics, and long-range EVs [Source 1, Source 8]. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Battery Energy Density 2025: │ Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ State of the Art & Next-Gen │ variants deliver the highest │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Tech │ energy densities at the cell │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://timharper.net/fieldno │ level, reaching 250-300 Wh/kg │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tes/battery-energy-density-20 │ in premium automotive │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 25/ │ applications... Sodium-ion │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ batteries have emerged from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ laboratory curiosity to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ commercial reality, with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ CATL's first-generation cells │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ achieving 160 Wh/kg energy │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ density. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Sodium ion batteries: A │ Current prototypes of SIBs │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sustainable alternative to │ have energy densities of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ lithium-ion ... │ 90–150 Wh/kg, which remain │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.sciencedirect.com │ lower than the 130–285 Wh/kg │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /science/article/pii/S2949821 │ typically achieved │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ X25002418 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Sodium-ion batteries: Should │ Sodium is heavier than │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ we believe the hype? │ lithium, and its ions are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://cen.acs.org/energy/en │ larger, resulting in a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ergy-storage-/Sodium-ion-batt │ volumetric energy density that │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ eries-Should-believe/103/web/ │ is 20–40% less than that of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2025/11 │ lithium ion. Consequently, a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sodium-ion battery is bigger │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and heavier than an equivalent │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ one made with lithium. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Energy Density of Lithium-Ion │ Modern lithium-ion batteries │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Batteries Explained: Wh/kg vs │ achieve 150-300 Wh/kg and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Wh/L │ 250-700 Wh/L, depending on │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.longsingtech.com/ │ chemistry and design. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ energy-density-of-lithium-ion │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -batteries/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Sodium Ion vs Lithium Ion │ Energy Density (Gravimetric): │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Batteries: 2026 Comparison & │ Sodium-ion typically ranges │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Key Advantages │ from 100–175 Wh/kg (e.g., │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://chargeprotexas.com/so │ CATL's Naxtra at ~175 Wh/kg). │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dium-ion-vs-lithium-ion-batte │ Lithium-ion hits 150–250+ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ries-2026-comparison/ │ Wh/kg (LFP: 150–210; NMC: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 240–350). │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ ZN Energy Breaks Sodium-Ion │ Its >25Ah large-format AFSSSIB │ 0.78 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Battery Density Record at │ pouch cell achieved a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 348.5Wh/kg │ gravimetric energy density of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.linkedin.com/post │ 348.5Wh/kg, verified by CATARC │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s/jerry-wan-069b41105_breakin │ (China Automotive Technology & │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ g-the-sodium-ceiling-zhaona-e │ Research Center, Tianjin). │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nergy-activity-74134108276403 │ This is not an incremental │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 20000-NHd_ │ improvement—it directly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ challenges the long-held │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ assumption that sodium │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ chemistry is structurally │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ capped at 'low energy │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ density.' │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Sodium as a Green Substitute │ But there are also downsides │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for Lithium in Batteries │ to sodium-ion batteries, the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://physics.aps.org/artic │ top one being a lower energy │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ les/v17/73 │ density than their lithium-ion │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ counterparts. Energy density │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ has a direct bearing on the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ driving range of an electric │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ vehicle. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Sodium-Ion vs Lithium-Ion │ lithium-ion batteries dominate │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Batteries Differences and │ high-performance applications │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Applications in 2025 │ like consumer electronics and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.large-battery.com │ robotics, owing to their │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /blog/na-ion-vs-li-ion-batter │ superior energy density of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ies-2025/ │ 100–270 Wh/kg. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Volumetric energy │ Most sources provide │
|
||||||
|
│ │ density figures for │ gravimetric (Wh/kg) data │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sodium-ion batteries │ for sodium-ion; specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Wh/L volumetric figures │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ for sodium-ion cells at │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the commercial pack level │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ were not found in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Independent verification │ The 348.5 Wh/kg result │
|
||||||
|
│ │ of ZN Energy 348.5 Wh/kg │ for sodium-ion is from a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ claim │ LinkedIn post summarizing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ a company announcement. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ No peer-reviewed or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ independent third-party │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ publication was found to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ corroborate this figure. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Cycle life vs energy │ While cycle life is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ density trade-offs in │ mentioned in some │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sodium-ion │ sources, a detailed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ quantitative comparison │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of how energy density │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ degrades over cycle life │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ compared to lithium-ion │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ was not covered in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ arxiv │ anode-free │ ZN Energy's 348.5 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ solid-state │ Wh/kg claim would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sodium-ion │ benefit from │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ battery energy │ peer-reviewed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ density 2025 │ validation on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ arXiv or similar │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ preprint server. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ sodium-ion │ Volumetric energy │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ battery │ density for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ volumetric energy │ sodium-ion at the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ density Wh/L │ cell and pack │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ commercial cells │ level is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2025 │ underrepresented │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ in current │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ layered oxide │ Multiple sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cathode │ mention cathode │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sodium-ion │ engineering as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ specific capacity │ the key │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cycle stability │ bottleneck for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2025 │ sodium-ion energy │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ density │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ improvement. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Will sodium-ion batteries ever │ ZN Energy's prototype achieved │
|
||||||
|
│ │ match or exceed LFP lithium-ion │ 348.5 Wh/kg, but commercial │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in gravimetric energy density │ CATL sodium-ion cells are at │
|
||||||
|
│ │ at the commercial pack level? │ ~160–175 Wh/kg while LFP cells │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ are 150–180 Wh/kg. The gap is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ closing in prototypes but not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ yet in commercial products. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How does energy density change │ Sources mention sodium-ion's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ over the cycle life of │ lower risk of thermal runaway │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sodium-ion vs lithium-ion │ and good low-temperature │
|
||||||
|
│ │ batteries under real-world │ performance, but long-term │
|
||||||
|
│ │ conditions? │ energy density retention data │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ was not found. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the volumetric energy │ C&EN states volumetric density │
|
||||||
|
│ │ density (Wh/L) of current │ is 20–40% lower than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ commercial sodium-ion battery │ lithium-ion but provides no │
|
||||||
|
│ │ packs? │ absolute Wh/L figures for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sodium-ion. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.91 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 8 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 48087 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 84.41s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: aaf3b9ef-d91a-4d03-8883-b0a906929cb1
|
||||||
350
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/07-comparative.log
Normal file
350
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/07-comparative.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,350 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Compare PostgreSQL and SQLite for embedded analytics workloads.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare PostgreSQL and SQLite for embedded analytics workloads.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:28.499294Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:29.256154Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:29.264747Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare PostgreSQL and SQLite for embedded analytics workloads.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:29.297908Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Compare PostgreSQL and SQLite for embedded analytics workloads.", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:29.298261Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:29.298356Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 9, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1147, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:38.957520Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 16, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 8781, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:55:45.812510Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Starting iteration 4/5", "tokens_so_far": 18324, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:56:00.757335Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 28, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 5: 34877/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:56:03.990690Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 29, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 35, "iterations_run": 4, "tokens_used": 34877, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:56:03.990849Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 30, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 78663, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:20.513065Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 48, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.88, "citation_count": 10, "gap_count": 3, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 114.441, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:20.536570Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.88, "citations": 10, "gaps": 3, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 61699, "iterations_run": 4, "wall_time_sec": 111.20896744728088, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:20.538075Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:20.546420Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:20.668474Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755", "confidence": 0.88, "citations": 10, "tokens_used": 61699, "wall_time_sec": 111.20896744728088, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:21.511598Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ PostgreSQL and SQLite differ substantially for embedded analytics workloads │
|
||||||
|
│ across architecture, concurrency, feature set, and performance │
|
||||||
|
│ characteristics. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Architecture:** SQLite is a serverless, embedded database engine that │
|
||||||
|
│ reads/writes a single file on disk, making it highly portable and │
|
||||||
|
│ zero-configuration. PostgreSQL uses a client-server architecture requiring a │
|
||||||
|
│ separate server process, which enables it to scale and handle multiple │
|
||||||
|
│ concurrent clients efficiently via Multi-Version Concurrency Control (MVCC) │
|
||||||
|
│ [Source 5]. For embedded analytics specifically, SQLite's in-process nature │
|
||||||
|
│ eliminates network overhead, which can yield significant read performance │
|
||||||
|
│ advantages in local scenarios [Source 31]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Concurrency:** SQLite allows multiple concurrent readers but only one │
|
||||||
|
│ writer at a time, using file-level locking. This single-writer model is a │
|
||||||
|
│ significant bottleneck for write-heavy or high-concurrency analytical │
|
||||||
|
│ ingestion workloads [Source 24, Source 25]. PostgreSQL's MVCC ensures │
|
||||||
|
│ readers and writers do not block each other, making it far superior for │
|
||||||
|
│ multi-user or mixed OLTP/OLAP environments [Source 5]. Turso's work on │
|
||||||
|
│ concurrent writes for SQLite demonstrates the community recognizes this │
|
||||||
|
│ limitation, achieving up to 4x write throughput improvements over vanilla │
|
||||||
|
│ SQLite [Source 24]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **OLAP/Analytical Performance:** SQLite is row-oriented and was designed │
|
||||||
|
│ primarily as a world-class OLTP engine. For analytical workloads—complex │
|
||||||
|
│ aggregations, percentile calculations, large scans—SQLite struggles │
|
||||||
|
│ significantly. A cited benchmark shows a single percentile query over 13M │
|
||||||
|
│ rows taking ~4 seconds in SQLite [Source 6]. PostgreSQL, while also │
|
||||||
|
│ row-oriented, supports more advanced SQL features (window functions, complex │
|
||||||
|
│ joins, partitioning) and can be tuned for analytics [Source 22]. However, │
|
||||||
|
│ PostgreSQL itself hits a 'Postgres Wall' for heavy analytical workloads when │
|
||||||
|
│ row-scanning large datasets exceeds available RAM [Source 13]. Neither │
|
||||||
|
│ SQLite nor PostgreSQL is natively columnar; PostgreSQL can be extended with │
|
||||||
|
│ columnar storage extensions for better OLAP performance [Source 23]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Feature Set:** PostgreSQL offers a richer feature set including more data │
|
||||||
|
│ types, advanced indexing, role-based access control, JSON/array support, │
|
||||||
|
│ geospatial extensions (PostGIS), and time-series extensions. SQLite uses │
|
||||||
|
│ dynamic typing and has a simpler, more limited feature set—easier to use but │
|
||||||
|
│ potentially limiting for complex analytical applications [Source 5, Source │
|
||||||
|
│ 1]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Recommended Alternatives for Embedded Analytics:** DuckDB is widely cited │
|
||||||
|
│ as the superior embedded engine for analytical workloads, outperforming both │
|
||||||
|
│ SQLite and PostgreSQL on OLAP queries by a large margin [Source 6, Source │
|
||||||
|
│ 2]. For embedded analytics use cases requiring columnar processing, DuckDB │
|
||||||
|
│ or Stoolap (a Rust-based embedded OLAP engine) are more purpose-built │
|
||||||
|
│ options. Stoolap benchmarks show up to 138x faster analytical query │
|
||||||
|
│ performance versus SQLite [Source 9]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Summary:** SQLite wins for lightweight, read-heavy, single-writer, │
|
||||||
|
│ local/embedded OLTP workloads where portability and zero configuration │
|
||||||
|
│ matter. PostgreSQL wins for multi-user, concurrent, complex-query │
|
||||||
|
│ environments. For true embedded analytics workloads (large-scale │
|
||||||
|
│ aggregations, complex OLAP queries), neither is optimal—DuckDB or a hybrid │
|
||||||
|
│ architecture (PostgreSQL as system-of-record + DuckDB as analytical engine) │
|
||||||
|
│ is the modern recommended approach. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ SQLite vs. PostgreSQL: The │ PostgreSQL is a client-server │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ key differences and │ database system... This │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ advantages of each │ architecture enables │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://databaseschool.com/ar │ PostgreSQL to scale and handle │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ticles/sqlite-vs-postgresql-t │ multiple concurrent clients │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ he-key-differences-and-advant │ efficiently... SQLite is a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ages-of-each │ serverless database engine. It │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ functions as a lightweight │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ library embedded directly into │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ applications... SQLite's │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ concurrency model is more │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ restrictive: while it allows │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ multiple readers, only one │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ process can write to the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ database at a time. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Making -SQLite- Analytics │ In some analytical queries │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Great Again! – Oldmoe's blog │ SQLite will struggle to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://oldmoe.blog/2025/03/1 │ perform compared to other OLAP │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2/making-sqlite-analytics-gre │ oriented engines like DuckDB. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ at-again/ │ Consider the following │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ scenario: You have a table │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ with 13M entries of latency │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ data, and you want to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ determine the following │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ percentiles: p50, p95, p99... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ After around 4 seconds you │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ will see the result. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ DuckDB vs. Postgres for │ That 'quick' analytical query │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ embedded analytics: How to │ powering a customer-facing │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ choose (and when to use a │ dashboard now takes 5 seconds, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hybrid architecture) │ up from 50 milliseconds. Then │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://motherduck.com/learn- │ thirty seconds. Then it times │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ more/duckdb-vs-postgres-embed │ out. You've hit the 'Postgres │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ded-analytics/ │ Wall.' This isn't a Postgres │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ failure. It's an architectural │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mismatch. Postgres processes │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ analytics using the same │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ row-oriented logic designed │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ for transaction safety. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Beyond the Single-Writer │ SQLite has a single-writer │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Limitation with Turso's │ transaction model, which means │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Concurrent Writes │ whenever a transaction writes │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://turso.tech/blog/beyon │ to the database, no other │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ d-the-single-writer-limitatio │ write transactions can make │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ n-with-tursos-concurrent-writ │ progress until that │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ es │ transaction is complete... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ When concurrent writes are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ used, we achieve up to 4x the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ write throughput of SQLite, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ while also removing the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dreaded SQLITE_BUSY error. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Stoolap vs. SQLite: Comparing │ OLAP (Online Analytical │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Rust OLAP and Traditional │ Processing) systems are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ OLTP Databases | Better Stack │ designed for a completely │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Community │ different purpose. OLAP │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://betterstack.com/commu │ databases are optimized for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nity/guides/ai/stoolap-vs-sql │ complex queries and data │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ite/ │ analysis... Most standard │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ application databases, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ including SQLite, PostgreSQL, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and MySQL, are classified as │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ OLTP (Online Transaction │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Processing) systems. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Postgres Tuning & Performance │ Analytics or OLAP activity │ 0.91 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for Analytics Data | Crunchy │ typically involves much │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Data Blog │ longer, more complex queries │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.crunchydata.com/b │ than OLTP activity, joining │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ log/postgres-tuning-and-perfo │ data from multiple tables, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ rmance-for-analytics-data │ working on large data sets. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ This means it's very resource │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ intensive. Without careful │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ planning and tuning, you can │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ find yourself with analytics │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ queries that not only take far │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ too long to run, but also slow │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ down your existing │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ application. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Postgres Columnar Storage: 4 │ PostgreSQL is a row-oriented │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Popular Extensions and a │ database by design, meaning it │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Quick Tutorial │ stores data tuple-by-tuple... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.epsio.io/blog/pos │ This structure is suitable for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tgres-columnar-storage-4-popu │ transactional workloads but │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ lar-extensions-and-a-quick-tu │ not optimized for analytical │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ torial │ queries that typically scan │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ large volumes of data across a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ few columns... While │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ PostgreSQL does not natively │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ support columnar storage, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ several extensions and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ external tools introduce │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ columnar capabilities. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ SQLite vs PostgreSQL │ SQLite was faster. Of course │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Performance & Comparison | │ it was. Writing to a local │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Pythonic AF │ file inside the same process │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://medium.com/pythonic-a │ will almost always be faster │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ f/sqlite-vs-postgresql-perfor │ than sending queries to a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mance-comparison-46ba1d39c9c8 │ server. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Everyone Is Wrong About │ why SQLite is often the │ 0.80 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ SQLite (Here's When It Beats │ superior production choice for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Postgres) │ read-heavy, single-server, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.youtube.com/watch │ edge workloads ... SQLite vs │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ?v=t20KyfjtUs4 │ PostgreSQL Performance. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ SQLite SO MUCH FASTER than │ Of course, with the advent of │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Postgres - Reddit │ DuckDB, you use DuckDB for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.reddit.com/r/sqli │ data analysis tasks since it │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ te/comments/1gu219r/sqlite_so │ can be faster than either │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ _much_faster_than_postgres/ │ SQLite or PostgreSQL in those │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Quantitative head-to-head │ Most benchmarks found │
|
||||||
|
│ │ benchmark of SQLite vs │ compare SQLite vs │
|
||||||
|
│ │ PostgreSQL specifically on │ PostgreSQL on OLTP │
|
||||||
|
│ │ analytical queries (not │ (reads/writes of individual │
|
||||||
|
│ │ just OLTP) │ rows) or compare each │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ individually to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ DuckDB/Stoolap on OLAP. A │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ direct, rigorous benchmark │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of SQLite vs PostgreSQL on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ complex analytical queries │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (GROUP BY, window │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ functions, aggregations │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ over millions of rows) was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ not surfaced in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ PostgreSQL columnar │ While columnar extensions │
|
||||||
|
│ │ extension performance vs │ for PostgreSQL (e.g., Citus │
|
||||||
|
│ │ SQLite for embedded │ columnar, hydra) are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ analytics │ mentioned, no direct │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ benchmark comparing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ PostgreSQL-with-columnar-ex │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tension vs SQLite for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ embedded analytical │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ workloads was found. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ SQLite WAL mode impact on │ WAL mode is mentioned as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ analytical query │ improving concurrent │
|
||||||
|
│ │ performance │ read/write behavior in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ SQLite, but its specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ impact on analytical query │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ throughput in embedded │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ scenarios was not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ quantified in the evidence. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ DuckDB vs SQLite │ DuckDB is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ vs PostgreSQL │ consistently │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ analytical │ cited as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ benchmark OLAP │ outperforming │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ embedded 2024 │ both for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2025 │ analytics; a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ rigorous │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ three-way │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ comparison would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ better answer the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ embedded │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ analytics │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ question. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ SQLite past │ The VLDB paper on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ present future │ SQLite's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ VLDB paper bloom │ past/present/futu │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ filter analytical │ re is cited │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ performance 2022 │ multiple times as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ authoritative on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ SQLite's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ analytical │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ limitations; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ accessing it │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ directly would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ strengthen │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ claims. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ pg_duckdb │ The motherduck │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ extension │ article │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ PostgreSQL │ references │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ embedded │ pg_duckdb as a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ analytics │ key tool for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ performance │ hybrid │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ hybrid │ Postgres+DuckDB │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ architecture │ analytics; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ benchmarks for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ this approach │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ were not found. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ null │ Stoolap embedded │ Stoolap is an │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ OLAP Rust │ emerging embedded │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ database │ OLAP engine │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ benchmark SQLite │ (Rust) claiming │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ PostgreSQL │ 138x speedup over │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ SQLite; it's a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ relevant new │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ entrant to the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ embedded │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ analytics space. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ At what data volume does │ The evidence shows SQLite │
|
||||||
|
│ │ SQLite's analytical performance │ struggles at 13M rows for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ become unacceptably slow │ percentile queries (~4s), but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compared to PostgreSQL for │ no clear threshold or scaling │
|
||||||
|
│ │ typical embedded analytics │ curve vs PostgreSQL was found. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ workloads? │ │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Does enabling WAL mode and │ Hacker News discussion mentions │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tuning SQLite │ WAL + synchronous=NORMAL as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (synchronous=NORMAL, page size, │ approaching 'line speed with IO │
|
||||||
|
│ │ etc.) meaningfully close the │ subsystem' for writes, but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ analytical performance gap with │ analytical query impact is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ PostgreSQL? │ unclear. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Is a hybrid architecture │ The Postgres+DuckDB hybrid is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (SQLite for OLTP + DuckDB for │ well-documented, but an │
|
||||||
|
│ │ OLAP, sharing the same data) │ SQLite+DuckDB embedded hybrid │
|
||||||
|
│ │ practical for embedded │ (for truly serverless apps) is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ applications, and how does it │ less explored in the evidence. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compare to using PostgreSQL │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ alone? │ │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How do PostgreSQL columnar │ PostgreSQL columnar extensions │
|
||||||
|
│ │ storage extensions (e.g., │ are mentioned as improving OLAP │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Hydra, Citus columnar) perform │ performance, but no direct │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for embedded analytics compared │ comparison to SQLite in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to native SQLite? │ embedded scenarios was found. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the operational │ SQLite's binary is ~500KB vs │
|
||||||
|
│ │ overhead (memory, disk, setup │ PostgreSQL requiring a server │
|
||||||
|
│ │ complexity) of running │ process; for edge/IoT embedded │
|
||||||
|
│ │ PostgreSQL vs SQLite in a truly │ analytics, resource constraints │
|
||||||
|
│ │ embedded edge or mobile │ may be the deciding factor. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ environment? │ │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 10 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: medium │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 61699 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 111.21s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 01881015-61a9-4894-a723-4e1d8b7a7755
|
||||||
364
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/08-comparative.log
Normal file
364
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/08-comparative.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,364 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Compare CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cas12 for in vivo gene editing.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cas12 for in vivo gene editing.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:22.951394Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:23.942406Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:23.953465Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cas12 for in vivo gene editing.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:24.008304Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Compare CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cas12 for in vivo gene editing.", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:24.008814Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:24.008920Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1180, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:42.087229Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 14, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 12270, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:47.632253Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 21, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 25966/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:55.072818Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 22, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 24, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 25966, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:57:55.072985Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 89456, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:21.172200Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 46, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.82, "citation_count": 14, "gap_count": 4, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 121.701, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:21.274347Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.82, "citations": 14, "gaps": 4, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 54153, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 117.15539288520813, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:21.275590Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:21.286942Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:21.531952Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c", "confidence": 0.82, "citations": 14, "tokens_used": 54153, "wall_time_sec": 117.15539288520813, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:22.766505Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cas12a (formerly Cpf1) are both widely used │
|
||||||
|
│ RNA-guided nucleases adapted for genome editing, including in vivo │
|
||||||
|
│ applications, but they differ meaningfully in mechanism, structure, PAM │
|
||||||
|
│ requirements, cutting pattern, guide RNA architecture, specificity, and │
|
||||||
|
│ practical suitability for in vivo delivery. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Mechanism and DNA Cleavage:** Cas9 (most commonly from Streptococcus │
|
||||||
|
│ pyogenes, SpCas9) cleaves both DNA strands at the same position, producing │
|
||||||
|
│ blunt-ended double-strand breaks (DSBs) [Source 7]. Cas12a, by contrast, │
|
||||||
|
│ introduces staggered cuts that leave 4–5 nucleotide 5′ overhangs [Sources 2, │
|
||||||
|
│ 7]. These sticky ends generated by Cas12a may enhance homology-directed │
|
||||||
|
│ repair (HDR) efficiency compared to Cas9's blunt ends [Source 2]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **PAM Sequence:** Cas9 requires an NGG PAM (protospacer adjacent motif) on │
|
||||||
|
│ the non-template strand downstream of the target; Cas12a recognizes a T-rich │
|
||||||
|
│ PAM (typically TTTV) upstream of the target on the non-template strand │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 2, 7]. This difference expands the targeting range of Cas12a to │
|
||||||
|
│ AT-rich genomic regions where Cas9 is limited. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Guide RNA:** Cas9 uses a two-component guide (crRNA + tracrRNA, often │
|
||||||
|
│ fused as sgRNA), while Cas12a requires only a single crRNA with a short │
|
||||||
|
│ direct repeat and processes its own pre-crRNA array, enabling multiplexed │
|
||||||
|
│ editing from a single transcript [Sources 2, 7, 13]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Specificity and Off-Target Effects:** Kinetic studies show Cas12a exhibits │
|
||||||
|
│ greater target specificity than Cas9, attributed to a more stringent DNA │
|
||||||
|
│ unwinding mechanism that requires more extensive complementarity before │
|
||||||
|
│ cleavage [Source 5]. Cas12a tolerates fewer mismatches between the guide RNA │
|
||||||
|
│ and target, resulting in fewer off-target cuts [Sources 2, 5]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Editing Efficiency:** In comparative studies using ribonucleoprotein (RNP) │
|
||||||
|
│ delivery in rice (OsPDS gene), Cas9 and Cas12a showed different efficiencies │
|
||||||
|
│ depending on the target site [Source 1]. In Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, both │
|
||||||
|
│ Cas9 and Cas12a RNPs co-delivered with ssODN repair templates achieved │
|
||||||
|
│ similar total editing levels of 20–30% [Source 4]. Context and target site │
|
||||||
|
│ selection significantly influence which enzyme performs better. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **In Vivo Delivery Considerations:** Both enzymes can be delivered via AAV │
|
||||||
|
│ vectors, lipid nanoparticles (LNPs), or as RNPs via electroporation [Sources │
|
||||||
|
│ 21, 24]. A critical practical consideration is size: SpCas9 (~4.2 kb coding │
|
||||||
|
│ sequence) is near the AAV packaging limit (~4.7–4.8 kb), leaving little room │
|
||||||
|
│ for promoter and regulatory elements [Sources 20, 21]. Cas12a variants │
|
||||||
|
│ (including engineered compact forms such as EbCas12a) can be packaged │
|
||||||
|
│ together with their crRNA within a single AAV vector, which is a significant │
|
||||||
|
│ advantage for in vivo delivery [Sources 19, 20, 21]. A miniature Cas12f1 │
|
||||||
|
│ variant has also demonstrated efficacy for in vivo retinal gene therapy │
|
||||||
|
│ [Source 12]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Clinical and Therapeutic Status:** CRISPR-Cas9 is currently the dominant │
|
||||||
|
│ nuclease in clinical trials for both ex vivo and in vivo genome editing │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 8, 11]. Cas12a is gaining traction in therapeutic research, │
|
||||||
|
│ particularly where higher specificity or AAV-compatible delivery is required │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 9, 13, 22]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Summary Table:** │
|
||||||
|
│ - DNA cut type: Cas9 = blunt; Cas12a = staggered (5′ overhang) │
|
||||||
|
│ - PAM: Cas9 = NGG (3′); Cas12a = TTTV (5′) │
|
||||||
|
│ - Guide RNA: Cas9 = sgRNA (crRNA+tracrRNA); Cas12a = crRNA only │
|
||||||
|
│ - Multiplexing: Cas9 = limited; Cas12a = inherent crRNA array processing │
|
||||||
|
│ - Specificity: Cas12a generally higher │
|
||||||
|
│ - AAV compatibility: Cas12a variants better suited │
|
||||||
|
│ - Clinical use: Cas9 more established; Cas12a emerging │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ What's the Difference Between │ Cas9...cleaves both strands of │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cas9 and Cas12a Nucleases? | │ DNA at the same point. This │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ The Scientist │ creates a blunt end │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.the-scientist.com │ double-stranded break (DSB)... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /what-s-the-difference-betwee │ For Cas9 to function, the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ n-cas9-and-cas12a-nucleases-7 │ protospacer adjacent motif │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2481 │ (PAM)—a two to six base pair │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sequence—NGG...must sit │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ immediately downstream of the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ target on the opposite strand. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Cas9 versus Cas12a/Cpf1: │ Cas9 and Cas12a have distinct │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Structure-function │ evolutionary origins and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ comparisons and implications │ exhibit different structural │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for genome editing - PubMed │ architectures, resulting in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.g │ distinct molecular │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ov/29790280/ │ mechanisms... We discuss │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ implications for genome │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ editing, and how they may │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ influence the choice of Cas9 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ or Cas12a for specific │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ applications. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ CRISPR-Cas12a More Precise │ Cas12a...is, according to │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Than CRISPR-Cas9 │ scientists at the University │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.genengnews.com/to │ of Texas at Austin │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ pics/genome-editing/crispr-ca │ (UT-Austin), more effective │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s12a-more-precise-than-crispr │ and precise... Because Cas │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -cas9/ │ enzymes occasionally fail to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cut DNA in the right places, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ or even cut at all, they worry │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ developers, who want to modify │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ genomes with surgical │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ precision, especially in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ therapeutic applications. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Comparison of CRISPR/Cas9 and │ We found that Cas9 and Cas12a │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cas12a for gene editing in │ RNPs- co-delivered with ssODN │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Chlamydomonas reinhardtii - │ repair templates- induced │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ScienceDirect │ similar levels of total │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.sciencedirect.com │ editing, achieving as much as │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /science/article/pii/S2211926 │ 20–30 % in all │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 424004089 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Comparison of │ Comparison of │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ CRISPR-Cas9/Cas12a │ CRISPR-Cas9/Cas12a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Ribonucleoprotein Complexes │ Ribonucleoprotein Complexes │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for Genome Editing Efficiency │ for Genome Editing Efficiency │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in the Rice Phytoene │ in the Rice Phytoene │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Desaturase (OsPDS) Gene - PMC │ Desaturase (OsPDS) Gene │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC6973557/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Current and Prospective │ Current and Prospective │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Applications of CRISPR-Cas12a │ Applications of CRISPR-Cas12a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in Pluricellular Organisms - │ in Pluricellular Organisms... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ PMC │ Mol Biotechnol. 2022 Aug │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ 8;65(2):196–205. doi: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC9841005/ │ 10.1007/s12033-022-00538-5 │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ When size matters: A novel │ When size matters: A novel │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compact Cas12a variant for in │ compact Cas12a variant for in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vivo genome editing - PMC │ vivo genome editing │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC11253977/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ When size matters: A novel │ Altogether, the components of │ 0.91 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compact Cas12a variant for in │ the EbCas12a system are well │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vivo genome editing - │ below the 4.8-kb packaging │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ResearchGate │ limit of AAVs, enabling │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.researchgate.net/ │ successful packaging in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ publication/382328745_When_si │ AAV9 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ze_matters_A_novel_compact_Ca │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s12a_variant_for_in_vivo_geno │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ me_editing │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Therapeutic In Vivo Gene │ our current results prove that │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Editing Achieved by a │ the miniature Cas12f1 system │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Hypercompact CRISPR System - │ is a promising gene editing │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Advanced Science │ tool for retinal gene therapy │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://advanced.onlinelibrar │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ y.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/advs. │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 202308095 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ Delivery of CRISPR-Cas tools │ AAV is one of the most │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for in vivo genome editing │ commonly used vector systems │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ therapy: Trends and │ to date, but immunogenicity │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ challenges - ScienceDirect │ against capsid, liver toxicity │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.sciencedirect.com │ at high dose, and potential │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /science/article/pii/S0168365 │ genotoxicity caused by │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 92200027X │ off-target mutagenesis and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ genomic integration remain │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ unsolved. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 11 │ CRISPR-Based Therapeutic │ These Cas proteins are more │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Genome Editing - DSpace@MIT │ compatible with AAV delivery, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstr │ enabling additional vector │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ eam/handle/1721.1/138388.2/ni │ design options such as │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hms-1576523.pdf?sequence=4&is │ expanded promoter choices and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Allowed=y │ a streamlined delivery. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 12 │ Revolutionizing in vivo │ Genome editing using the │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ therapy with CRISPR/Cas │ CRISPR/Cas system has │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ genome editing: │ revolutionized the field of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ breakthroughs, opportunities │ genetic engineering, offering │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and challenges - Frontiers │ unprecedented opportunities │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.frontiersin.org/j │ for therapeutic applications │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ournals/genome-editing/articl │ in vivo. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ es/10.3389/fgeed.2024.1342193 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /full │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 13 │ CRISPR Clinical Trials: A │ CRISPR Clinical Trials: A 2024 │ 0.80 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2024 Update - Innovative │ Update - Innovative Genomics │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Genomics Institute │ Institute (IGI) │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://innovativegenomics.or │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ g/news/crispr-clinical-trials │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -2024/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 14 │ Alt-R CRISPR-Cas9 vs Cas12a │ The two most popular enzymes │ 0.83 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ systems | IDT │ used in CRISPR genome editing │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.idtdna.com/pages/ │ are Cas9 and Cas12a (Cpf1). │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ technology/crispr/crispr-geno │ These enzymes are highly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ me-editing/Alt-R-systems │ functional, do not require │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ binding to other enzymes as is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the case for type I CRISPR │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ systems, and can be readily │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ programmed to target the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ desired genomic DNA site. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Head-to-head in vivo │ Most comparative studies │
|
||||||
|
│ │ efficacy data in mammals │ focused on plants (rice) or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ across multiple tissue │ algae (Chlamydomonas) or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ types │ used in vitro/ex vivo │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ models. Rigorous │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ side-by-side in vivo │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mammalian comparisons of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Cas9 vs. Cas12a across │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ liver, muscle, CNS, and eye │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ were not identified in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Immunogenicity comparison │ While immunogenicity of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ between Cas9 and Cas12a in │ Cas9 is well-documented as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vivo │ a challenge for in vivo │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ delivery, direct │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ comparative immunogenicity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ data for Cas12a in humans │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ or animal models was not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available in the gathered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Cas12a clinical trial data │ The IGI clinical trials │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ update and other sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ confirm Cas9 dominance in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ trials but do not provide │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ details on approved or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ongoing Cas12a-specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ clinical trials. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Detailed off-target │ While Cas12a is reported to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ profiling comparison in │ be more specific than Cas9 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vivo │ based on kinetic studies, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ comprehensive in vivo │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ off-target profiling │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ comparing both enzymes │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ systematically across the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ same targets was not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available in the sources. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ Cas12a vs Cas9 in │ Head-to-head in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ vivo editing │ vivo mammalian │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ efficiency │ comparisons are a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ off-target │ critical gap; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mammalian │ preprint servers │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ therapeutic │ may have more │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ comparison 2023 │ recent │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2024 │ unpublished data │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ CRISPR Cas12a │ Clinical adoption │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ clinical trials │ of Cas12a in vivo │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ClinicalTrials.go │ is poorly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ v 2023 2024 │ characterized; a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ ClinicalTrials.go │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ v database search │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ would clarify │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ current status │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ Cas12a │ Immunogenicity is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ immunogenicity │ a key barrier for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pre-existing │ in vivo Cas9 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ immunity in vivo │ delivery; whether │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ gene therapy │ Cas12a poses │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ human │ fewer immune │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ challenges is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ clinically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ important but not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ covered in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ sources │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ database │ compact Cas12a │ Compact Cas12a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ EbCas12a AsCas12a │ variants show │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in vivo liver │ promise for AAV │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ lung CNS │ delivery; recent │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ therapeutic │ therapeutic in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ editing 2024 │ vivo data would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ strengthen the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ comparison │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Does Cas12a's staggered cutting │ Sources note that staggered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ pattern result in meaningfully │ cuts may enhance HDR, but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ higher HDR rates than Cas9's │ comparative in vivo HDR │
|
||||||
|
│ │ blunt cuts in vivo in │ efficiency data in mammals was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ therapeutically relevant cell │ not found in the gathered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ types? │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Are there pre-existing │ Immunogenicity is a known │
|
||||||
|
│ │ antibodies or T-cell responses │ challenge for Cas9 in vivo; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ against Cas12a proteins in │ whether Cas12a, being from │
|
||||||
|
│ │ humans that would limit its │ different bacterial origins, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ therapeutic use, as has been │ faces similar or lesser immune │
|
||||||
|
│ │ documented for SpCas9? │ barriers in human patients is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ clinically critical. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Can compact Cas12a variants │ Compact variants fit within AAV │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (e.g., EbCas12a, Cas12f) │ packaging limits better than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ consistently match or exceed │ Cas9, but their in vivo editing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ SpCas9 editing efficiency in │ efficiency relative to SpCas9 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vivo across diverse tissue │ across tissues such as liver, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ types? │ muscle, and CNS needs │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ systematic evaluation. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How does Cas12a's inherent │ Cas12a can process its own │
|
||||||
|
│ │ crRNA array processing and │ pre-crRNA array, enabling │
|
||||||
|
│ │ multiplexing capability │ multiplexed targeting from a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ translate to in vivo │ single transcript, which is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ combinatorial therapeutic │ noted as an advantage but its │
|
||||||
|
│ │ strategies compared to │ in vivo therapeutic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cas9-based multiplex │ exploitation is not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ approaches? │ well-characterized in available │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the current status of │ The 2024 CRISPR clinical trials │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cas12a-specific clinical trials │ update from IGI and Frontiers │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for in vivo gene therapy, and │ review both highlight Cas9 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ how do their safety profiles │ dominance in clinical trials, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compare to Cas9-based trials? │ but Cas12a clinical translation │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ remains poorly documented. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 14 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 54153 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 117.16s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 9e436db7-fcde-4d0f-a568-c468ae4d419c
|
||||||
378
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/09-comparative.log
Normal file
378
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/09-comparative.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,378 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Compare React and Vue for large enterprise frontends in 2026.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare React and Vue for large enterprise frontends in 2026.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:24.701232Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:26.384813Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:26.398635Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare React and Vue for large enterprise frontends in 2026.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:26.459271Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Compare React and Vue for large enterprise frontends in 2026.", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:26.459554Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:26.459652Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 9, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1149, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:37.583764Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 16, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 11893, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:45.423050Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 27147/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:52.158499Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 24, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 29, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 27147, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T01:59:52.158736Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 25, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 87997, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:16.872069Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 46, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.81, "citation_count": 12, "gap_count": 4, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 114.815, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:16.883053Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.81, "citations": 12, "gaps": 4, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 56137, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 110.40975427627563, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:16.883613Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:16.886961Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:16.944624Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0", "confidence": 0.81, "citations": 12, "tokens_used": 56137, "wall_time_sec": 110.40975427627563, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:17.535111Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ For large enterprise frontends in 2026, React and Vue each offer distinct │
|
||||||
|
│ advantages, and the best choice depends on organizational priorities. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Market Position & Adoption:** React dominates with ~42% market share among │
|
||||||
|
│ professional developers (2025 State of JavaScript survey) and ~68% among │
|
||||||
|
│ enterprise applications globally, while Vue holds ~28% developer share and │
|
||||||
|
│ ~18% enterprise share. React powers Facebook, Netflix, Airbnb, and Uber; Vue │
|
||||||
|
│ drives Alibaba, GitLab, and Nintendo. Some 80% of enterprise teams use React │
|
||||||
|
│ directly or via Next.js. [Sources 1, 4, 25] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Performance:** Both frameworks use a virtual DOM. Vue 4 showed 15% faster │
|
||||||
|
│ initial render times than React 19 in large-scale applications with │
|
||||||
|
│ thousands of components (JavaScript Performance Consortium 2025 benchmarks). │
|
||||||
|
│ However, React 19's concurrent rendering features provide superior │
|
||||||
|
│ responsiveness during complex user interactions. In micro-benchmarks, Vue │
|
||||||
|
│ 3.4 creates 1,000 rows in 38ms vs React 19's 42ms, and Vue's bundle size is │
|
||||||
|
│ smaller (33KB vs 44KB min+gzip). The performance gap continues to narrow. │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 1, 25] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **React 19 Architecture Shifts:** React 19 introduces a built-in compiler │
|
||||||
|
│ that automates memoization (making useMemo/useCallback largely redundant), │
|
||||||
|
│ native Server Components for zero-bundle-size dependencies and direct │
|
||||||
|
│ database access, a new Actions API for simplified async form handling, and │
|
||||||
|
│ the `use` hook for streamlined data fetching. These changes significantly │
|
||||||
|
│ reduce boilerplate and technical debt for enterprise teams. [Sources 18, 19, │
|
||||||
|
│ 20] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Vue's Enterprise Momentum:** Vue 3's Composition API enables better logic │
|
||||||
|
│ reuse across large codebases. Pinia (the official state manager) is │
|
||||||
|
│ TypeScript-first and lightweight. Nuxt 3 handles SSR. Vue's natural │
|
||||||
|
│ TypeScript support and Vite-powered tooling make it increasingly attractive │
|
||||||
|
│ for enterprise adoption. Fortune 500 companies, SaaS platforms, and │
|
||||||
|
│ government tech teams are growing adopters. [Sources 12, 15] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Learning Curve & Developer Experience:** Vue uses standard HTML/CSS/JS │
|
||||||
|
│ with Single File Components, making it easier to onboard developers with │
|
||||||
|
│ traditional web backgrounds. React uses JSX (combining HTML and JavaScript), │
|
||||||
|
│ which has a steeper initial curve but becomes natural quickly. Vue's │
|
||||||
|
│ official routing and state solutions (Vue Router, Pinia) reduce │
|
||||||
|
│ architectural decision-making overhead. React requires selecting from a │
|
||||||
|
│ broader ecosystem (Redux/Zustand, React Router, etc.), offering more │
|
||||||
|
│ flexibility but more upfront choices. [Sources 1, 13, 14] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Ecosystem & Hiring:** React has ~44M+ weekly npm downloads vs Vue's │
|
||||||
|
│ ~4.5M+. React has 225K+ GitHub stars vs Vue's 207K+. Fortune 500 adoption is │
|
||||||
|
│ 47% React vs 12% Vue. React job postings vastly outnumber Vue's (e.g., │
|
||||||
|
│ 3,200+ vs 680+/month in one market). React's ecosystem is larger and more │
|
||||||
|
│ mature, making hiring and long-term support easier for large enterprises. │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 14, 25] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Enterprise Scalability:** React's flexibility and massive ecosystem make │
|
||||||
|
│ it the safer long-term choice for large, complex, cross-team enterprise │
|
||||||
|
│ platforms. Angular is also a strong contender here with built-in DI, forms, │
|
||||||
|
│ and strict structure. Vue excels when time-to-market and developer │
|
||||||
|
│ productivity are top priorities and when teams want a progressive, │
|
||||||
|
│ opinionated setup with lower onboarding cost. [Sources 13, 14, 23] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Recommendation:** For most large enterprise frontends in 2026, React │
|
||||||
|
│ (often via Next.js) remains the dominant and lowest-risk choice due to its │
|
||||||
|
│ ecosystem size, hiring market, enterprise adoption, and React 19's │
|
||||||
|
│ architectural improvements. Vue is a compelling choice for enterprises │
|
||||||
|
│ prioritizing developer velocity, lower onboarding costs, and smaller bundle │
|
||||||
|
│ sizes, particularly in Asia-Pacific markets or mid-size SaaS platforms. │
|
||||||
|
│ Neither choice is technically wrong—both are production-proven at scale. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ React vs Vue: Frontend │ According to the 2025 State of │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Frameworks Compared in 2025 │ JavaScript survey, React │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://automation-ops.com/bl │ continues to dominate with a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ og/react-vs-vue-frontend-fram │ 42% market share among │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ eworks-compared │ professional developers, while │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Vue has grown to capture 28% │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of the market. Vue 4 showed a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 15% faster initial render time │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ compared to React 19 in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ large-scale applications with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ thousands of components. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Angular vs. React vs. Vue.js: │ The focus in 2025 has shifted │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ A performance guide for 2026 │ away from basic component │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ - LogRocket Blog │ logic toward reactivity │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://blog.logrocket.com/an │ models, hydration strategies, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ gular-vs-react-vs-vue-js-perf │ and compiler-driven │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ormance/ │ performance optimizations. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ React vs Next.js vs Vue: │ React remains the foundation │ 0.80 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Which Frontend Framework Wins │ for modern frontend │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in 2026? - DEV Community │ development with 80% of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://dev.to/ciphernutz/rea │ enterprise teams still using │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ct-vs-nextjs-vs-vue-which-fro │ it directly or via Next.js. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ntend-framework-wins-in-2025- │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 26gj │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ The 2025 Tech Stack Dilemma: │ According to the 2025 State of │ 0.78 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ React vs Vue vs Angular for │ JavaScript survey, developers │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Enterprise Applications │ using frameworks report 35-50% │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.codertrove.com/ar │ faster development cycles │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ticles/2025-tech-stack-dilemm │ compared to vanilla │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ a-react-vs-vue-vs-angular-for │ JavaScript. The 2024 State of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -enterprise-application │ JavaScript survey reveals that │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 78% of developers cite 'faster │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ development' as their primary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reason for adoption. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Web Development with React vs │ React maintains its dominant │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Vue.js: 2025 Comparison | │ position with approximately │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ iTechDev Blog │ 68% market share among │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.itechdev.com.mx/b │ enterprise applications │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ log/react-vs-vue-comparison-2 │ globally. Vue 3.4 creates │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 025 │ 1,000 rows in 38ms vs React │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 19's 42ms. Bundle size │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (min+gzip): React 44KB, Vue │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 33KB. Fortune 500 adoption: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ React 47%, Vue 12%. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ React 19 Features & Updates │ React 19 emerges as a landmark │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (2025): What's New & Why It │ release that brings │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Matters - WEQ │ significant enhancements to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://weqtechnologies.com/r │ performance, developer │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ eact-19-features-updates-2025 │ experience, and scalability. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -whats-new-why-it-matters/ │ This update builds on the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ foundations laid by React 18, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ introducing powerful new │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ features like the React │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Compiler, Actions API, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ enhanced support for React │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Server Components. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ React 19: Architecture │ The React Compiler │ 0.83 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Shifts, Performance │ automatically handles │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Optimization, and the Future │ memoization, rendering hooks │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ of Enterprise Web Development │ like useMemo and useCallback │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pblinuxtech.com/react │ largely redundant for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -19-architecture-shifts-perfo │ performance optimization. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ rmance-optimization-and-the-f │ Native support for Server │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ uture-of-enterprise-web-devel │ Components allows for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ opment/ │ zero-bundle-size dependencies │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and direct database access, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ optimizing the use of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Linux-based edge runtimes. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Vue.js in the Enterprise: Why │ By 2026, more │ 0.79 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ More Companies Are Choosing │ organizations—startups, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Vue in 2026 – Manifest │ Fortune 500 companies, large │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://manifestinfotech.com/ │ SaaS platforms, and government │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vue-js-in-the-enterprise-why- │ tech teams—are adopting Vue │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ more-companies-are-choosing-v │ for mission-critical │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ue-in-2026/ │ applications. Pinia, now the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ official store for Vue, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ delivers TypeScript-first │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ architecture, lightweight │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ design, better devtools │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ integration, faster global │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ state handling. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ The State of Vue.js Report │ This report, created in │ 0.84 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2025 │ collaboration with Evan You │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://stateofvue.framer.web │ and the Vue and Nuxt Core │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ site/ │ Teams, offers unique insights │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ across 150 virtual pages. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ We've included 16 real-world │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ case studies from leading │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ brands, including GitLab, Hack │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ The Box, Storyblok, Booksy, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and DocPlanner. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ React vs Angular vs Vue: │ React, maintained by Meta, is │ 0.84 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Choosing the Best for │ a declarative, component-based │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Enterprise in 2025 │ library for building user │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://softwarelogic.co/en/b │ interfaces. Its virtual DOM │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ log/which-javascript-framewor │ and one-way data flow provide │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ k-is-best-for-enterprise-reac │ outstanding performance and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ t-angular-or-vue │ flexibility. Vue is loved for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ its gentle learning curve and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ progressive adoption. Angular │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is designed for large, complex │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ enterprise applications where │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ structure and scalability are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ paramount. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 11 │ React vs Vue: which one │ React is built for scale. Its │ 0.86 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ should you choose in 2025? | │ flexibility, huge ecosystem, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ DECODE │ and massive job market make it │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://decode.agency/article │ the safest choice for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /react-vs-vue/ │ enterprise-grade apps. Vue is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ built for speed. With a gentle │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ learning curve and official │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tools baked in, teams can move │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ faster and deliver MVPs or │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mid-size apps quickly. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 12 │ What is React.js in 2025 and │ In React 19, that same Reactjs │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ why React 19 changed │ library comes with first-class │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ front-end again | Merge │ async workflows, server │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://merge.rocks/blog/what │ components, and metadata │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -is-react-js-in-2025-and-why- │ management, so teams spend │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ react-19-changed-front-end-ag │ less time gluing libraries │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ain │ together and more time on │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ product work. The React team │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ also ships React Compiler, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ currently in beta, which │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ automatically optimizes many │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ components that used to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ require manual memoization. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Real-world 2026 │ No sources provided │
|
||||||
|
│ │ enterprise migration │ firsthand accounts of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ case studies from React │ enterprises switching │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to Vue or vice versa │ frameworks in 2026 with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ documented outcomes, only │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ general advocacy pieces. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Angular vs React vs Vue │ The question focused on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ head-to-head in 2026 │ React vs Vue, but Angular │
|
||||||
|
│ │ enterprise contexts │ is a significant │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ competitor in large │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ enterprise contexts. Full │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ three-way comparison with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2026 data was not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Vue 4 specific features │ One source │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and release status │ (automation-ops.com) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mentions 'Vue 4' with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 'enhanced composition API │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ features', but most other │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources discuss Vue 3.x │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ as the current version. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Vue 4 release status is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ unclear. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Verified 2026 salary and │ Salary data found was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hiring market data │ market-specific (Mexico) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and from 2025; global │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2026 enterprise hiring │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cost comparison between │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ React and Vue developers │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ was not available. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ Vue 4 release │ One source │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ date features │ references Vue 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ official │ with enhanced │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ announcement 2025 │ composition API, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2026 │ but most sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ still discuss Vue │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ 3.x; clarifying │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ whether Vue 4 has │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ been released is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ important for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ accurate │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ comparison. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ React Server │ SSR tooling │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Components vs │ (Next.js vs Nuxt) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Nuxt SSR │ is a key │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ enterprise │ enterprise │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ performance │ decision factor │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ comparison 2025 │ mentioned across │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2026 │ sources but not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ deeply │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ benchmarked │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ head-to-head. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ State of │ Multiple sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ JavaScript 2025 │ cite the 2025 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ full survey │ State of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ results React Vue │ JavaScript survey │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Angular market │ but only with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ share │ partial data; the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ full report would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ provide │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ authoritative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ market share │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ figures. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradiction │ null │ Vue 4 vs Vue 3 │ Automation-ops │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ current version │ references 'Vue │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ enterprise 2025 │ 4' with benchmark │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2026 │ data but other │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ consistently │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ reference Vue 3.4 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ as current. This │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ is a factual │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ discrepancy that │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ could affect │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ benchmark │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ interpretation. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Has Vue 4 officially been │ One source claims Vue 4 shows │
|
||||||
|
│ │ released, and what are its │ 15% faster initial render times │
|
||||||
|
│ │ actual performance │ than React 19, but most sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ characteristics vs React 19 in │ still discuss Vue 3.4 as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ enterprise applications? │ current. This discrepancy │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ affects benchmark reliability. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How does React's new React │ React Compiler automates │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Compiler (in beta) affect the │ memoization and is described as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ performance gap between React │ a game-changer, but its │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and Vue in production │ real-world impact on large │
|
||||||
|
│ │ enterprise applications? │ enterprise codebases has not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ yet been fully benchmarked │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ against Vue's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ compiler-optimized reactivity. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ For enterprises currently on │ The State of Vue.js Report 2025 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Vue 2 or Vue 3, what is the │ includes a chapter on Vue 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ actual cost and risk profile of │ Migration, suggesting migration │
|
||||||
|
│ │ upgrading to future Vue │ is still a concern for many │
|
||||||
|
│ │ versions vs migrating to React? │ enterprise teams. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How does the developer hiring │ Sources note strong Vue │
|
||||||
|
│ │ market for Vue vs React differ │ adoption in Asia-Pacific and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ across regions (Asia-Pacific vs │ Latin America but React │
|
||||||
|
│ │ North America vs Europe) for │ dominance globally. Regional │
|
||||||
|
│ │ enterprise teams planning 2026 │ hiring market differences could │
|
||||||
|
│ │ staffing? │ significantly impact enterprise │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ framework choices. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ What is the total cost of │ Sources discuss development │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ownership difference between │ cost at project level but do │
|
||||||
|
│ │ React+Next.js and Vue+Nuxt for │ not model long-term TCO │
|
||||||
|
│ │ a 50+ person enterprise │ including training, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ frontend team over a 3-year │ maintenance, tooling, and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ horizon? │ hiring costs for large teams. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.81 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 12 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: medium │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: True │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 56137 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 110.41s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 7c8dd19b-174b-4850-a2f5-28917d37c0c0
|
||||||
310
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/10-comparative.log
Normal file
310
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/10-comparative.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,310 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Compare wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United
|
||||||
|
States.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United States.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:18.663955Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:19.783461Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:19.795497Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Compare wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United States.", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:19.838791Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Compare wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United States.", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:19.839685Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:19.839976Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1104, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:29.064991Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 12, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 8211, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:38.391464Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 19, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 23963/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:45.620609Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 20, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 22, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 23963, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:01:45.620851Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 21, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 72249, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:55.647112Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 40, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.88, "citation_count": 10, "gap_count": 4, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 99.134, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:55.648194Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.88, "citations": 10, "gaps": 4, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 48230, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 95.80813455581665, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:55.648284Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:55.648701Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:55.654584Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540", "confidence": 0.88, "citations": 10, "tokens_used": 48230, "wall_time_sec": 95.80813455581665, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:55.883067Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United States differ │
|
||||||
|
│ notably, with wind generally outperforming utility-scale solar on an annual │
|
||||||
|
│ average basis, though both vary significantly by location and season. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Wind Capacity Factors:** In 2023, the U.S. wind turbine fleet had an │
|
||||||
|
│ average capacity factor of 33.5%, which was an eight-year low driven by │
|
||||||
|
│ weaker-than-normal wind speeds (down from the 2022 all-time high of 35.9%). │
|
||||||
|
│ Wind capacity factors are highest in spring (March–April) and lowest in │
|
||||||
|
│ summer. In April 2024, wind generation hit a record 47.7 TWh, exceeding coal │
|
||||||
|
│ generation for the second consecutive month. The NREL wind resource │
|
||||||
|
│ assessment identifies areas with capacity factors ≥30% (generally mean │
|
||||||
|
│ annual wind speeds ≥6.4 m/s) as suitable for development, with the │
|
||||||
|
│ highest-potential zones in the central Great Plains. The U.S. total │
|
||||||
|
│ installed wind capacity reached ~150,500 MW by end of 2023. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Solar (Utility-Scale PV) Capacity Factors:** The weighted average U.S. │
|
||||||
|
│ utility-scale solar capacity factor was 23.5% in 2023, down 0.7 percentage │
|
||||||
|
│ points from 24.2% in 2022. NREL's Annual Technology Baseline categorizes │
|
||||||
|
│ utility-scale PV capacity factors into 10 resource classes based on mean │
|
||||||
|
│ global horizontal irradiance (GHI); the desert Southwest achieves the │
|
||||||
|
│ highest factors, while northern states achieve at least ~70% of the │
|
||||||
|
│ Southwest's value. Solar generation is highest in summer and lowest in │
|
||||||
|
│ winter, opposite to wind seasonality. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Comparison Summary:** On an annual fleet-wide average, wind capacity │
|
||||||
|
│ factors (~33–36%) are materially higher than utility-scale solar capacity │
|
||||||
|
│ factors (~23–24%). However, the two resources are complementary seasonally: │
|
||||||
|
│ wind peaks in spring, solar peaks in summer. Both are intermittent │
|
||||||
|
│ resources. In 2025, wind and solar together generated a record 17% of U.S. │
|
||||||
|
│ electricity (wind: 464,000 GWh; utility-scale solar: 296,000 GWh), │
|
||||||
|
│ reflecting wind's larger current installed base despite solar's faster │
|
||||||
|
│ recent capacity growth. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Wind generation declined in │ Last year, the average │ 0.98 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2023 for the first time since │ utilization rate, or capacity │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ the 1990s - EIA │ factor, of the wind turbine │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ fleet fell to an eight-year │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=61943 │ low of 33.5% (compared with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 35.9% in 2022, the all-time │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ high). │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ US solar capacity factors │ The weighted average US solar │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ retreat in 2023, break │ capacity factor came in at a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ multiyear streak above 24% │ calculated 23.5% annually in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.spglobal.com/mark │ 2023, down 0.7 percentage │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ et-intelligence/en/news-insig │ point from 24.2% in 2022. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hts/research/us-solar-capacit │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ y-factors-retreat-in-2023-bre │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ak-multiyear-streak-above-24p │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ erc │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ U.S. wind generation hit │ Wind generation, meanwhile, │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ record in April 2024, │ increased to a record 47.7 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ exceeding coal-fired │ TWh. However, during the first │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ generation - EIA │ four months of 2024, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ coal-fired generation was 15% │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=62784 │ higher than wind generation in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the United States. Installed │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ wind power generating capacity │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ has increased substantially in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the United States over the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ last 25 years, growing from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2000 to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 150.1 GW in April 2024. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Land-Based Wind Market Report │ The U.S. wind industry │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2024: Edition | Department of │ installed 6,474 megawatts (MW) │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Energy │ of new land-based wind │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.energy.gov/cmei/s │ capacity in 2023, bringing the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ystems/land-based-wind-market │ cumulative total to nearly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -report-2024-edition │ 150,500 MW. Also, $10.8 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ billion was invested in 2023 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in land-based wind energy │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ expansion. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Utility-Scale PV | │ The 2024 ATB provides the │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Electricity | 2024 | ATB | │ average capacity factor for 10 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ NREL │ resource categories in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://atb.nrel.gov/electric │ United States, binned by mean │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ity/2024/utility-scale_pv │ GHI. Average capacity factors │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ are calculated using │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ county-level capacity factor │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ averages from the Renewable │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Energy Potential (reV) model │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ for 1998–2021. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ NREL projects solar │ In the latest update, zones │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ generation and costs for 10 │ 2-8, representing all but the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ U.S. zones – pv magazine USA │ northernmost states in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2 │ continental U.S., solar │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 021/07/22/nrel-projects-solar │ installations have a capacity │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -generation-and-costs-for-10- │ factor that is at least 70% of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ u-s-zones/ │ that in the desert Southwest's │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ zone 1, the data show. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Wind and solar generated a │ In 2025, wind power generated │ 0.96 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ record 17% of U.S. │ 464,000 GWh of electricity, 3% │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ electricity in 2025 - EIA │ more than in 2024. In 2025, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ utility-scale solar power │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=67367 │ generation totaled 296,000 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ GWh, 34% more than in 2024. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ 80 and 100 Meter Wind Energy │ Windy land defined as areas │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Resource Potential for the │ with >= 30% CF*, generally │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ United States - NREL │ mean annual wind speeds >= 6.4 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy │ m/s... U.S. wind potential │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 10osti/48036.pdf │ from areas with CF*>=30% is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ enormous, with almost 10,500 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ GW capacity at 80 m and 12,000 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ GW capacity at 100 m. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Wind power in the United │ In 2025, 464.4 terawatt-hours │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ States - Wikipedia │ were generated by wind power, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki │ or 10.48% of electricity in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /Wind_power_in_the_United_Sta │ the United States. In March │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tes │ and April of 2024, electricity │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ generation from wind exceeded │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ generation from coal, once the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dominant source of U.S. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ electricity, for an extended │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ period for the first time. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ Utility-scale U.S. solar │ In August 2024, a total of │ 0.94 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ electricity generation │ 107.4 gigawatts (GW) of solar │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ continues to grow in 2024 - │ electricity generating │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ EIA │ capacity was operating in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ Lower 48 states compared with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=63324 │ 81.9 GW in August 2023... In │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the final five months of 2024, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ we expect new U.S. solar │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ electricity generating │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ capacity will make up 63%, or │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ nearly two-thirds, of all new │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ electricity generating │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ capacity to come online. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Offshore wind capacity │ The evidence gathered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ factors │ focuses on land-based wind. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Offshore wind typically has │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ higher capacity factors │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (40–50%+) than land-based │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ wind but was not the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ primary focus of the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources retrieved. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Most recent 2024 annual │ The 2023 annual wind │
|
||||||
|
│ │ average wind capacity │ capacity factor (33.5%) is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ factor │ confirmed, but a final 2024 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ annual figure was not found │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in the sources; only │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ monthly records for April │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2024 were available. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Regional breakdown of wind │ State- or region-level │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vs. solar capacity factors │ direct comparisons of wind │
|
||||||
|
│ │ within the continental U.S. │ vs. solar capacity factors │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ within the continental U.S. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ were not available in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ retrieved sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Small-scale/rooftop solar │ The 23.5% solar capacity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ capacity factors │ factor applies to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ utility-scale solar. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Distributed/rooftop solar │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ typically has lower │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ capacity factors due to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ suboptimal orientation; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ this was not quantified in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the retrieved evidence. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ U.S. offshore │ Offshore wind has │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ wind capacity │ substantially │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ factors 2023 2024 │ higher capacity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ compared to │ factors than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ land-based wind │ land-based wind │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and solar │ and solar, which │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ would complete │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ the renewable │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ capacity factor │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ comparison │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ picture. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ NREL ATB 2024 │ NREL ATB provides │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ utility-scale │ wind capacity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ wind capacity │ factors by │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ factor by │ resource class │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ resource class │ similar to solar, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ continental US │ enabling direct │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ apples-to-apples │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ regional │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ comparison with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ solar CF data. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ seasonal wind vs │ Wind peaks in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ solar capacity │ spring, solar in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ factor │ summer—understand │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ complementarity │ ing this │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ United States │ complementarity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ grid balancing │ is critical for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ grid planning and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ storage │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ requirements. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ database │ EIA Electric │ The 2024 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Power Monthly │ full-year wind │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2024 annual wind │ capacity factor │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ capacity factor │ would allow │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ final │ updated │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ comparison with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ the 2023 solar │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ capacity factor │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ of 23.5%. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How do wind and solar capacity │ Texas led wind capacity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ factors compare on a regional │ additions in 2023 (1,323 MW) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ basis within the continental │ and is the second-largest │
|
||||||
|
│ │ U.S., particularly in states │ utility-scale solar state (18.8 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ like Texas and California that │ GW). California leads solar. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ have significant installations │ Regional comparisons would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ of both? │ clarify where each resource is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ most competitive. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ What is the projected │ NREL's ATB provides │
|
||||||
|
│ │ trajectory of utility-scale │ Advanced/Moderate/Conservative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ solar capacity factors as │ scenarios for solar CF │
|
||||||
|
│ │ technology improves, and will │ improvements through 2050, and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ solar eventually close the gap │ solar capacity additions are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ with wind on a fleet-wide │ now outpacing wind. The │
|
||||||
|
│ │ average basis? │ convergence timeline is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ unclear. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How did the 2023 wind │ Wind generation fell 2.1% in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ generation decline (due to low │ 2023 to an eight-year-low │
|
||||||
|
│ │ wind speeds) affect investment │ capacity factor of 33.5%, while │
|
||||||
|
│ │ decisions for new wind vs. │ solar continued growing. This │
|
||||||
|
│ │ solar projects? │ may have influenced utility │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ procurement decisions. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the capacity factor of │ The DOE Wind Market Reports │
|
||||||
|
│ │ offshore wind installations in │ cover offshore wind separately, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ the U.S., and how does it │ and offshore wind typically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compare to both land-based wind │ achieves materially higher │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and utility-scale solar? │ capacity factors than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ land-based wind (~40–50%), but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ this was not quantified in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ retrieved sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ How does the Inflation │ The IRA led to significant │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Reduction Act's impact on wind │ near-term wind deployment │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and solar deployment affect │ forecast increases and billions │
|
||||||
|
│ │ future capacity factor trends, │ in domestic supply chain │
|
||||||
|
│ │ given that larger, more │ investment. Average wind │
|
||||||
|
│ │ efficient turbines and │ turbine capacity grew to 3.4 MW │
|
||||||
|
│ │ better-sited projects may │ in 2023, up 375% since │
|
||||||
|
│ │ improve wind CFs? │ 1998–1999. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 10 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 48230 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 95.81s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540
|
||||||
236
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/11-contradiction.log
Normal file
236
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/11-contradiction.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,236 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Is red wine good for cardiovascular health?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Is red wine good for cardiovascular health?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:56.517038Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:57.298051Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:57.308234Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Is red wine good for cardiovascular health?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:57.343434Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Is red wine good for cardiovascular health?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:57.343753Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:02:57.343847Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1097, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:03:09.450890Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 14, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 8466, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:03:15.393838Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 19, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 22139/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:03:24.405453Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 20, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 19, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 22139, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:03:24.405621Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 21, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 50486, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:13.808158Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 37, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.72, "citation_count": 9, "gap_count": 3, "discovery_count": 3, "total_duration_sec": 78.676, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:13.808851Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.72, "citations": 9, "gaps": 3, "discovery_events": 3, "tokens_used": 42350, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 76.46466898918152, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:13.808934Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:13.809517Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:13.813434Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d", "confidence": 0.72, "citations": 9, "tokens_used": 42350, "wall_time_sec": 76.46466898918152, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:14.104351Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ The relationship between red wine and cardiovascular health is nuanced and │
|
||||||
|
│ contested. Historically, observational studies found that moderate drinkers │
|
||||||
|
│ (at least one drink per day) were 30–40% less likely to die from │
|
||||||
|
│ cardiovascular disease compared to non-drinkers, a pattern sometimes called │
|
||||||
|
│ the 'J-shaped mortality curve' [NYT/AHA]. Red wine specifically contains │
|
||||||
|
│ polyphenols (including flavonoids and resveratrol) that may inhibit LDL │
|
||||||
|
│ oxidation, prevent endothelial dysfunction, raise HDL cholesterol, and │
|
||||||
|
│ decrease fibrinogen concentrations [Circulation Research; PMC6804046]. │
|
||||||
|
│ However, no study has established a direct cause-and-effect link between red │
|
||||||
|
│ wine consumption and improved heart health [AHA]. More recent analyses │
|
||||||
|
│ suggest the apparent benefit may reflect confounding factors—moderate │
|
||||||
|
│ drinkers may have healthier lifestyles overall—and methodological flaws such │
|
||||||
|
│ as including former drinkers (who quit due to illness) in the abstainer │
|
||||||
|
│ group [NYT; Three Spirit]. The 'French Paradox,' which popularized the red │
|
||||||
|
│ wine-heart health hypothesis, is now being critically re-examined as a │
|
||||||
|
│ public health myth [ResearchGate]. Major health organizations, including the │
|
||||||
|
│ American Heart Association, do not recommend starting to drink red wine for │
|
||||||
|
│ heart benefit, and current evidence does not support a causal protective │
|
||||||
|
│ effect of alcohol on the heart. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ How Red Wine Lost Its Health │ Researchers found that those │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Halo - The New York Times │ who reported having at least │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/ │ one alcoholic drink per day │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 02/17/well/eat/red-wine-heart │ were 30 to 40 percent less │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -health.html │ likely to die from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular disease. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Drinking red wine for heart │ No research has established a │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ health? Read this before you │ cause-and-effect link between │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ toast | American Heart │ drinking alcohol and better │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Association │ heart health. Rather, studies │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.heart.org/en/news │ have found an association │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /2019/05/24/drinking-red-wine │ between wine and such benefits │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -for-heart-health-read-this-b │ as a lower risk of dying from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ efore-you-toast │ heart disease. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Red Wine and Cardiovascular │ The alcoholic component is │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Health | Circulation Research │ known to increase high-density │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.ahajournals.org/d │ lipoprotein cholesterol and to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oi/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.112.278 │ decrease fibrinogen │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 705?doi=10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.11 │ concentrations. The │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2.278705 │ polyphenols present in red │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ wine │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Wine and Cardiovascular │ Flavonoids from red wine have │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Health | Circulation │ been credited to inhibit │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.ahajournals.org/d │ low-density lipoprotein (LDL) │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oi/10.1161/circulationaha.117 │ oxidation and prevent │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ .030387 │ endothelial dysfunction, which │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Red Wine Consumption and │ Red Wine Consumption and │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cardiovascular Health - PMC │ Cardiovascular Health Luigi │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ Castaldo ... Department of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC6804046/ │ Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ University of Naples "Federico │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ II" ... Molecules. 2019 Oct │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 8;24(19):3626. doi: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 10.3390/molecules24193626 │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Association between Wine │ Association between Wine │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Consumption with │ Consumption with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cardiovascular Disease and │ Cardiovascular Disease and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cardiovascular Mortality: A │ Cardiovascular Mortality: A │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Systematic Review and │ Systematic Review and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Meta-Analysis - PMC │ Meta-Analysis ... Nutrients. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ 2023 Jun 17;15(12):2785. doi: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC10303697/ │ 10.3390/nu15122785 │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Red wine and resveratrol: │ Is red wine heart healthy? │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Good for your heart? - Mayo │ Antioxidants in red wine │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Clinic │ called polyphenols may help │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.mayoclinic.org/di │ protect the lining of blood │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ seases-conditions/heart-disea │ vessels in the heart. · │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ se/in-depth/red-wine/art-2004 │ Resveratrol in red wine. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 8281 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Debunking the 'wine is │ In the early nineties, a TV │ 0.65 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ healthy' myth – Three Spirit │ show in the US reported lower │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ US │ heart attack rates in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://us.threespiritdrinks. │ France... The report framed │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ com/blogs/blog/where-the-wine │ the country's regular │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -is-healthy-myth-came-from │ consumption of alcohol, in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ particular red wine, as the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reason behind this, claiming │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ that it reduced that risk of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ heart disease. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Revisiting the French │ The "French Paradox," the │ 0.78 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Paradox: Deconstructing a │ hypothesis that moderate red │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Public Health Myth and its │ wine consumption explains │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Global Commercial Legacy │ France's historically low │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.researchgate.net/ │ coronary heart disease rates │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ publication/399257280_Title_R │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ evisiting_the_French_Paradox_ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Deconstructing_a_Public_Healt │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ h_Myth_and_its_Global_Commerc │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ial_Legacy │ │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Randomized controlled │ Most evidence is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ trial evidence on red │ observational. Robust RCT │
|
||||||
|
│ │ wine and cardiovascular │ data directly testing red │
|
||||||
|
│ │ outcomes │ wine's causal │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular effect in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ humans is lacking and not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ surfaced in available │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Differential effect of │ Some sources attribute │
|
||||||
|
│ │ red wine vs. other │ benefits to polyphenols │
|
||||||
|
│ │ alcohol types on │ specific to red wine, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cardiovascular health │ while others suggest the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ effect is due to alcohol │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in general, making it │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ unclear whether red wine │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is uniquely beneficial. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ access_denied │ Full text of 2023 │ The PMC10303697 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ meta-analysis findings │ meta-analysis page header │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ was retrieved but full │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ results/conclusions were │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ not available in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ scraped content. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ contradiction │ database │ randomized │ Observational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ controlled trial │ studies suggest │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ red wine │ benefit, but no │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ polyphenols │ causal link │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ established; RCT │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ outcomes │ evidence needed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ to resolve │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ contradiction. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ resveratrol │ Resveratrol is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ bioavailability │ cited as a key │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ mechanism but its │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ human clinical │ bioavailability │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ trials 2022 2023 │ from wine in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2024 │ clinically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ meaningful doses │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ is debated. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ sick quitter bias │ The J-shaped │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ abstainer │ curve may be an │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ misclassification │ artifact of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ alcohol │ methodological │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ flaws (sick │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ epidemiology │ quitters included │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ in abstainer │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ group), which │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ undermines │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ earlier │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ protective │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ findings. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Does the apparent │ Observational J-curve studies │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cardiovascular benefit of │ may misclassify former drinkers │
|
||||||
|
│ │ moderate red wine consumption │ who quit due to illness as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ disappear when sick quitters │ non-drinkers, inflating the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ are properly excluded from the │ apparent benefit of moderate │
|
||||||
|
│ │ abstainer comparison group? │ drinking. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Is the cardiovascular effect of │ Circulation Research notes both │
|
||||||
|
│ │ red wine attributable to │ the alcohol component and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ polyphenols (resveratrol, │ polyphenols independently │
|
||||||
|
│ │ flavonoids) or simply to the │ affect cardiovascular markers, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ alcohol content? │ but their relative contribution │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is unclear. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What do the most recent │ The 2023 PMC meta-analysis was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ meta-analyses (2022–2024) │ identified but its full │
|
||||||
|
│ │ conclude about wine consumption │ conclusions were not accessible │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and cardiovascular mortality │ in the retrieved content. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ after correcting for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ confounders? │ │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Are there subpopulations (e.g., │ Current guidance is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ by age, sex, genetic profile) │ population-level; individual │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for whom moderate red wine │ variation in alcohol metabolism │
|
||||||
|
│ │ consumption might confer │ and cardiovascular risk │
|
||||||
|
│ │ measurable cardiovascular │ profiles may produce different │
|
||||||
|
│ │ benefit? │ outcomes. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.72 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 7 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: True │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: recent │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 42350 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 76.46s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d
|
||||||
330
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/12-contradiction.log
Normal file
330
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/12-contradiction.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,330 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Does intermittent fasting extend lifespan in humans?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Does intermittent fasting extend lifespan in humans?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:14.725578Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:15.543876Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:15.553451Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Does intermittent fasting extend lifespan in humans?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:15.587475Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Does intermittent fasting extend lifespan in humans?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:15.587815Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:15.587912Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1148, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:22.802797Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 14, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 8443, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:26.505496Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 21, "decision": "Starting iteration 4/5", "tokens_so_far": 18167, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:43.089460Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 26, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 5: 36705/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:47.193645Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 27, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 26, "iterations_run": 4, "tokens_used": 36705, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:04:47.193894Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 28, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 76890, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:00.759366Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 48, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.72, "citation_count": 11, "gap_count": 4, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 109.604, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:00.760365Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.72, "citations": 11, "gaps": 4, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 62781, "iterations_run": 4, "wall_time_sec": 105.17169857025146, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:00.760468Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:00.760848Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:00.765020Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3", "confidence": 0.72, "citations": 11, "tokens_used": 62781, "wall_time_sec": 105.17169857025146, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:00.989582Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Current scientific evidence does NOT conclusively demonstrate that │
|
||||||
|
│ intermittent fasting (IF) extends lifespan in humans. While IF has proven │
|
||||||
|
│ lifespan-extending effects in animal models (particularly rodents), and │
|
||||||
|
│ improves multiple healthspan markers in humans—including weight, insulin │
|
||||||
|
│ resistance, inflammation, dyslipidemia, hypertension, oxidative stress, and │
|
||||||
|
│ autophagy—direct evidence of increased human lifespan from IF is lacking. │
|
||||||
|
│ Mechanistically, IF triggers 'adaptive stress' in cells, activating │
|
||||||
|
│ antioxidant production, DNA repair, autophagy (via spermidine-mediated │
|
||||||
|
│ pathways), and reduced inflammation, all of which are theoretically linked │
|
||||||
|
│ to longevity [InsideTracker, FORTH/Nature Cell Biology]. A 2024 review in │
|
||||||
|
│ Ageing Research Reviews concluded IF 'can be considered a │
|
||||||
|
│ non-pharmacological strategy to extend lifespan' and has been 'proven to │
|
||||||
|
│ extend lifespan in rodent models,' but human translation remains unconfirmed │
|
||||||
|
│ [ScienceDirect/PubMed]. A scoping review of RCTs found IF improves │
|
||||||
|
│ aging-related biomarkers in adults but stopped short of claiming lifespan │
|
||||||
|
│ extension [PMC]. A 2024 Nature study on genetically diverse mice showed │
|
||||||
|
│ dietary restriction (including IF) extends healthy lifespan in mice but its │
|
||||||
|
│ human relevance is unclear. Critically, a major 2024 AHA-presented │
|
||||||
|
│ observational study of 20,000+ U.S. adults found that eating within an │
|
||||||
|
│ 8-hour window was associated with a 91% higher risk of cardiovascular death │
|
||||||
|
│ compared to eating across 12–16 hours—though this study has been heavily │
|
||||||
|
│ criticized for methodological limitations including confounding variables │
|
||||||
|
│ (demographics, pre-existing disease) and reliance on only two days of │
|
||||||
|
│ dietary recall data [AHA, WebMD, Forbes]. In summary, IF improves several │
|
||||||
|
│ biomarkers associated with healthy aging in humans, and extends lifespan in │
|
||||||
|
│ animals, but no long-term human RCT has demonstrated actual lifespan │
|
||||||
|
│ extension, and some observational data raise cardiovascular safety concerns. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Intermittent fasting and │ IF can be considered as a │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ longevity: From animal models │ non-pharmacological strategy │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to implication for humans - │ to extend lifespan. IF │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ScienceDirect │ improves physiological │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.sciencedirect.com │ function, enhances │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /science/article/abs/pii/S156 │ performance, and slows aging. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 8163724000928 │ IF was proven to extend │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ lifespan in rodent models. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Intermittent fasting and │ Findings to date from both │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ longevity: From animal models │ human and animal experiments │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to implication for humans - │ indicate that fasting improves │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ PubMed │ physiological function, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.g │ enhances performance, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ov/38499159/ │ slows aging and disease │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ processes. Metabolic and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cellular responses triggered │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ by IF could help to achieve │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the aim of preventing disease, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and maximizing healthspan and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ longevity with minimal side │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ effects. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ How Intermittent Fasting │ In humans, intermittent │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Impacts Longevity: A Summary │ fasting improves weight, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ of the Research - │ insulin resistance, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ InsideTracker │ inflammation, dyslipidemia, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.insidetracker.com │ and hypertension. IF has also │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /a/articles/how-intermittent- │ reduced tumor growth, boosted │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ fasting-impacts-longevity │ stem cell production, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ increased lifespan in mice. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ During fasting, cells undergo │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ adaptive stress, which │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ activates different pathways │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in the body, resulting in a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ range of effects, including │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ increased production of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ antioxidants, DNA repair, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ autophagy. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Effects of Intermittent │ In humans, │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Fasting on Health, Aging, and │ intermittent-fasting │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Disease - NEJM │ interventions ameliorate │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.nejm.org/doi/full │ obesity, insulin resistance, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /10.1056/NEJMra1905136 │ dyslipidemia, hypertension, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and inflammation. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Impact of Intermittent │ Impact of Intermittent Fasting │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Fasting and/or Caloric │ and/or Caloric Restriction on │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Restriction on Aging-Related │ Aging-Related Outcomes in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Outcomes in Adults: A Scoping │ Adults: A Scoping Review of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Review of Randomized │ Randomized Controlled Trials. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Controlled Trials - PMC │ Nutrients. 2024 Jan │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ 20;16(2):316. doi: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC10820472/ │ 10.3390/nu16020316 │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ International scientific │ intermittent fasting increases │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ collaboration reveals how │ the levels of spermidine, a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ intermittent fasting │ chemical compound (natural │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ regulates ageing through │ polyamine), that enhances the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ autophagy | FORTH │ resilience and survival of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://forth.gr/en/news/show │ cells and organisms, through │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /&tid=2606 │ the activation of autophagy. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Autophagy defects have been │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ linked to ageing, as well as, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ with the emergence of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ age-related disorders. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Dietary restriction impacts │ Caloric restriction extends │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ health and lifespan of │ healthy lifespan in multiple │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ genetically diverse mice | │ species. Intermittent fasting, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Nature │ an alternative form of dietary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.nature.com/articl │ restriction, is potentially │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ es/s41586-024-08026-3 │ more sustainable in humans, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ but its effectiveness remains │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ largely unexplored. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Identifying the most │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ efficacious forms of dietary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ restriction is key for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ developing interventions to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ improve human health and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ longevity. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Time-restricted eating may │ A popular weight loss strategy │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ raise cardiovascular death │ that limits the hours during │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ risk in the long term | │ which calories can be consumed │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ American Heart Association │ may nearly double a person's │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.heart.org/en/news │ long-term risk of dying from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /2024/03/18/time-restricted-e │ cardiovascular disease, new │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ating-may-raise-cardiovascula │ research finds, especially │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ r-death-risk-in-the-long-term │ among people with underlying │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular disease or │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cancer. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Fasting Study Under Fire │ Those conclusions are │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ After Heart Conference - │ premature and misleading, says │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ WebMD │ Christopher Gardner, PhD, a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.webmd.com/heart-d │ professor of medicine at │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ isease/features/is-intermitte │ Stanford University... people │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nt-fasting-bad-for-heart-heal │ in the study group who │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ th │ consumed all their food in a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ daily window of 8 hours or │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ fewer had a higher percentage │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of men, African Americans, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ smoke. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ Intermittent Fasting - The │ intermittent fasting activated │ 0.78 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Impact on Autophagy, │ autophagy, a cellular process │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Inflammasome, and Senescence │ that breaks down components │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://nomix.ai/2024/05/24/f │ within cells. Autophagy has │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ asting-in-young-males-examini │ been linked to longevity... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ng-the-impact-on-autophagy-in │ p21 levels decreased during │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ flammasome-and-senescence-bio │ and after fasting. The │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ markers/ │ findings suggest that fasting │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ may contribute to delaying the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ onset of age-related diseases. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 11 │ Effect of fasting-mimicking │ Significant between-group │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ diet on markers of autophagy │ differences were observed in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and metabolic health in human │ changes from baseline to the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ subjects | GeroScience │ end of the 6-day dietary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://link.springer.com/art │ intervention for body weight, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ icle/10.1007/s11357-025-02035 │ fasting glucose, BHB, HOMA-IR, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -4 │ and autophagic flux (p < │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 0.05)... These results suggest │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ that FMD may improve │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ autophagic flux and markers of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ metabolic health. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Long-term human RCT data │ No randomized controlled │
|
||||||
|
│ │ on IF and all-cause │ trial has followed human │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mortality or lifespan │ participants long enough │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to measure actual │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ lifespan extension from │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ IF. All human longevity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence is based on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ biomarker surrogates or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ observational data. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Optimal IF protocol for │ Studies test different │
|
||||||
|
│ │ longevity in humans │ protocols (TRF, ADF, 5:2, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ FMD) with varying │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ durations and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ populations, making it │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ impossible to identify a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ single optimal regimen │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ for human longevity. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Cardiovascular safety of │ Short-term studies show │
|
||||||
|
│ │ long-term IF │ cardiovascular benefit │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (improved BP, glucose, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol), but the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2024 AHA observational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ study suggests possible │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ long-term cardiovascular │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mortality risk, with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ experts disputing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ methodology. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ IF effects across │ Most human studies focus │
|
||||||
|
│ │ diverse demographic │ on limited populations │
|
||||||
|
│ │ groups │ (e.g., young males, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ specific ethnic groups), │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ limiting generalizability │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of longevity findings. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ contradiction │ database │ time-restricted │ The AHA 2024 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ eating │ study claiming │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ 91% higher │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mortality NHANES │ cardiovascular │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ confounding │ death risk │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ variables │ contradicts │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ methodology │ short-term │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ critique 2024 │ studies showing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ CV benefit; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ deeper │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ methodological │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ analysis is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ warranted. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ spermidine │ The FORTH/Nature │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ autophagy │ Cell Biology │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ intermittent │ finding on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ fasting lifespan │ spermidine-mediat │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ human clinical │ ed autophagy is a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ trial 2024 │ novel mechanism │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ that may be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ testable in human │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ longevity trials. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ fasting mimicking │ A large │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ diet longevity │ registered RCT │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ diet RCT │ (NCT05698654) on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ NCT05698654 │ fasting-mimicking │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ results │ and longevity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ diet is underway; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ results could be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ transformative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ for the question │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ of human lifespan │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ extension. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ telomere length │ The Frontiers in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ intermittent │ Aging study on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ fasting exercise │ metabolic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ metabolomics │ signatures of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ aging biomarkers │ combined exercise │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2024 │ and fasting links │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ to telomere │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ length, a key │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ aging biomarker │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ worth │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ investigating │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ further. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Will ongoing large-scale RCTs │ No current RCT has followed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (e.g., NCT05698654) provide │ participants long enough to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ definitive evidence that IF │ measure actual lifespan; only │
|
||||||
|
│ │ extends human lifespan or │ biomarker surrogates have been │
|
||||||
|
│ │ healthspan? │ studied. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Does the cardiovascular │ Experts including Stanford's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mortality risk signal from the │ Christopher Gardner criticized │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2024 AHA observational study │ the study for not controlling │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hold up after controlling for │ for demographics, pre-existing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ confounders like pre-existing │ disease, and reason for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ illness and dietary quality? │ adopting IF. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Can spermidine supplementation │ FORTH research showed IF raises │
|
||||||
|
│ │ replicate the │ spermidine, which activates │
|
||||||
|
│ │ autophagy-activating, │ autophagy and promotes cell │
|
||||||
|
│ │ anti-aging effects of IF in │ survival, suggesting │
|
||||||
|
│ │ humans who cannot sustain │ supplementation as a potential │
|
||||||
|
│ │ fasting? │ proxy. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Which IF protocol (TRF, ADF, │ Multiple protocols are studied │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 5:2, or FMD) produces the │ with heterogeneous populations, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ greatest longevity-associated │ making comparative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ biomarker improvements in │ effectiveness unclear. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ diverse human populations? │ │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ Does the 92-year-old case study │ SAGE Journals reported this as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ of repeated 3-week annual │ the world's longest medically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ fasting over 45 years offer any │ documented repeated fasting │
|
||||||
|
│ │ generalizable insight into │ history; clinical parameters │
|
||||||
|
│ │ long-term IF and human │ showed cyclic variation. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ longevity? │ │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.72 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 9 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: True │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 62781 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 105.17s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: c4942f00-1b7a-40ba-a6e1-7eaae57b9ee3
|
||||||
260
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/13-contradiction.log
Normal file
260
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/13-contradiction.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,260 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Are nuclear power plants safe?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Are nuclear power plants safe?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:01.606512Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:02.435399Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:02.443368Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Are nuclear power plants safe?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:02.477384Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Are nuclear power plants safe?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:02.477723Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:02.477819Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 9, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1169, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:15.136739Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 16, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 11760, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:25.196255Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 29534/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:35.263571Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 24, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 33, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 29534, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:06:35.263885Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 25, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 58649, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:31.700545Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 40, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.92, "citation_count": 8, "gap_count": 3, "discovery_count": 3, "total_duration_sec": 92.558, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:31.701336Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.92, "citations": 8, "gaps": 3, "discovery_events": 3, "tokens_used": 63429, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 89.22308659553528, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:31.701429Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:31.701781Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:31.705585Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9", "confidence": 0.92, "citations": 8, "tokens_used": 63429, "wall_time_sec": 89.22308659553528, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:32.018740Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Yes, nuclear power plants are among the safest sources of electricity │
|
||||||
|
│ generation when measured by deaths per unit of energy produced. According to │
|
||||||
|
│ Statista (sourcing 2018 data), nuclear energy results in approximately 0.03 │
|
||||||
|
│ deaths per terawatt-hour (TWh), making it safer than wind (0.04), solar │
|
||||||
|
│ (0.02 is slightly lower), natural gas (2.82), biomass (4.63), hydro (1.3), │
|
||||||
|
│ oil (18.43), coal (24.62), and brown coal (32.72). A separate dataset from │
|
||||||
|
│ ResearchGate reports 0.04 deaths per billion kWh for nuclear, compared to │
|
||||||
|
│ 100 for coal. Despite three major accidents—Three Mile Island (1979), │
|
||||||
|
│ Chernobyl (1986), and Fukushima (2011)—the overall fatality record remains │
|
||||||
|
│ exceptionally low. At Chernobyl, the worst nuclear accident in history, 2 │
|
||||||
|
│ workers died in the initial explosion, 28 of 134 acute radiation syndrome │
|
||||||
|
│ patients later died, and roughly 5,000 thyroid cancer cases were │
|
||||||
|
│ attributable to radiation exposure among those under 18 at the time │
|
||||||
|
│ (Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission). Stanford researchers estimated │
|
||||||
|
│ Fukushima may cause approximately 130 deaths and 180 cancer cases globally, │
|
||||||
|
│ in addition to ~600 evacuation-related deaths. Three Mile Island caused no │
|
||||||
|
│ direct radiation deaths. U.S. nuclear plants operate under strict NRC │
|
||||||
|
│ oversight using a 'defense-in-depth' multi-layer safety approach (U.S. │
|
||||||
|
│ Department of Energy). The IAEA also sets international design and safety │
|
||||||
|
│ standards. Public perception of nuclear risk is widely considered │
|
||||||
|
│ disproportionate to the statistical evidence. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Global deaths per energy │ Brown coal 32.72 | Coal 24.62 │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ source | Statista │ | Oil 18.43 | Biomass 4.63 | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.statista.com/stat │ Natural gas 2.82 | Hydro 1.3 | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ istics/494425/death-rate-worl │ Wind 0.04 | Nuclear 0.03 | │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dwide-by-energy-source/ │ Solar 0.02. Death rates are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ measured based on deaths from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ accidents and air pollution │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ per terawatt-hour (TWh) of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ electricity. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ rates for each energy source │ 100 for coal, 36 for oil, 24 │ 0.91 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in deaths per billion kWh │ for biofuel/biomass, 4 for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ produced... | ResearchGate │ natural gas, 1.4 for hydro, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.researchgate.net/ │ 0.44 for solar, 0.15 for wind │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ figure/rates-for-each-energy- │ and 0.04 for nuclear. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ source-in-deaths-per-billion- │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ kWh-produced-Source-Updated_t │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ bl2_272406182 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Health effects of the │ The initial steam explosion at │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Chornobyl accident | Canadian │ the Chornobyl nuclear plant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Nuclear Safety Commission │ resulted in the deaths of 2 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.cnsc-ccsn.gc.ca/e │ workers, and 134 plant staff │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ng/resources/health/health-ef │ and emergency workers suffered │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ fects-chornobyl-accident/ │ acute radiation syndrome due │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to high doses of radiation. Of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ these 134 people, 28 later │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ died. About 5,000 thyroid │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cancer cases were due to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ radioactive iodine │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (iodine-131) exposure to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ children or adolescents at the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ time of the accident. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Stanford researchers │ Radiation from Japan's │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ calculate global health │ Fukushima Daiichi nuclear │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ impacts of the Fukushima │ disaster may eventually cause │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nuclear disaster | Stanford │ approximately 130 deaths and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ University │ 180 cases of cancer, mostly in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://engineering.stanford. │ Japan, Stanford researchers │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ edu/news/stanford-researchers │ have calculated. The numbers │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -calculate-global-health-impa │ are in addition to the roughly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cts-fukushima-nuclear-disaste │ 600 deaths caused by the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ r │ evacuation of the area │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ surrounding the nuclear plant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ directly after the March 2011 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ earthquake, tsunami and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ meltdown. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Enhanced Safety of Advanced │ U.S. nuclear power plants are │ 0.96 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Reactors | U.S. Department of │ already among the safest and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Energy │ most secure industrial │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.energy.gov/ne/enh │ facilities in the world due to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ anced-safety-advanced-reactor │ the industry's commitment to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s │ comprehensive safety │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ procedures, robust training │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ programs and stringent federal │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ regulation that keep nuclear │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ plants and neighboring │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ communities safe. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Three Mile Island, Chernobyl │ Estimates on nuclear's overall │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and Fukushima accidents haunt │ mortality rate are comparable │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nuclear's past | MinnPost │ to solar or wind power (and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.minnpost.com/othe │ roughly 2.5% that of hydro │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ r-nonprofit-media/2023/10/thr │ power). Oil and coal, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ee-mile-island-chernobyl-and- │ meanwhile, are as much as 800 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ fukushima-accidents-haunt-nuc │ times higher. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ lears-past-will-they-dictate- │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ its-future/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Devastating Consequences of │ The Chernobyl disaster, which │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Nuclear Accidents: Chernobyl, │ occurred on April 26, 1986, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Fukushima and Three Mile │ was the most significant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Island | SciTechnol │ nuclear accident in history. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.scitechnol.com/pe │ The explosion and fire at the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ er-review/devastating-consequ │ Chernobyl nuclear power plant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ences-of-nuclear-accidents-ch │ in Ukraine resulted in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ernobyl-fukushima-and-three-m │ release of large amounts of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ile-island-HLGS.php?article_i │ radioactive material into the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ d=21379 │ atmosphere, leading to the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ deaths of 31 people, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ causing widespread │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ contamination of the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ surrounding areas. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Laying the Foundation for New │ Domestic power reactors are │ 0.94 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and Advanced Nuclear Reactors │ tightly regulated by the U.S. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in the United States | │ Nuclear Regulatory Commission │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ National Academies │ (NRC) in all phases of their │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.nationalacademies │ life cycle—design, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ .org/read/26630/chapter/9 │ construction, operations, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ decommissioning. The NRC is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ charged with licensing and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ regulation of plants to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ provide reasonable assurance │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of adequate protection of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ public health and safety. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Long-term cancer │ Estimates of total │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mortality estimates from │ Chernobyl-attributed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Chernobyl │ cancer deaths vary widely │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ across sources, from │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ hundreds (WHO/UNSCEAR │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ conservative estimates) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to tens of thousands │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (Greenpeace/TORCH │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ report), making a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ definitive number │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ difficult to cite. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Comparative safety of │ Evidence gathered focuses │
|
||||||
|
│ │ advanced/next-generation │ on existing reactor fleet │
|
||||||
|
│ │ reactors (Gen IV, SMRs) │ safety records; safety │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ data specific to small │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ modular reactors (SMRs) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ or Gen IV designs was not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ retrieved. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Nuclear waste long-term │ While radioactive waste │
|
||||||
|
│ │ safety statistics │ management was briefly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mentioned, quantitative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ long-term health risk │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ data from waste storage │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ was not found in the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ retrieved sources. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ nuclear power │ A systematic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ plant safety │ academic review │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mortality │ post-2020 could │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ statistics │ provide updated │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ systematic review │ mortality │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2020-2025 │ statistics │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ incorporating the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ full operational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ history of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ Fukushima │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ cleanup. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ IAEA PRIS nuclear │ The IAEA Power │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ power plant │ Reactor │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ operational │ Information │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ safety incidents │ System (PRIS) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ database │ contains │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ comprehensive │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ incident and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ safety data for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ all global │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ nuclear plants. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradiction │ database │ Chernobyl total │ SciTechnol source │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ excess cancer │ cites 31 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ deaths estimates │ Chernobyl deaths │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ UNSCEAR vs WHO vs │ while CNSC cites │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ independent │ 28+2=30, and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ researchers │ long-term cancer │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ projections │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ differ vastly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ between │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ organizations. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How do small modular reactors │ The DOE page on enhanced safety │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (SMRs) compare in safety │ of advanced reactors mentions │
|
||||||
|
│ │ profile to traditional │ new designs but no comparative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ large-scale nuclear plants? │ safety mortality data was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available in the evidence. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ What is the total projected │ Sources give conflicting │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cancer death toll from │ numbers; CNSC cites 28 direct │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Chernobyl according to the most │ deaths but does not give a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ recent UNSCEAR assessment? │ total long-term cancer │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ projection. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Does nuclear power's safety │ Chernobyl and Fukushima both │
|
||||||
|
│ │ record hold across all │ involved regulatory failures; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ countries, including those with │ safety statistics may differ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ less stringent regulatory │ between high-regulation and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ frameworks? │ low-regulation countries. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How does nuclear power's safety │ Statista notes deaths are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compare when including the │ measured from 'accidents and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ health risks from uranium │ air pollution' per TWh, which │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mining and fuel processing? │ may not fully account for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ upstream fuel cycle risks. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 8 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 63429 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 89.22s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 2e2b6e88-c973-4422-919c-3838634336c9
|
||||||
358
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/14-contradiction.log
Normal file
358
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/14-contradiction.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,358 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Is dietary cholesterol harmful?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Is dietary cholesterol harmful?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:32.656017Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:33.414998Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:33.424151Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Is dietary cholesterol harmful?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:33.456353Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Is dietary cholesterol harmful?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:33.456707Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:33.456830Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 11, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1218, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:51.522768Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 18, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 14738, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:07:58.291229Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 27, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 31680/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:08:14.672921Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 28, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 33, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 31680, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:08:14.673116Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 29, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 82227, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:33.529276Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 50, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.78, "citation_count": 13, "gap_count": 3, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 124.559, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:33.531034Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.78, "citations": 13, "gaps": 3, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 64718, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 120.07263135910034, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:33.531291Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:33.531771Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:33.538771Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696", "confidence": 0.78, "citations": 13, "tokens_used": 64718, "wall_time_sec": 120.07263135910034, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:33.877746Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ The question of whether dietary cholesterol is harmful is nuanced and │
|
||||||
|
│ remains an area of active scientific debate. Here is a synthesis of the │
|
||||||
|
│ current evidence: │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 1. **Dietary cholesterol vs. blood cholesterol**: The body produces most of │
|
||||||
|
│ its own cholesterol, and dietary cholesterol has a relatively modest and │
|
||||||
|
│ variable effect on blood (serum) cholesterol levels. Epidemiological studies │
|
||||||
|
│ and clinical interventions have largely shown that dietary cholesterol │
|
||||||
|
│ intake does not significantly impact blood cholesterol in most individuals │
|
||||||
|
│ [PMC6024687; PMC9143438]. A meta-analysis of 224 studies (8,143 subjects) │
|
||||||
|
│ found only modest increases in both LDL and HDL when dietary cholesterol is │
|
||||||
|
│ increased [Consensus Academic Search]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 2. **CVD risk from observational studies**: A 2020 AHA Science Advisory │
|
||||||
|
│ (Carson et al., Circulation) found a significant positive relationship │
|
||||||
|
│ between dietary cholesterol intake and blood LDL, but evidence from │
|
||||||
|
│ observational studies generally does not indicate a significant association │
|
||||||
|
│ with cardiovascular disease risk [AHA Journals, │
|
||||||
|
│ doi:10.1161/CIR.0000000000000743]. However, a large pooled cohort study │
|
||||||
|
│ (n=29,615, published in JAMA) found each additional 300 mg/day of dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ cholesterol was associated with higher risk of incident CVD and all-cause │
|
||||||
|
│ mortality [PACE-CME; The Cardiology Advisor]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 3. **Updated dietary guidelines**: The 2015–2020 U.S. Dietary Guidelines │
|
||||||
|
│ removed the previous 300 mg/day dietary cholesterol limit, citing no │
|
||||||
|
│ appreciable relationship between dietary cholesterol and serum cholesterol. │
|
||||||
|
│ However, this decision was contested by scientists who argued the evidence │
|
||||||
|
│ was insufficient rather than exculpatory [Regulations.gov scientists' │
|
||||||
|
│ comment; PMC6024687]. The AHA's 2026 dietary guidance states that dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ cholesterol is 'no longer a primary target for CVD risk reduction for most │
|
||||||
|
│ people,' though it still advises limiting cholesterol-rich foods [AHA │
|
||||||
|
│ Journals, doi:10.1161/CIR.0000000000001435]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 4. **Individual variability**: People differ substantially in how they │
|
||||||
|
│ respond to dietary cholesterol—'hyper-responders' see more significant LDL │
|
||||||
|
│ increases than 'hypo-responders.' Genetic and hormonal factors play │
|
||||||
|
│ important roles [ScienceDirect hypo/hyperresponders; PubMed 12074253]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 5. **Eggs as a cholesterol source**: Eggs are the primary dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ cholesterol source studied. Evidence on egg consumption and CVD is │
|
||||||
|
│ inconsistent. A 2025 umbrella review found 'critically low' quality of │
|
||||||
|
│ evidence and concluded there is no sufficient evidence to discourage egg │
|
||||||
|
│ consumption, though weak associations with higher LDL and heart failure risk │
|
||||||
|
│ were noted [ScienceDirect, doi:10.1016/j.numecd.2025.103849]. A BMJ │
|
||||||
|
│ meta-analysis suggested higher egg consumption could be associated with │
|
||||||
|
│ higher CVD risk [BMJ m513]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 6. **Saturated fat confounding**: Most foods high in dietary cholesterol are │
|
||||||
|
│ also high in saturated fat, which does raise LDL cholesterol and CVD risk. │
|
||||||
|
│ Eggs and shrimp are notable exceptions [PMC6024687]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Bottom line**: For most people, dietary cholesterol in moderate amounts is │
|
||||||
|
│ unlikely to be a primary driver of CVD risk. However, it is not completely │
|
||||||
|
│ benign—particularly for hyper-responders or people with diabetes—and the │
|
||||||
|
│ overall dietary pattern (especially saturated fat intake) matters more than │
|
||||||
|
│ dietary cholesterol in isolation. Caution is still warranted, and individual │
|
||||||
|
│ factors should guide dietary choices. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Dietary Cholesterol and the │ To date, extensive research │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Lack of Evidence in │ did not show evidence to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cardiovascular Disease - PMC │ support a role of dietary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ cholesterol in the development │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC6024687/ │ of CVD. As a result, the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2015–2020 Dietary Guidelines │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ for Americans removed the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ recommendations of restricting │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dietary cholesterol to 300 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mg/day. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Is There a Correlation │ it was not until the late │ 0.91 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ between Dietary and Blood │ 1990s when they were finally │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cholesterol? Evidence from │ challenged by the newer │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Epidemiological Data and │ information derived from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Clinical Interventions - PMC │ epidemiological studies and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ meta-analysis, which confirmed │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ articles/PMC9143438/ │ the lack of correlation │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ between dietary and blood │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Dietary Cholesterol and │ Evidence from observational │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cardiovascular Risk: A │ studies conducted in several │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Science Advisory from the AHA │ countries generally does not │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.ahajournals.org/d │ indicate a significant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oi/full/10.1161/CIR.000000000 │ association with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 0000743 │ cardiovascular disease risk. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Dietary Cholesterol and │ Differences in dietary │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cardiovascular Risk: A │ cholesterol ranged from 155 to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Science Advisory (full text) │ 1000 mg/d. A significant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.ahajournals.org/d │ positive relationship was │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oi/10.1161/CIR.00000000000007 │ identified between dietary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 43 │ cholesterol │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ 2026 Dietary Guidance to │ Dietary cholesterol is no │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Improve Cardiovascular Health │ longer a primary target for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.ahajournals.org/d │ CVD risk reduction for most │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oi/10.1161/CIR.00000000000014 │ people. Nevertheless, heart │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 35 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Higher consumption of dietary │ Among US adults, higher intake │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cholesterol or eggs linked to │ of dietary cholesterol or eggs │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ increased risk of incident │ was significantly linked to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ CVD and mortality - PACE-CME │ increased risk of incident CVD │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://pace-cme.org/news/hig │ and all-cause mortality in a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ her-consumption-of-dietary-ch │ dose-response manner, which │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ olesterol-or-eggs-linked-to-i │ was independent of nutrients │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ncreased-risk-of-incident-cvd │ or diets │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -and-mortality/2455413/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ After Continued Debate, │ Each additional 300 mg of │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Dietary Cholesterol Linked to │ dietary cholesterol consumed │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Significant Increase in CVD - │ per day was significantly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ The Cardiology Advisor │ associated with a higher risk │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.thecardiologyadvi │ for incident CVD and all-cause │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sor.com/home/topics/metabolic │ mortality, as was each │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /dyslipidemia/after-continued │ additional half an egg │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -debate-dietary-cholesterol-l │ consumed per day. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ inked-to-significant-increase │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -in-cvd/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Scientists' Comment on │ dietary cholesterol is very │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Dietary Cholesterol - │ much a 'nutrient of concern,' │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Regulations.gov │ because it increases LDL │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://downloads.regulations │ cholesterol, a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ .gov/FDA-2018-P-1593-0049/att │ well-established risk factor │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ achment_2.pdf │ for coronary heart disease. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Furthermore, the consumption │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of whole eggs is associated │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ with the risk of type 2 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ diabetes │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Dietary Cholesterol And Blood │ A meta-analysis of 224 studies │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Cholesterol - Consensus │ involving 8,143 subjects found │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Academic Search Engine │ that dietary cholesterol │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://consensus.app/questio │ intake leads to modest │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ns/dietary-cholesterol-and-bl │ increases in both LDL and HDL │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ood-cholesterol/ │ cholesterol levels. The study │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ highlighted that while dietary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol does raise serum │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol levels, the effect │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is relatively small and varies │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ among individuals. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ Effect of egg consumption on │ The overall quality of studies │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ health outcomes: Updated │ was critically low. The level │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ umbrella review - │ of evidence was very weak for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ScienceDirect │ all the significant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.sciencedirect.com │ associations: risk of heart │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /science/article/pii/S0939475 │ failure (RR 1.15; 95%CI: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 325000031 │ 1.02–1.30)... higher levels of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ LDL cholesterol (WMD 7.39; │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 95%CI 5.82–8.95)... No │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence of association was │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ found among all cardiovascular │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ outcomes and all-cause │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mortality risk │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 11 │ Egg consumption and risk of │ Results from our updated │ 0.84 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cardiovascular disease - The │ meta-analysis suggest that │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ BMJ │ higher egg consumption could │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.bmj.com/content/3 │ be associated with a higher │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 68/bmj.m513 │ risk of cardiovascular disease │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 12 │ Hypo- and hyperresponders to │ Hypo- and hyperresponders to │ 0.78 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dietary cholesterol - │ dietary cholesterol │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ScienceDirect │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.sciencedirect.com │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /science/article/abs/pii/S000 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2916523398897 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 13 │ Here's the latest on dietary │ More recently, accumulating │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cholesterol and how it fits │ data has caused researchers to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in with a healthy diet | │ broaden their thinking about │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ American Heart Association │ how dietary cholesterol – and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.heart.org/en/news │ eggs – fit into a healthy │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /2023/08/25/heres-the-latest- │ eating pattern. 'We've │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ on-dietary-cholesterol-and-ho │ advanced considerably,' said │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ w-it-fits-in-with-a-healthy-d │ professor Linda Van Horn │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ iet │ │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Long-term RCT data on │ Most evidence comes from │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dietary cholesterol and │ observational studies or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hard CVD endpoints │ short-term interventions. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ There are no large, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ long-term randomized │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ controlled trials │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ directly testing reduced │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dietary cholesterol │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ versus hard CVD outcomes │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ like myocardial │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ infarction or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular death. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Dietary cholesterol │ While some sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ effects in specific │ mention increased CVD │
|
||||||
|
│ │ high-risk subgroups │ risk from eggs in people │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (diabetes, familial │ with diabetes, the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hypercholesterolemia) │ gathered evidence does │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ not deeply characterize │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ effects in all high-risk │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ subgroups such as │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ familial │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ hypercholesterolemia │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ patients. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Mechanisms │ Confounding between │
|
||||||
|
│ │ distinguishing dietary │ dietary cholesterol and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cholesterol from │ saturated fat intake │
|
||||||
|
│ │ saturated fat effects │ makes it difficult to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ isolate dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol's independent │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ effect on CVD; different │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ studies handle this │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ confounder differently, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ leading to inconsistent │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ conclusions. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ contradiction │ database │ dietary │ The evidence is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol CVD │ contradictory │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ risk randomized │ between large │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ controlled trial │ observational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ meta-analysis │ pooled cohorts │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2020 2024 │ (showing CVD │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ risk) and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ intervention/epid │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ emiological │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ reviews (showing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ no significant │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ association), │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ warranting deeper │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ RCT-level │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ analysis. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ lean mass │ A distinct │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ hyper-responder │ phenotype (lean │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ LDL dietary │ mass │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol │ hyper-responders) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ shows pronounced │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ risk 2023 2024 │ LDL increases on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ low-carb diets │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ high in dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ fat/cholesterol, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ with unclear CVD │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ implications. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ dietary │ Multiple sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol type │ mention │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2 diabetes risk │ association │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ eggs 2020 2024 │ between │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ meta-analysis │ egg/cholesterol │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ intake and type 2 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ diabetes risk, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ which is not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ fully explored in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ the gathered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ database │ ACC AHA 2026 │ New 2026 ACC/AHA │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dyslipidemia │ dyslipidemia │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ guidelines │ guidelines were │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dietary │ referenced but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol │ only partially │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ recommendations │ retrieved; full │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ cholesterol │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ guidance warrants │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ review. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Should dietary cholesterol │ Scientists' comments on the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ recommendations differ for │ 2015 dietary guidelines and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ people with diabetes or │ some observational studies │
|
||||||
|
│ │ familial hypercholesterolemia │ suggest egg/cholesterol intake │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compared to the general │ may increase CHD risk │
|
||||||
|
│ │ population? │ specifically in people with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ diabetes. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Do LDL cholesterol │ Research shows wide individual │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hyper-responders to dietary │ variability in LDL response to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cholesterol face meaningfully │ dietary cholesterol; it is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ higher long-term CVD risk, and │ unclear whether │
|
||||||
|
│ │ should they restrict dietary │ hyper-responders have elevated │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cholesterol? │ CVD risk and need tailored │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ advice. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How much of the observed CVD │ PMC6024687 notes most │
|
||||||
|
│ │ risk associated with dietary │ high-cholesterol foods are also │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cholesterol in observational │ high in saturated fat; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ studies is attributable to │ isolating dietary cholesterol's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ saturated fat co-ingestion │ independent effect is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ rather than cholesterol itself? │ methodologically challenging. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the effect of dietary │ PACE-CME study noted that CVD │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cholesterol within the context │ risk association from dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ of a high-quality overall diet │ cholesterol was independent of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (e.g., Mediterranean or DASH │ overall diet quality, but this │
|
||||||
|
│ │ diet)? │ needs further investigation. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Does the food matrix (e.g., │ The 2025 umbrella review of egg │
|
||||||
|
│ │ eggs vs. red meat) in which │ consumption found weak │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dietary cholesterol is consumed │ associations; it is unclear if │
|
||||||
|
│ │ modify its impact on CVD risk? │ the source of dietary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol modulates risk │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ independently of the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cholesterol content. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.78 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 13 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: True │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 64718 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 120.07s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 27d81891-5bf2-4bf4-9744-55f39ffaf696
|
||||||
48
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/15-contradiction.log
Normal file
48
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/15-contradiction.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: Does screen time harm child development?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Does screen time harm child development?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:34.721867Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:35.602647Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:35.613025Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "Does screen time harm child development?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:35.653113Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "Does screen time harm child development?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:35.653592Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:35.653723Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1126, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:45.628661Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 14, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 10139, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:51.476900Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 21, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 23391/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:58.056368Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 22, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 22, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 23391, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:09:58.056571Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 74986, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:10.739493Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 24, "decision": "Failed to build ResearchResult: 1 validation error for DiscoveryEvent\nquery\n Input should be a valid string [type=string_type, input_value=None, input_type=NoneType]\n For further information visit https://errors.pydantic.dev/2.12/v/string_type", "event": "synthesis_build_error", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:10.753603Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 26, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.1, "citation_count": 0, "gap_count": 1, "discovery_count": 0, "total_duration_sec": 98.512, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:10.755661Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.1, "citations": 0, "gaps": 1, "discovery_events": 0, "tokens_used": 44375, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 95.08588027954102, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:10.755895Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:10.757071Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:10.770530Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2", "confidence": 0.1, "citations": 0, "tokens_used": 44375, "wall_time_sec": 95.08588027954102, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:11.105698Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Research on 'Does screen time harm child development?' completed but │
|
||||||
|
│ synthesis failed. 22 sources were gathered. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
No citations.
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ budget_exhausted │ synthesis │ The synthesis step failed to produce │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ structured output. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────┴───────────────────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.10 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 0 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: low │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.00 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: unknown │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 44375 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 95.09s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 9c18d570-73d3-4e8a-98bc-7cb1b66c61d2
|
||||||
321
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/16-scope.log
Normal file
321
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/16-scope.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,321 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: What proprietary indexing strategies do high-frequency trading
|
||||||
|
firms use for order book reconstruction?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What proprietary indexing strategies do high-frequency trading firms use for order book reconstruction?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:11.888630Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:12.816801Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:12.829566Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What proprietary indexing strategies do high-frequency trading firms use for order book reconstruction?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:12.871225Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "What proprietary indexing strategies do high-frequency trading firms use for order book reconstruction?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:12.871693Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:12.872051Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 9, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1212, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:27.416025Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 16, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 15135, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:33.632271Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 35581/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:40.723229Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 24, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 35, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 35581, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:11:40.723491Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 25, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 72229, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:50.638239Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 42, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.72, "citation_count": 8, "gap_count": 4, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 101.111, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:50.639828Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.72, "citations": 8, "gaps": 4, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 70892, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 97.76683187484741, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:50.639933Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:50.640430Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:50.648897Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7", "confidence": 0.72, "citations": 8, "tokens_used": 70892, "wall_time_sec": 97.76683187484741, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:50.931342Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ High-frequency trading firms use several proprietary and semi-documented │
|
||||||
|
│ indexing strategies for order book reconstruction, though most production │
|
||||||
|
│ details remain trade secrets. Based on available evidence: │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 1. **Hash Table + Array Hybrid**: The most commonly cited production │
|
||||||
|
│ approach combines plain arrays (for cache-friendly sequential memory access │
|
||||||
|
│ minimizing cache misses) with hash tables (for O(1) lookup of specific price │
|
||||||
|
│ levels). This codesign optimizes both speed and cache locality. [Sources 15, │
|
||||||
|
│ 16, 28] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 2. **B-Tree / ISAM Indexing**: The historically significant Island ECN │
|
||||||
|
│ (1996), built by Josh Levine, used in-memory B-tree indexing via an ISAM │
|
||||||
|
│ storage engine with zero disk access during matching, achieving O(log N) │
|
||||||
|
│ access per price level. This is considered the documented proof-of-concept │
|
||||||
|
│ for production-grade LOB indexing. [Source 29] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 3. **Hybrid Binary-Linear Search**: A IEEE-documented approach proposes a │
|
||||||
|
│ simple linear data structure for tracking the order book combined with a │
|
||||||
|
│ hybrid binary-linear search algorithm to maintain top bid/ask with minimal │
|
||||||
|
│ latency. [Source 19] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 4. **ROI Vector (Region-of-Interest Vector)**: Used in backtesting │
|
||||||
|
│ frameworks like HftBacktest, this approach restricts the active price range │
|
||||||
|
│ to a bounded region of interest, enabling vector-based O(1) access within │
|
||||||
|
│ the ROI while avoiding full-book scanning. [Source 25, 35] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 5. **Lock-Free Concurrent Data Structures**: To handle concurrent updates │
|
||||||
|
│ without mutex overhead, firms implement lock-free data structures allowing │
|
||||||
|
│ multiple threads to update the LOB simultaneously. [Sources 15, 16] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 6. **Event-Driven with Selective Polling Hybrid**: The LOB primarily │
|
||||||
|
│ operates event-driven but incorporates high-frequency polling for the most │
|
||||||
|
│ latency-sensitive execution pathways, ensuring sub-microsecond │
|
||||||
|
│ responsiveness. [Sources 15, 16] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 7. **Order Record Reuse (Object Pooling)**: Levine's Island engine reused │
|
||||||
|
│ recently freed order records for new orders—described as 'hugely │
|
||||||
|
│ important'—a form of memory pooling that avoids allocation overhead during │
|
||||||
|
│ high-throughput periods. [Source 29] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 8. **Structural Filtration for Signal Quality**: Recent research (2025) │
|
||||||
|
│ proposes filtering transient LOB events by order lifetime, update count, or │
|
||||||
|
│ inter-update delay before indexing, improving directional signal quality │
|
||||||
|
│ (OBI) extracted from the reconstructed book. [Source 6] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ Notably, red-black trees—frequently cited in academic literature—are rarely │
|
||||||
|
│ used in production due to poor cache behavior versus simpler arrays at │
|
||||||
|
│ realistic market depths. The key insight from practitioners is that │
|
||||||
|
│ algorithmic data structure choice (O(log N) vs O(N)) dominates hardware │
|
||||||
|
│ investment: a $2M co-location/FPGA upgrade produced no measurable latency │
|
||||||
|
│ improvement when the underlying order book used a sorted array with O(N) │
|
||||||
|
│ inserts. [Source 23, 29] │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Matching Engine Architecture: │ Josh Levine built the Island │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Why Your Order Book Data │ matching engine in FoxPro for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Structure Is the Real Latency │ MS-DOS... The order book used │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Bottleneck │ in-memory B-tree indexing via │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://electronictradinghub. │ an ISAM storage engine. Zero │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ com/matching-engine-architect │ disk access during matching. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ure-why-your-order-book-data- │ Every price level accessed in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ structure-is-the-real-latency │ O(log N) time. Levine's │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -bottleneck/ │ optimization for new-order │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ entry latency: reuse recently │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ freed order records for new │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ orders — a detail he called │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 'hugely important' │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Optimizing Limit Order Book │ I use a combination of plain │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for HFT Systems │ arrays and hash tables to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.linkedin.com/post │ manage the LOB. Arrays are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s/silahian_hft-hft-trading-ac │ highly effective with CPU │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tivity-7351226537301417988-ei │ caches, offering sequential │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ cX │ memory access that minimizes │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cache misses. The integration │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of hash tables provides quick │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ access to specific entries, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ensuring that both speed and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cache locality are optimized. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Red Black Trees for Limit │ They're not necessarily ideal. │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Order Book - Quantitative │ In fact, they're rarely used │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Finance Stack Exchange │ in production trading systems │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://quant.stackexchange.c │ with low latency │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ om/questions/63140/red-black- │ requirements... a simple array │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ trees-for-limit-order-book │ or vector with linear access │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ patterns will often outperform │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ any complex data structure │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ with better asymptotic runtime │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ because a simple array │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Order Book Reconstruction - │ HashMapMarketDepth... │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ HftBacktest │ BTreeMarketDepth... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://mintlify.com/nkaz001/ │ ROIVectorMarketDepth::new(tick │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hftbacktest/concepts/order-bo │ _size, lot_size, roi_lb, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ok │ roi_ub)... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ FusedHashMapMarketDepth │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Order Book Filtration and │ Three real-time, observable │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Directional Signal Extraction │ filtration schemes: based on │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ at High Frequency │ order lifetime, update count, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://arxiv.org/html/2507.2 │ and inter-update delay. These │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2712v1 │ are used to recompute OBI on │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ structurally filtered event │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ streams... Empirical results │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ show that structural │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ filtration improves │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ directional signal clarity in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ correlation and regime-based │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ metrics │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Building Low-Latency Order │ This paper proposes a simple │ 0.80 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Books with Hybrid │ linear data structure for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Binary-Linear ... │ tracking the order book and a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/d │ hybrid binary-linear search │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ocument/10296447/ │ algorithm to maintain the top │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ bid and ask │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Order Book Reconstruction - │ Index reusing... Regional │ 0.75 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dxFeed KB │ events... Event flags │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://kb.dxfeed.com/en/data │ applicable to Order event... │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -model/dxfeed-order-book/orde │ Snapshots... Transaction │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ r-book-reconstruction.html │ model... dxFeed market data │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ feeds (real-time, delayed or │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ historical) allow clients to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reconstruct order books, price │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ level aggregations, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ aggregations by Market Maker │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ or a data provider. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ GitHub - │ This Limit Order Book is │ 0.70 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ brprojects/Limit-Order-Book │ developed in C++ from scratch │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://github.com/brprojects │ and able to handle over │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /Limit-Order-Book │ 1,400,000 TPS (transactions │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ per second), including Market, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Limit, Stop and Stop Limit │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ orders. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Proprietary FPGA-based │ Actual FPGA hardware │
|
||||||
|
│ │ order book indexing schemes │ implementations used by │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ firms like Virtu, Jane │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Street, or Citadel for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ on-chip order book indexing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ are not publicly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ documented. MIT project │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ proposal references FPGA │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ LOB but lacks │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ implementation details. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Exact data structures used │ No public disclosure exists │
|
||||||
|
│ │ by specific named HFT firms │ for the specific indexing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ implementations of major │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ HFT firms (e.g., Virtu, Two │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Sigma, Jump Trading). All │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence is from │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ practitioners sharing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ general principles or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ academic reconstructions. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Co-location-specific memory │ NUMA-aware memory │
|
||||||
|
│ │ topology optimization for │ allocation and CPU affinity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ LOB │ strategies for LOB │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ processes in co-located │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ environments are referenced │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ but not detailed in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Crypto-specific LOB │ While one Medium article │
|
||||||
|
│ │ indexing differences vs │ covers crypto HFT system │
|
||||||
|
│ │ equity markets │ design, it does not detail │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ how LOB indexing strategies │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ differ for 24/7 crypto │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ markets with different tick │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ structures. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ FPGA order book │ The MIT HFT │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ matching engine │ Accelerator paper │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ hardware │ and FPGA │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ implementation │ references │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ nanosecond │ suggest │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ latency │ significant │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ unpublished work │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ hardware-accelera │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ ted LOB indexing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ that would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ directly answer │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ the proprietary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ indexing question │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ limit order book │ Cache-oblivious │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ data structure │ structures like │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cache-oblivious │ van Emde Boas │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ van Emde Boas │ trees are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tree HFT │ theoretically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ optimal for LOB │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ operations but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ not mentioned in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ sources; academic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ literature may │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ document their │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ use │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ database │ Island ECN Levine │ The Island ECN │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ order book ISAM │ B-tree/ISAM │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ indexing original │ reference is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ documentation │ cited secondhand; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 1996 │ primary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ documentation │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ would provide │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ authoritative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ details on the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ original │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ production │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ indexing strategy │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ order book │ L3 order-by-order │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reconstruction L3 │ reconstruction │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tick data index │ requires │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ compression high │ per-order │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ frequency │ indexing by │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ order_id which │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ has different │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ data structure │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ requirements than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ L2 price-level │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ indexing │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Do modern HFT firms use │ Sources confirm cache-friendly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ NUMA-aware memory allocation │ arrays dominate in production, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ strategies specifically tuned │ but NUMA effects in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for order book price-level │ multi-socket co-located servers │
|
||||||
|
│ │ index structures, and how does │ are not addressed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ this interact with CPU cache │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ topology? │ │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How do HFT firms handle the │ dxFeed documentation describes │
|
||||||
|
│ │ transition from snapshot-based │ snapshot and transaction models │
|
||||||
|
│ │ full order book state to │ separately; the handoff between │
|
||||||
|
│ │ incremental delta updates in │ these modes in production │
|
||||||
|
│ │ their indexing layer without │ indexing is not detailed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ introducing consistency gaps? │ │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the practical │ HftBacktest documents both │
|
||||||
|
│ │ throughput and latency tradeoff │ structures but does not provide │
|
||||||
|
│ │ between ROIVectorMarketDepth │ comparative benchmarks for edge │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and FusedHashMapMarketDepth │ cases like flash crashes where │
|
||||||
|
│ │ implementations under real │ price moves outside the ROI │
|
||||||
|
│ │ market conditions with large │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ price spikes? │ │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Does structural LOB filtration │ The filtration paper shows │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (by order lifetime or update │ improved OBI signal quality but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ count) as proposed in the 2025 │ acknowledges limited gains in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ arxiv paper degrade order book │ causal excitation; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ reconstruction accuracy under │ accuracy-speed tradeoff for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ normal market conditions │ indexing filtered vs raw │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compared to raw feeds? │ streams is unresolved │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ low │ How do exchanges like LMAX, │ The electronictradinghub │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Tokyo Stock Exchange, and NSE │ article cites these exchanges │
|
||||||
|
│ │ India differ in their │ as modern evidence but does not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ recommended order book │ detail their specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ reconstruction protocols, and │ reconstruction protocol │
|
||||||
|
│ │ do these differences force │ differences │
|
||||||
|
│ │ different indexing strategies │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ on client-side HFT systems? │ │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.72 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 8 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: medium │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.65 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 70892 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 97.77s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: f4c43973-7cac-4193-a249-cbb1302de4f7
|
||||||
344
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/17-scope.log
Normal file
344
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/17-scope.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,344 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: What is the actual operational doctrine of Chinese DF-41 ICBM
|
||||||
|
brigades?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What is the actual operational doctrine of Chinese DF-41 ICBM brigades?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:51.608714Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:52.450376Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:52.459819Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What is the actual operational doctrine of Chinese DF-41 ICBM brigades?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:52.495811Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "What is the actual operational doctrine of Chinese DF-41 ICBM brigades?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:52.496319Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:12:52.496431Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1194, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:13:05.548923Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 16, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 8831, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:13:18.572224Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 31917/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:13:36.495991Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 24, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 31, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 31917, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:13:36.496215Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 25, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 90409, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:04.659059Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 46, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.72, "citation_count": 12, "gap_count": 4, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 136.645, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:04.687651Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.72, "citations": 12, "gaps": 4, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 62857, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 132.16255736351013, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:04.687981Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:04.688728Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:04.696829Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9", "confidence": 0.72, "citations": 12, "tokens_used": 62857, "wall_time_sec": 132.16255736351013, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:04.924751Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Chinese DF-41 ICBM brigade operational doctrine encompasses several key │
|
||||||
|
│ elements based on open-source intelligence and defense analysis: │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Basing and Mobility**: DF-41 brigades operate under a tri-basing doctrine │
|
||||||
|
│ employing road-mobile, rail-mobile, and silo-based launchers. The │
|
||||||
|
│ road-mobile variant uses the Tian HTF5980 16×16 wheeled chassis. Silo │
|
||||||
|
│ construction has accelerated since 2021 with three new solid-fuel ICBM silo │
|
||||||
|
│ fields identified in northern China. [Sources: MDAA, CSIS Missile Threat, │
|
||||||
|
│ FAS] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Alert Posture and Launch Doctrine**: The PLARF is working to implement a │
|
||||||
|
│ launch-on-warning (LOW) posture. Brigades now strive to keep at least part │
|
||||||
|
│ of their force in a higher state of readiness, representing a significant │
|
||||||
|
│ shift from China's historically relaxed alert posture where warheads were │
|
||||||
|
│ stored separately from missiles. [Sources: Air University/PLARF Nuclear │
|
||||||
|
│ Warhead Management, NDU] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Warhead Management**: Historically, Chinese ICBMs stored warheads │
|
||||||
|
│ separately from missiles ('de-mated'). The shift toward LOW requires │
|
||||||
|
│ warheads to be mated or at least rapidly mateable to delivery systems. As of │
|
||||||
|
│ the 2025 FAS Nuclear Notebook, China possesses approximately 600 warheads, │
|
||||||
|
│ with DF-41 launchers armed with either a single ~1 MT warhead or up to 10 │
|
||||||
|
│ MIRV warheads (20/90/150 KT yield variants). [Sources: FAS 2025, MDAA] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Force Structure**: As of 2020-2023, two brigades were confirmed operating │
|
||||||
|
│ DF-41 when it appeared in the 2019 parade. The CNS 2023 Order of Battle │
|
||||||
|
│ identifies Base 64 (Lanzhou HQ) Brigade 644 (Hanzhong) as a rumored DF-41 │
|
||||||
|
│ integration base. Additional brigades under Base 63 are suspected. [Sources: │
|
||||||
|
│ Bulletin PLARF Force Structure Table 2020, CNS OOB 2023] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Camouflage and Concealment**: Mobile DF-41 units employ camouflage netting │
|
||||||
|
│ and disperse into forests and tunnels during exercises, consistent with │
|
||||||
|
│ PLARF general doctrine of 'hiding and waiting.' [Sources: Al │
|
||||||
|
│ Arabiya/Facebook report] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **No-First-Use and Deterrence**: Chinese doctrine officially maintains a │
|
||||||
|
│ no-first-use (NFU) posture, with the DF-41 serving as a second-strike │
|
||||||
|
│ deterrent. However, the silo expansion and LOW posture shift have raised │
|
||||||
|
│ questions among analysts about whether NFU remains operationally intact. │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources: The Mandarin, FAS 2025] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Range and Target Coverage**: With a range of 12,000–15,000 km, DF-41 │
|
||||||
|
│ brigades based in central/northern China can target the entire continental │
|
||||||
|
│ United States, making them the primary strategic countervalue and │
|
||||||
|
│ counterforce deterrent against the US. [Sources: MDAA, CSIS Missile Threat] │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Dong Feng-41(CSS-X-20) │ The DF-41 has a range of │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.missiledefenseadv │ 12,000-15,000 km (able to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ocacy.org/missile-threat-and- │ target half to all of the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ proliferation/todays-missile- │ continental U.S.), can carry │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ threat/china/df-41/ │ multiple independently │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ targetable reentry vehicles │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (MIRVs), and is rail-or │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ road-mobile. The DF-41 is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ solid propelled and can carry │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ a payload of up to 2500 kg. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ DF-41 (Dong Feng-41 / │ The DF-41 (Dong Feng [East │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ CSS-X-20) | Missile Threat │ Wind]-41, CSS-20) is Chinese │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://missilethreat.csis.or │ road-mobile intercontinental │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ g/missile/df-41/ │ ballistic missile (ICBM). It │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ has an operational range of up │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to 15,000 km, making it │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ China's longest-range missile, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and is reportedly capable of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ loading multiple │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ independently-targeted │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ warheads (MIRV). │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ PLA Rocket Force Nuclear │ PLARF is working to implement │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Warhead Management - Air │ a launch-on-warning (LOW) │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ University │ posture, and brigades now │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.airuniversity.af. │ strive to keep at least part │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ edu/Portals/10/CASI/documents │ of their force in a state of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /Research/Infrastructure/2026 │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -03-09%20PLARF%20Nuclear%20Wa │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ rhead%20Management.pdf │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ IMPLICATIONS OF A PRC SHIFT │ The PLARF has adjusted its │ 0.87 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ TO A LAUNCH-ON-WARNING │ nuclear warhead storage and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://inss.ndu.edu/LinkClic │ handling practices and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ k.aspx?fileticket=kU27dwWHUvU │ training to support regular │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ %3D&portalid=82 │ alert status. A LOW posture, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ which requires ICBM units │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Chinese nuclear weapons, 2025 │ China has continued to develop │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ - Federation of American │ its three new missile silo │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Scientists │ fields for solid-fuel │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://fas.org/wp-content/up │ intercontinental ballistic │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ loads/2025/03/Chinese-nuclear │ missiles (ICBMs)...has been │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -weapons-2025.pdf │ developing new variants of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ICBMs and advanced strategic │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ delivery systems, and has │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ likely produced excess │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ warheads for these systems │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ once they are deployed. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ New Missile Silo And DF-41 │ The photos also show that 18 │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Launchers Seen In Chinese │ road-mobile launchers of the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Nuclear Missile Training Area │ long-awaited DF-41 ICBM were │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ - FAS │ training in the area in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://fas.org/publication/c │ April-May 2019 together with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hina-silo-df41/ │ launchers for the DF-31AG │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ICBM, possibly the DF-5B ICBM, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the DF-26 IRBM, and the DF-21 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ MRBM. Altogether, more than 72 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ missile launchers can be seen │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ operating together. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Table 2: PLARF Missile Force │ 644 Brigade Hanzhong (33.1321, │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Structure 2020 │ 106.9361) (DF-41) (Yes) │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://thebulletin.org/wp-co │ Rumored DF-41 integration │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ntent/uploads/2020/12/Kristen │ base. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sen-Korda_Nov-Dec-China-Table │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2_final.pdf │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Understanding the People's │ The DF-41 will likely replace │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Liberation Army Rocket Force │ older ICBMs in the Chinese │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.armyupress.army.m │ arsenal and will carry either │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ il/Journals/Military-Review/E │ a single megaton warhead or up │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nglish-Edition-Archives/China │ to ten MIRV smaller warheads. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -Reader-Special-Edition-Septe │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mber-2021/Mihal-PLA-Rocket-Fo │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ rce/ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ China's new missile silos │ The discovery by researchers │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (hundreds of them) │ at the James Martin Center for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.themandarin.com.a │ Nonproliferation Studies in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ u/166656-china-military-watch │ California that 119 missile │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -2/ │ silos were being built in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ desert near the city of Yumen │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in the Gansu region suggested │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ a rapid expansion of China's │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ nuclear weapons capabilities. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ China is building more │ The new underground silos are │ 0.84 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ underground silos for its │ located in the centre of the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ballistic missiles | SCMP │ Jilantai training base, within │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.scmp.com/news/chi │ a total area of 200 sq km, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ na/military/article/3125699/c │ are spaced between 2.2km and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ hina-building-more-undergroun │ 4.4km apart so that no two of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ d-silos-its-ballistic-missile │ them can be destroyed in a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s │ single nuclear attack. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 11 │ China's Mobile ICBM Brigades: │ The PLARF is currently │ 0.75 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ The DF-31 and DF-41 │ modernizing its │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.aboyandhis.blog/p │ intercontinental ballistic │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ost/china-s-mobile-icbm-briga │ missile forces with two new │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ des-the-df-31-and-df-41 │ mobile systems: the new DF-41 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ballistic missile and the new │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ DF-31AG │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ transporter-erector-launcher.. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ .The DF-41 is thought to be │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ out of development but has not │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ yet moved into Operational │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Testing and Evaluation (OT&E). │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 12 │ The 2024 DOD China Military │ Other variables are how many │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Power Report - FAS │ warheads are assigned to the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://fas.org/publication/t │ DF-26 IRBM launchers (probably │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ he-2024-dod-china-military-po │ not all of them), how many of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ wer-report/ │ the six SSBNs have been │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ upgraded to the JL-3 SLBM and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ whether it is assigned │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ multiple warheads, and how │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ many DF-41 ICBM launchers are │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ operational and how many │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ warheads each missile is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ assigned. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Exact number of │ Open sources confirm at │
|
||||||
|
│ │ operational DF-41 │ least two brigades as of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ brigades and launchers │ 2019 parade, with │
|
||||||
|
│ │ as of 2025 │ additional brigades │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ suspected, but no │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ authoritative public │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ count of currently │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ operational DF-41 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ launchers exists as of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2025. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Specific warhead mating │ Detailed operational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ protocols and │ warhead handling │
|
||||||
|
│ │ pre-delegation authority │ procedures, command │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for DF-41 brigades │ authority thresholds, and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pre-delegation rules for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ DF-41 brigades are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ classified and not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available in open │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Confirmed rail-mobile │ Multiple sources indicate │
|
||||||
|
│ │ DF-41 operational │ rail-mobile DF-41 was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ deployment │ tested and considered, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ but no sources confirm it │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ has been operationally │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ deployed in that basing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mode as of 2025. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ access_denied │ Full CNS 2023 Order of │ The PDF was identified │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Battle PDF content on │ but binary content could │
|
||||||
|
│ │ DF-41 brigades │ not be fully parsed to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ extract specific DF-41 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ brigade details from the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2023 CNS Order of Battle. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ database │ PLARF DF-41 │ The 2023 CNS │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ brigade order of │ Order of Battle │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ battle 2024 2025 │ is the most │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ silo field │ recent structured │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ deployment │ OOB but may be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ outdated given │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ rapid 2024-2025 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ expansion. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ China DF-41 │ The LOW posture │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ launch on warning │ shift is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ posture warhead │ documented but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mating 2024 2025 │ the degree to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ which DF-41 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ brigades │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ specifically have │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ implemented it │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ versus older │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ systems is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ unclear. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ China nuclear no │ The silo │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ first use │ expansion and LOW │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ doctrine DF-41 │ posture raise │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ silo expansion │ academic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ strategic │ questions about │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ stability │ NFU credibility │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ that may be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ addressed in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ recent strategic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ studies │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ literature. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradiction │ null │ DF-41 rail-mobile │ MDAA lists │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ deployment status │ rail-mobile as an │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ operational vs │ operational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ testing │ basing mode, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ while FAS and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ CSIS sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ suggest it │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ remains in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ testing/considera │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ tion phase. This │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ contradiction │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ should be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ investigated. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Has China fully transitioned to │ Air University and NDU sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ a launch-on-warning posture for │ confirm PLARF is 'working to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ DF-41 brigades, or is this │ implement' LOW, but the degree │
|
||||||
|
│ │ still aspirational? │ of actual implementation vs. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ doctrinal aspiration is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ambiguous. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How many DF-41 silos in the │ Reuters December 2025 report │
|
||||||
|
│ │ three new silo fields │ indicates 100+ solid-fuel ICBMs │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (Yumen/Gansu, Hami/Xinjiang, │ loaded in silo fields; FAS 2025 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Ordos/Inner Mongolia) are now │ notes continued silo │
|
||||||
|
│ │ loaded with missiles as of │ development. The DF-41 vs DF-31 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2025? │ breakdown in these silos is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ unclear. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ What is the command-and-control │ LOW posture implies faster │
|
||||||
|
│ │ structure for DF-41 brigades — │ decision timelines, raising │
|
||||||
|
│ │ do brigade commanders have any │ questions about whether China │
|
||||||
|
│ │ pre-delegated launch authority? │ has moved toward any degree of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pre-delegation, which would be │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ a major doctrinal shift. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Has the DF-41 rail-mobile │ Rail-mobile tests were reported │
|
||||||
|
│ │ variant been operationally │ in December 2015, and the 2019 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ deployed with any PLARF │ Pentagon report noted China │
|
||||||
|
│ │ brigade? │ 'appears to be considering' │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ rail-mobile basing, but no │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ confirmed operational │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ deployment has been identified. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the specific MIRV │ FAS 2025 notes uncertainty │
|
||||||
|
│ │ loading assignment doctrine for │ about how many warheads each │
|
||||||
|
│ │ operational DF-41 missiles — │ DF-41 is assigned in practice, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ are they typically deployed │ which significantly affects │
|
||||||
|
│ │ with maximum warhead loads or │ strategic stability │
|
||||||
|
│ │ reduced loads? │ calculations. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.72 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 12 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: high │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: True │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.75 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 62857 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 132.16s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: b3d00938-5309-4faa-a20d-97a8511bb8f9
|
||||||
272
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/18-scope.log
Normal file
272
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/18-scope.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,272 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: What internal compensation bands does Goldman Sachs use for VPs in
|
||||||
|
2026?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What internal compensation bands does Goldman Sachs use for VPs in 2026?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:05.792037Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:06.820624Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:06.829930Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What internal compensation bands does Goldman Sachs use for VPs in 2026?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:06.876139Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "What internal compensation bands does Goldman Sachs use for VPs in 2026?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:06.876453Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:06.876542Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1108, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:14.969587Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 12, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 5772, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:26.767509Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 17, "decision": "Starting iteration 4/5", "tokens_so_far": 15029, "event": "iteration_start", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:32.149418Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 22, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 5: 26452/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:41.927200Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 23, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 31, "iterations_run": 4, "tokens_used": 26452, "event": "synthesis_start", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:15:41.927359Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 24, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 65550, "event": "synthesis_complete", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:16:45.258119Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 42, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.62, "citation_count": 10, "gap_count": 4, "discovery_count": 3, "total_duration_sec": 102.914, "event": "complete", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:16:45.259163Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.62, "citations": 10, "gaps": 4, "discovery_events": 3, "tokens_used": 51829, "iterations_run": 4, "wall_time_sec": 98.38188624382019, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:16:45.259280Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "researcher": "web", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:16:45.259714Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:16:45.264223Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52", "confidence": 0.62, "citations": 10, "tokens_used": 51829, "wall_time_sec": 98.38188624382019, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:16:45.493130Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Goldman Sachs does not publicly disclose formal internal compensation bands │
|
||||||
|
│ for VPs. Based on available evidence, the VP title at Goldman Sachs is a │
|
||||||
|
│ single, wide-band level (there are no officially published sub-bands like │
|
||||||
|
│ VP1/VP2/VP3 at Goldman, unlike some other banks). Compensation varies │
|
||||||
|
│ enormously depending on division (front office vs. middle/back office) and │
|
||||||
|
│ seniority within the band. Key data points for 2026: (1) Glassdoor reports a │
|
||||||
|
│ typical total pay range of $213,109–$391,379 (25th–75th percentile) across │
|
||||||
|
│ ~4,695 salary submissions, covering all VP roles firm-wide. (2) Levels.fyi │
|
||||||
|
│ reports a median total VP compensation of $144K, which likely skews toward │
|
||||||
|
│ tech/engineering roles. (3) 6figr reports an average of $297K (range │
|
||||||
|
│ $265K–$501K, top 10% up to $514K) based on 67 profiles. (4) For front-office │
|
||||||
|
│ Investment Banking VPs specifically, Glassdoor reports a much higher range │
|
||||||
|
│ of $480,547–$888,585 (25th–75th percentile) based on 14 salaries. (5) │
|
||||||
|
│ Industry benchmarks from Mergers & Inquisitions (2026 update) place │
|
||||||
|
│ front-office IB VP base salary at $250–$300K with total compensation of │
|
||||||
|
│ $525–$800K for NY-based roles. (6) Indeed reports an average of ~$145,324, │
|
||||||
|
│ consistent with a broad mix of roles. Community sources (Fishbowl) confirm │
|
||||||
|
│ the VP band is 'very wide' with no official internal sub-levels at Goldman; │
|
||||||
|
│ pay differentiation happens informally by group, skillset, and front vs. │
|
||||||
|
│ back office status. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Total salary range for │ The typical pay range is │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Goldman Sachs Vice President │ between $213,109 (25th │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ - Glassdoor │ percentile) and $391,379 (75th │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.glassdoor.com/Sal │ percentile) annually. This is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ary/Goldman-Sachs-Vice-Presid │ based on 4,695 salaries │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ent-Salaries-E2800_D_KO14,28. │ submitted by Goldman Sachs │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ htm │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Total salary range for │ The typical pay range is │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Goldman Sachs Vice President │ between $220,674 (25th │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ - Glassdoor │ percentile) and $411,924 (75th │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.glassdoor.com/Sal │ percentile) annually. This is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ary/Goldman-Sachs-V-P-Salarie │ based on 4,695 salaries │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s-E2800_D_KO14,17.htm │ submitted by Goldman Sachs │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ Goldman Sachs Vice President │ The median Vice President │ 0.75 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Salary | $110K-$144K+ | │ compensation in United States │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Levels.fyi │ package at Goldman Sachs │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.levels.fyi/compan │ totals $144K per year. View │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ies/goldman-sachs/salaries/vi │ the base salary, stock, and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ce-president │ bonus breakdowns for Goldman │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Sachs's total compensation │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ packages. Last updated: │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 4/6/2026 │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Goldman Sachs Vice President │ Employees at Goldman Sachs as │ 0.70 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Vp Salaries 2026 | │ Vice President Vp earn an │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ $265k-$514k │ average of $297k, mostly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://6figr.com/us/salary/g │ ranging from $265k per year to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oldman-sachs--vice-president- │ $501k per year based on 67 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vp │ profiles. The top 10% │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ Goldman Sachs Investment │ The typical pay range is │ 0.65 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Banking Vice President ... │ between $480,547 (25th │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.glassdoor.com/Sal │ percentile) and $888,585 (75th │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ary/Goldman-Sachs-Investment- │ percentile) annually. This is │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Banking-Vice-President-Salari │ based on 14 salaries submitted │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ es-E2800_D_KO14,47.htm │ by Goldman Sachs │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Investment Banker Salary and │ Vice President (VP) | 28-40 | │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Bonus Report: 2026 Update │ $250-$300K | $525-$800K | 3-4 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://mergersandinquisition │ years │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s.com/investment-banker-salar │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ y/ │ NOTE: All numbers are pre-tax │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ for New York-based │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ front-office roles and include │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ base salaries and year-end │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ bonuses but not │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ signing/relocation bonuses, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ stub bonuses, benefits, etc. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ Vice President yearly │ Average Goldman Sachs Vice │ 0.70 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ salaries in the United States │ President yearly pay in the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ at Goldman Sachs │ United States is approximately │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.indeed.com/cmp/Go │ $145,324, which is 9% below │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ldman-Sachs/salaries/Vice-Pre │ the national average. Salary │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sident │ estimated from │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Are there internal levels/ │ Goldman VP band is very wide. │ 0.72 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ bands within the VP tit... | │ Promoted from associate and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Fishbowl │ Next step md is difficult to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.fishbowlapp.com/p │ get. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ost/are-there-internal-levels │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -bands-within-the-vp-title-at │ Yes, banks have different │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -goldman-sachs-fwiw-this-is-f │ bands depending on skillset, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ or-a-nonbusiness-internal-str │ group within the firm, front │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ategy-kind │ office vs back office, etc │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Not Goldman though. It's just │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ VP │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ VP of FP&A at Goldman Sachs │ FP&A is middle office at │ 0.65 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ salary : r/FPandA - Reddit │ banks, they won't make │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.reddit.com/r/FPan │ anywhere near $400k at VP │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dA/comments/1dgguz5/vp_of_fpa │ level. Front office VP │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ _at_goldman_sachs_salary/ │ positions will all clear over │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ $400k in a place │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ Goldman Sachs Vp Salaries │ 15 to 15 yrs. Base. $179k. │ 0.65 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2026 | $208k-$586k - │ Stocks / Yr. $21k. Bonus. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 6figr.com │ $120k. Total Salary. $318k. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://6figr.com/us/salary/g │ Goldman Sachs Vp salary levels │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oldman-sachs--vp │ ranges from Vice President │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (Accountant) upto │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Official internal Goldman │ Goldman Sachs does not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Sachs VP compensation │ publicly publish its │
|
||||||
|
│ │ bands │ internal compensation │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ bands or grade │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ structures. No │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ authoritative internal │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ HR documentation was │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ found. All data is from │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ third-party crowdsourced │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ salary platforms. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ VP sub-band breakdown │ Community sources │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (VP1/VP2/VP3 equivalents) │ explicitly state Goldman │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ uses a single 'VP' title │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ with no formal │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sub-levels, unlike some │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ peers. No granular │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sub-band salary data │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ exists in any source │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reviewed. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ scope_exceeded │ Non-US VP compensation │ Some sources (e.g., │
|
||||||
|
│ │ bands │ AmbitionBox) reference │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ India-based VP salaries │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (₹49.4L–₹54.6L), but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ comprehensive │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ international band data │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ was not gathered. The │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ question context appears │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ US-focused. │
|
||||||
|
├───────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ contradictory_sources │ Levels.fyi median │ Levels.fyi reports a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ discrepancy │ median of $144K while │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Glassdoor and 6figr │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ report $213K–$411K │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ ranges. Levels.fyi │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ likely captures │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ engineering/tech VPs who │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ have different │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ compensation structures │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and lower base pay than │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ finance VPs. │
|
||||||
|
└───────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ contradiction │ database │ Goldman Sachs VP │ Large discrepancy │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ total │ between │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ compensation by │ Levels.fyi ($144K │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ division 2025 │ median) and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2026 │ Glassdoor │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ ($213K–$391K │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ range) suggests │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ the VP population │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ is heterogeneous │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ across tech and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ finance │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ functions; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ further │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ segmentation by │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ division would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ resolve this. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ Goldman Sachs │ Understanding how │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ internal grade │ Goldman's VP band │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ structure VP │ maps to peer │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Director MD 2026 │ banks' grade │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ systems would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ clarify the wide │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ compensation │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ range observed. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ Goldman Sachs │ Mergers & │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2025 bonus pool │ Inquisitions │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ VP payout by │ notes senior │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ division │ bankers (VPs+) │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ received │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ disproportionate │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ 2025 bonus │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ increases; │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ division-level │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ data would │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ sharpen the band │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ picture. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Does Goldman Sachs use any │ Fishbowl community posts │
|
||||||
|
│ │ informal internal seniority │ confirm the VP band is wide and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ designations within the VP │ pay varies significantly, but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ title (e.g., junior VP vs. │ it is unclear whether informal │
|
||||||
|
│ │ senior VP) that affect │ tracking of seniority within │
|
||||||
|
│ │ compensation but are not │ the band drives structured pay │
|
||||||
|
│ │ publicly disclosed? │ steps. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How did 2025 year-end bonuses │ Mergers & Inquisitions notes │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for Goldman Sachs VPs compare │ that VPs and Directors saw │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to the prior year, and were │ 10–15% total comp increases in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ front-office VPs │ 2025, but Goldman-specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ disproportionate beneficiaries? │ figures were not isolated. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Why does Levels.fyi report a │ The discrepancy likely reflects │
|
||||||
|
│ │ $144K median for Goldman Sachs │ different user populations │
|
||||||
|
│ │ VPs when Glassdoor and 6figr │ (tech-focused on Levels.fyi vs. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ report ranges starting at │ finance-focused on │
|
||||||
|
│ │ $213K–$265K? │ Glassdoor/6figr), but this has │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ not been confirmed. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What is the typical │ Fishbowl notes the VP band is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ time-in-grade for a Goldman │ wide and the step to MD is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Sachs VP before promotion to │ difficult; Mergers & │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Managing Director, and does │ Inquisitions gives a 3–4 year │
|
||||||
|
│ │ longer tenure correlate with │ promotion window for VPs across │
|
||||||
|
│ │ meaningfully higher within-band │ large banks. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ pay? │ │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.62 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 8 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: medium │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: True │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.55 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 51829 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 4 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 98.38s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: 716e548a-ceaf-4d18-8b47-ac35e3460b52
|
||||||
343
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/19-scope.log
Normal file
343
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/19-scope.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,343 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: How does Renaissance Technologies Medallion Fund actually generate
|
||||||
|
alpha?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
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|
||||||
|
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|
||||||
|
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|
||||||
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||||||
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||||||
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|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Renaissance Technologies' Medallion Fund generates alpha through several │
|
||||||
|
│ reinforcing mechanisms, all grounded in quantitative and data-driven methods │
|
||||||
|
│ rather than traditional financial intuition: │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 1. **Statistical Arbitrage & Pattern Recognition**: The fund identifies │
|
||||||
|
│ subtle, recurring market inefficiencies and pricing anomalies by analyzing │
|
||||||
|
│ vast amounts of historical and real-time data. It profits from small │
|
||||||
|
│ mispricings across many trades rather than large directional bets. [Sources │
|
||||||
|
│ 3, 6, 8] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 2. **Advanced Mathematical & Quantitative Models**: Renaissance employs │
|
||||||
|
│ sophisticated statistical models, hidden Markov models (used as early as │
|
||||||
|
│ 1983), and continuously refined algorithms to predict short-term price │
|
||||||
|
│ movements. The firm hired mathematicians, physicists, and computer │
|
||||||
|
│ scientists—not traditional Wall Street traders—to build these models. │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 9, 16, 21, 23] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 3. **Machine Learning & AI Integration**: Medallion continuously refines its │
|
||||||
|
│ models using machine learning, allowing them to adapt to changing market │
|
||||||
|
│ conditions and discover non-obvious patterns. [Sources 6, 8] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 4. **High-Frequency, Fully Automated Trading**: The fund executes │
|
||||||
|
│ 150,000–300,000 trades daily through fully automated systems, eliminating │
|
||||||
|
│ emotional bias and exploiting fleeting inefficiencies at scale. [Source 8] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 5. **Market-Neutral & Diversified Strategies**: By balancing long and short │
|
||||||
|
│ positions across many asset classes (equities, futures, options, currencies) │
|
||||||
|
│ and geographies, the fund reduces exposure to broad market moves. This is │
|
||||||
|
│ evidenced by the fund returning +74.6% in 2008 when markets crashed. │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 6, 16] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 6. **Leverage & Risk Management via Kelly Criterion**: Medallion uses │
|
||||||
|
│ significant leverage combined with disciplined risk management techniques, │
|
||||||
|
│ including the Kelly Criterion, to size positions optimally and control │
|
||||||
|
│ drawdown. [Sources 6, 8] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 7. **Extreme Secrecy & Employee-Only Structure**: The fund has been closed │
|
||||||
|
│ to outside investors since 1993, aligning incentives exclusively with │
|
||||||
|
│ employees and partners. This exclusivity prevents strategy dilution and │
|
||||||
|
│ protects proprietary edge. [Sources 5, 6, 12] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 8. **Massive Data Collection & Cleaning**: Renaissance amasses and │
|
||||||
|
│ meticulously cleans enormous datasets of historical price data, economic │
|
||||||
|
│ indicators, and alternative data sources as the raw material for model │
|
||||||
|
│ building. [Sources 15, 21] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ 9. **Collaborative, Academic Culture**: Simons fostered an open, peer-driven │
|
||||||
|
│ environment where ideas were freely shared among top-tier scientists, │
|
||||||
|
│ accelerating model refinement and discovery. [Sources 16, 21] │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ The cumulative result: average annual returns of 66% before fees and 39% │
|
||||||
|
│ after fees from 1988 to 2018—the best sustained track record in investment │
|
||||||
|
│ history. A $100 investment in 1988 would have grown to approximately $398.7 │
|
||||||
|
│ million by 2018, versus $1,815 for the S&P 500 over the same period. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ Renaissance Technologies: The │ Between 1988 and 2018, │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ $100 Billion Built on │ Renaissance Technologies' │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Statistical Arbitrage │ Medallion Fund generated │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://navnoorbawa.substack. │ average annual returns of 66% │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ com/p/renaissance-technologie │ before fees and 39% after fees │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s-the-100 │ — the most successful track │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ record in investing history. A │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ $100 investment in 1988 would │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ have grown to approximately │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ $398.7 million by 2018. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ Jim Simons Trading Strategy │ Fully automated systems │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Explained: Inside Renaissance │ executed 150,000–300,000 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Technologies │ trades daily, eliminating │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.quantvps.com/blog │ emotional biases. Techniques │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /jim-simons-trading-strategy │ like the Kelly Criterion and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ balanced portfolios helped │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ control risk and maintain │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ consistent returns. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ The Curious Case of Medallion │ The fund employs sophisticated │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Fund: Renaissance │ statistical and mathematical │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Technologies' Hedge Fund │ models to identify and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Success │ capitalize on market │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.schoolofhedge.com │ inefficiencies. Medallion │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /pages/the-curious-case-of-me │ integrates machine learning │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dallion-fund │ and artificial intelligence to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ refine its models continually, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ adapting to changing market │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ conditions. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ Decoding the Medallion Fund │ The Medallion Fund boasts an │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Returns: What We Know About │ unprecedented average annual │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Its Annual Performance │ return of 66% before fees over │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.quantifiedstrateg │ 30 years, achieving a net │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ies.com/medallion-fund-return │ return of 39% after fees. The │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s/ │ Medallion Fund has been closed │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to outside investors since │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 1993 and is only available to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ current and past employees and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ their families. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ James Simons (Renaissance │ In 1983 he was using Hidden │ 0.85 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Technologies Corp.) and his │ Markov Models. Now he employs │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ model - Quantitative Finance │ 100+ PhDs, therefore I expect │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Stack Exchange │ he will have 50+ strategies │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://quant.stackexchange.c │ using 200+ predictors. And set │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ om/questions/30056/james-simo │ up as a production line, from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ns-renaissance-technologies-c │ the teams importing and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ orp-and-his-model │ cleaning data, down to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ execution of trades. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ Simons' Strategies: │ Market-Neutral Strategies: │ 0.91 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Renaissance Trading Unpacked │ Balancing long and short │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ - LuxAlgo │ positions reduces risk. Unique │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.luxalgo.com/blog/ │ Hiring: Scientists and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ simons-strategies-renaissance │ mathematicians, not Wall │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -trading-unpacked/ │ Street veterans, build their │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ trading models. Even during │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ crashes like 2008, Medallion │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ outperformed with a 74.6% │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ return. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ The Man Who Solved the Market │ Renaissance's success was │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ by Gregory Zuckerman - │ built on amassing and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Summary & Notes │ meticulously cleaning vast │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://bagerbach.com/books/t │ amounts of historical price │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ he-man-who-solved-the-market/ │ data, then using it to model │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and predict market behavior. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ They treated investing like a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ scientific problem, forming │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ hypotheses, testing them │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ rigorously, and iterating │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ constantly. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ Cracking the Code: Inside the │ Medallion began as an │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Medallion Fund and Jim │ experiment in pattern │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Simons' Secretive Empire │ recognition. Over time, it │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://medium.com/@trading.d │ evolved into a fully │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ude/cracking-the-code-inside- │ automated, high-frequency, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ the-medallion-fund-and-jim-si │ multi-strategy quant │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mons-secretive-empire-b9af084 │ powerhouse. It traded │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 15b4f │ everything from equities to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ futures. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Renaissance Technologies and │ Renaissance Technologies, │ 0.92 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ The Medallion Fund │ often just referred to as │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://quartr.com/insights/e │ RenTec, is reputed as the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ dge/renaissance-technologies- │ highest-performing investment │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and-the-medallion-fund │ firms ever, with its Medallion │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Fund having returned a net │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 90,129x to investors between │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ the years 1988-2022 leveraging │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ a quantitative investment │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ approach. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 10 │ Jim Simons – The Man Who │ Simons decided to use a purely │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Solved the Market - Build │ systematic approach to avoid │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Alpha │ emotional rollercoasters and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.buildalpha.com/ji │ avoid common trading biases │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ m-simons-the-man-who-solved-t │ that trip up most traders. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ he-market/ │ Simons staffed the new fund, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Renaissance Technologies, with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mathematicians, computer │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ scientists, and physicists to │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ pioneer. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ access_denied │ Specific algorithmic │ Renaissance Technologies │
|
||||||
|
│ │ details and signal types │ maintains extreme secrecy │
|
||||||
|
│ │ used by the Medallion Fund │ around its specific trading │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ signals, factor exposures, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and model architecture. No │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ public source has ever │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ confirmed the exact │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ mathematical formulas, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ specific predictors, or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ strategy details. All │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence is from secondary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources and informed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ inference. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Post-2018 performance data │ Most verified return data │
|
||||||
|
│ │ for the Medallion Fund │ covers 1988-2018. Some │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources reference │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ performance through 2022 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ but with less granular │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ annual data. The fund does │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ not file public performance │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reports. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Specific leverage ratios │ While sources note that │
|
||||||
|
│ │ used by the Medallion Fund │ high leverage is a │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ component of alpha │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ generation, specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ leverage multiples are not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ publicly disclosed and were │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ not found in the gathered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Fee structure and its exact │ Sources confirm the fund │
|
||||||
|
│ │ impact on net returns over │ charges approximately 5% │
|
||||||
|
│ │ time │ management and 44% │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ performance fees │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (historically), but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ detailed year-by-year │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ impact analysis was not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ found in the gathered │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ evidence. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ statistical │ Simons used │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ arbitrage hidden │ Hidden Markov │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Markov models │ Models in 1983. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ financial markets │ Academic papers │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ quantitative │ on HMMs in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ trading │ finance could │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ illuminate the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ mathematical │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ foundation of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ early Medallion │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ strategies. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ Kelly Criterion │ The Kelly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ optimal position │ Criterion is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sizing hedge fund │ cited as a key │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ leverage │ risk management │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ quantitative │ tool; academic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ trading │ literature could │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ clarify how it │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ specifically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ contributes to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ alpha │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ sustainability. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ new_source │ database │ Renaissance │ SEC 13F filings │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Technologies SEC │ for Renaissance's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 13F filings RIEF │ public-facing │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ RIDA │ funds (RIEF, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ institutional │ RIDA) could │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ holdings │ provide insight │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ into equity │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ selection │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ methodology, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ though not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ Medallion │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ directly. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ null │ Gregory Zuckerman │ The book by │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ The Man Who │ Zuckerman is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Solved the Market │ cited as the most │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ primary source │ authoritative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ analysis │ public account of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ Renaissance's │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ methods; a deeper │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ review could │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ yield more │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ mechanism │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ details. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ How has the Medallion Fund │ Multiple sources confirm the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ maintained its edge as markets │ strategy has worked for 30+ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ have become more efficient and │ years, but with algorithmic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ other quant funds have adopted │ trading now comprising 60-73% │
|
||||||
|
│ │ similar approaches? │ of U.S. equity trades, the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ persistence of edge is │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ theoretically challenging. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ What is the role of capacity │ The fund is closed to outside │
|
||||||
|
│ │ constraints in limiting │ investors and capped in size, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Medallion's AUM, and how does │ suggesting strategy returns │
|
||||||
|
│ │ the fund's small size (~$10B) │ diminish at scale. This │
|
||||||
|
│ │ contribute to its returns? │ capacity question is central to │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ understanding whether the alpha │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ is truly replicable. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ To what extent does Medallion's │ Sources describe both │
|
||||||
|
│ │ alpha come from market │ high-frequency automated │
|
||||||
|
│ │ microstructure exploitation │ trading and statistical │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (e.g., short-term mean │ arbitrage, but the precise time │
|
||||||
|
│ │ reversion) vs. longer-horizon │ horizon distribution of trades │
|
||||||
|
│ │ factor exposures? │ is unknown publicly. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How has Medallion's strategy │ Jim Simons passed away in May │
|
||||||
|
│ │ evolved since Jim Simons' │ 2024. The sustainability of the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ retirement from day-to-day │ fund's culture and edge under │
|
||||||
|
│ │ management and his death in May │ new leadership is an open │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 2024? │ question. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ What specific alternative data │ Sources mention 'alternative │
|
||||||
|
│ │ sources (beyond price/volume) │ data sources' as inputs but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ does Renaissance use as inputs │ provide no specifics, leaving │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to its models? │ this dimension of the alpha │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ generation process unresolved. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 10 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: medium │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.75 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 43096 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 98.53s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: b7cd9d50-3eec-4eca-8db0-a580722c2b19
|
||||||
325
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/20-scope.log
Normal file
325
docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/20-scope.log
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,325 @@
|
||||||
|
Researching: What are the precise materials and tolerances in TSMC's 2nm
|
||||||
|
process?
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What are the precise materials and tolerances in TSMC's 2nm process?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": null, "token_budget": null, "event": "ask_started", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:26.198498Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"transport": "stdio", "server": "marchwarden-web-researcher", "event": "mcp_server_starting", "logger": "marchwarden.mcp", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:26.963097Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type CallToolRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:26.972484Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"question": "What are the precise materials and tolerances in TSMC's 2nm process?", "depth": "balanced", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "model_id": "claude-sonnet-4-6", "event": "research_started", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:27.004492Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 1, "decision": "Beginning research: depth=balanced", "question": "What are the precise materials and tolerances in TSMC's 2nm process?", "context": "", "max_iterations": 5, "token_budget": 20000, "event": "start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:27.004812Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 2, "decision": "Starting iteration 1/5", "tokens_so_far": 0, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:27.004904Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 7, "decision": "Starting iteration 2/5", "tokens_so_far": 1158, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:40.769568Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 14, "decision": "Starting iteration 3/5", "tokens_so_far": 11802, "event": "iteration_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:47.013233Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 19, "decision": "Token budget reached before iteration 4: 30249/20000", "event": "budget_exhausted", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:57.139804Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 20, "decision": "Beginning synthesis of gathered evidence", "evidence_count": 29, "iterations_run": 3, "tokens_used": 30249, "event": "synthesis_start", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:18:57.139984Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 21, "decision": "Parsed synthesis JSON successfully", "duration_ms": 77777, "event": "synthesis_complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:20:12.633197Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"step": 40, "decision": "Research complete", "confidence": 0.42, "citation_count": 9, "gap_count": 5, "discovery_count": 4, "total_duration_sec": 109.056, "event": "complete", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.trace", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:20:12.634189Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"confidence": 0.42, "citations": 9, "gaps": 5, "discovery_events": 4, "tokens_used": 62620, "iterations_run": 3, "wall_time_sec": 105.62861347198486, "budget_exhausted": true, "event": "research_completed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:20:12.634324Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"error": "[Errno 13] Permission denied: '/home/micro/.marchwarden/costs.jsonl'", "event": "cost_ledger_write_failed", "researcher": "web", "trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "logger": "marchwarden.researcher.web", "level": "warning", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:20:12.634698Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"event": "Processing request of type ListToolsRequest", "logger": "mcp.server.lowlevel.server", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:20:12.639617Z"}
|
||||||
|
{"trace_id": "a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7", "confidence": 0.42, "citations": 9, "tokens_used": 62620, "wall_time_sec": 105.62861347198486, "event": "ask_completed", "logger": "marchwarden.cli", "level": "info", "timestamp": "2026-04-09T02:20:12.967147Z"}
|
||||||
|
╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ TSMC's 2nm (N2) process node, which began volume production in Q4 2025, │
|
||||||
|
│ introduces several key technical advances, though precise proprietary │
|
||||||
|
│ materials specifications and sub-angstrom tolerances are not publicly │
|
||||||
|
│ disclosed. What is publicly known: │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Transistor Architecture:** N2 is TSMC's first node to use Gate-All-Around │
|
||||||
|
│ (GAA) nanosheet transistors, replacing the FinFET architecture used since │
|
||||||
|
│ 2011. The gate surrounds the silicon nanosheet channel on all sides, │
|
||||||
|
│ providing superior electrostatic control and reduced gate leakage compared │
|
||||||
|
│ to 3nm FinFETs [Sources 10, 13, 21]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Process Node Dimensions (IEEE IRDS):** The 2nm node class is projected to │
|
||||||
|
│ have a contacted gate pitch of ~45nm and a tightest metal pitch of ~20nm, │
|
||||||
|
│ per IEEE International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (2021 update) [Source │
|
||||||
|
│ 16]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Interconnects:** N2 features copper (Cu)-based redistribution layers │
|
||||||
|
│ (RDLs) with flat passivation and through-silicon vias (TSVs), co-optimized │
|
||||||
|
│ with 3DIC integration. Middle- and back-end-of-line (MEOL/BEOL) │
|
||||||
|
│ interconnects are included, with the densest SRAM macro ever reported at │
|
||||||
|
│ approximately 38 Mb/mm² [Sources 4, 21]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Performance Metrics (vs. N3E):** 24–35% power reduction OR 15% performance │
|
||||||
|
│ improvement at iso-voltage; >1.15x transistor density improvement over N3 │
|
||||||
|
│ [Sources 10, 18, 21]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Yield:** Initial yields reportedly ~70%, with some memory products │
|
||||||
|
│ exceeding 90%. A 6% yield improvement over baseline was reported in late │
|
||||||
|
│ 2024 [Sources 13, 14]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Applications:** Designed for AI, mobile, and HPC applications. Key │
|
||||||
|
│ customers include Apple (A20 chip for iPhone 18 Pro) and NVIDIA [Sources 8, │
|
||||||
|
│ 14]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Fab Locations:** Primary production in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, Taiwan; a │
|
||||||
|
│ Kaohsiung 2nm facility expansion ceremony was held March 31, 2025 [Source │
|
||||||
|
│ 6]. │
|
||||||
|
│ │
|
||||||
|
│ **Specific proprietary materials** (e.g., exact dielectric compositions, │
|
||||||
|
│ gate oxide materials, metal liner chemistries, doping concentrations, and │
|
||||||
|
│ nanometer-level tolerances on nanosheet thickness/width) are not publicly │
|
||||||
|
│ disclosed by TSMC and were not found in the available evidence. │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
Citations
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ 1 │ TSMC shares deep-dive details │ The new production node │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ about its cutting edge 2nm │ promises a 24 to 35% power │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ process node at IEDM 2024 — │ reduction or 15% performance │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 35 percent less power or 15 │ improvement at the same │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ percent more performance | │ voltage, and 1.15X higher │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Tom's Hardware │ transistor density than the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.tomshardware.com/ │ previous 3nm node. │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tech-industry/tsmc-shares-dee │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ p-dive-details-about-its-cutt │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ing-edge-2nm-process-node-at- │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ iedm-2024-35-percent-less-pow │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ er-or-15-percent-more-perform │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ance │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 2 │ IEDM 2024 – TSMC 2nm Process │ The paper states that the │ 0.95 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Disclosure - TechInsights │ process delivers a 30% power │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://library.techinsights. │ improvement or 15% performance │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ com/public/hg-asset/f32a0f17- │ gain and >1.15x density versus │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 5369-4c97-913c-b78d2ddd833b │ the previous 3nm node. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 3 │ The Shape of Tomorrow's │ The new N2 platform features │ 0.93 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Semiconductor Technology - │ GAA nanosheet transistors; │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Semiconductor Digest │ middle-/back-end-of-line │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.semiconductor-dig │ interconnects with the densest │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ est.com/the-shape-of-tomorrow │ SRAM macro ever reported │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ s-semiconductor-technology/ │ (~38Mb/mm2); and a holistic, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ system-technology co-optimized │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (STCO) architecture offering │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ great design flexibility. That │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ architecture includes a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ scalable copper-based │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ redistribution layer and a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ flat passivation layer (for │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ better performance, robust │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ CPI, and seamless 3D │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ integration); and │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ through-silicon vias, or TSVs. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 4 │ 2 nm process - Wikipedia │ According to the projections │ 0.90 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki │ contained in the 2021 update │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ /2_nm_process │ of the International Roadmap │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ for Devices and Systems │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ published by the Institute of │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Electrical and Electronics │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ Engineers (IEEE), a '2.1 nm │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ node range label' is expected │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ to have a contacted gate pitch │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ of 45 nanometers and a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tightest metal pitch of 20 │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ nanometers. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 5 │ TSMC Boosts 2 nm Yields by │ A key innovation in the N2 │ 0.88 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 6%, Passing Savings to │ process is the enhanced design │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Customers | TechPowerUp │ of its GAA nanosheet │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.techpowerup.com/3 │ transistors, which offers │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ 29435/tsmc-boosts-2-nm-yields │ improved electrostatic control │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ -by-6-passing-savings-to-cust │ and reduced gate leakage │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ omers │ compared to 3 nm FinFET │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ transistors, given that the │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ gate can be controlled from │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ all sides. This advancement │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ enables smaller high-density │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ transistors to maintain │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ reliable performance through │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ better threshold voltage │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tuning capabilities. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 6 │ TSMC 2nm, full details │ This 2nm platform technology │ 0.82 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ revealed-Electronics │ includes new Cu RDLs with flat │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Headlines-EEWORLD │ passivation and TSVs, │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://en.eeworld.com.cn/mp/ │ optimized holistically with │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Icbank/a391002.jspx │ 3DIC to enable system │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ integration. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 7 │ TSMC begins quietly volume │ TSMC has quietly revealed that │ 0.97 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ production of 2nm-class chips │ it had commenced volume │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ | Tom's Hardware │ production of chips using its │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://www.tomshardware.com/ │ N2 (2nm-class) fabrication │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tech-industry/semiconductors/ │ process... 'TSMC's 2nm (N2) │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ tsmc-begins-quietly-volume-pr │ technology has started volume │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oduction-of-2nm-class-chips-f │ production in 4Q25 as │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ irst-gaa-transistor-for-tsmc- │ planned.' │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ claims-up-to-15-percent-impro │ │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ vement-at-iso-power │ │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 8 │ TSMC's 2nm Yield Rates Surge │ Initial tsmc 2nm yield rates │ 0.75 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ as Mass Production Ramps Up │ are notably high, reportedly │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ in 2026 │ reaching around 70%. Some │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://heqingele.com/blog/ts │ reports even indicate yields │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ mc-2nm-yield-rates-mass-produ │ surpassing 90% for certain │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ction-status-2026/ │ memory products. │ │
|
||||||
|
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
|
||||||
|
│ 9 │ Unlocking the Future: TSMC's │ On March 31, 2025, TSMC held │ 0.80 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Bold Strategy for the 2nm │ an expansion ceremony for its │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ Revolution! │ 2nm production facility in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ https://tspasemiconductor.sub │ Kaohsiung, marking a │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ stack.com/p/unlocking-the-fut │ significant milestone in │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ ure-tsmcs-bold-strategy-cb2 │ Taiwan's semiconductor │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ advanced manufacturing │ │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ expansion. │ │
|
||||||
|
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
|
||||||
|
Gaps
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Exact dielectric and gate │ TSMC does not publicly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ oxide materials used in N2 │ disclose the specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ GAA nanosheet transistors │ high-k dielectric │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ materials, interfacial │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ layer compositions, or work │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ function metal chemistries │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ used in the N2 gate stack. │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ These are considered core │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ IP. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Nanosheet thickness and │ The precise nanometer-scale │
|
||||||
|
│ │ width tolerances │ dimensions and process │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tolerances (e.g., nanosheet │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ thickness variation, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ critical dimension │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ uniformity) for N2 GAA │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ nanosheets are not publicly │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ available. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Metal interconnect liner │ While Cu RDLs are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and barrier materials │ confirmed, the specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ barrier/liner materials │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ (e.g., whether ruthenium or │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ cobalt liners replace │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ TaN/Ta at this node) are │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ not disclosed in public │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ Doping profiles and implant │ Source/drain doping │
|
||||||
|
│ │ specifications │ concentrations, implant │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ energies, and anneal │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ conditions are proprietary │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and not published. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ source_not_found │ EUV lithography specifics │ The number of EUV exposures │
|
||||||
|
│ │ (number of EUV layers, │ per layer, overlay │
|
||||||
|
│ │ stochastic defect control │ tolerances, and specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ methods) │ stochastic control │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ approaches are not detailed │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in public TSMC disclosures. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Discovery Events
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
|
||||||
|
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ TSMC N2 nanosheet │ IEEE IEDM 2024 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ GAA transistor │ papers from TSMC │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ gate stack │ may contain more │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ materials high-k │ specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ dielectric IEDM │ materials details │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ 2024 │ in the full │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ published │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ proceedings not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ summarized in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ news articles. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ TSMC 2nm N2 │ TSMC patent │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ process patent │ filings related │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ filings nanosheet │ to N2 may reveal │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ gate-all-around │ specific │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ materials │ materials │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ choices, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ tolerances, and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ process │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ innovations that │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ are not in press │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ releases. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ arxiv │ gate-all-around │ Academic │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ nanosheet │ literature on GAA │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ transistor │ nanosheet │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ silicon channel │ fabrication may │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ thickness │ reveal typical │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ variation │ tolerance ranges │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ tolerance 2nm │ used at the 2nm │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ class node even │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ if not │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ TSMC-specific. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ related_research │ database │ TechInsights TSMC │ TechInsights │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ N2 teardown │ performs physical │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ materials │ reverse │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ analysis 2025 │ engineering of │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ chips and may │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ have detailed N2 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ materials │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ analysis │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ available through │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ their │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ subscription │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ │ service. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
Open Questions
|
||||||
|
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||||||
|
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||||||
|
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||||||
|
│ high │ What specific high-k dielectric │ Public sources confirm GAA │
|
||||||
|
│ │ and metal gate materials does │ nanosheet architecture but do │
|
||||||
|
│ │ TSMC use in the N2 GAA │ not specify gate dielectric │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nanosheet gate stack? │ (e.g., HfO2 variants) or work │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ function metal compositions │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ used to achieve threshold │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ voltage tuning. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ Has TSMC adopted ruthenium or │ At 20nm metal pitch, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ other alternative metals for │ traditional TaN/Ta/Cu stacks │
|
||||||
|
│ │ BEOL interconnect liners in N2 │ face resistance issues; Intel │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to reduce resistance at tight │ and others have explored Mo and │
|
||||||
|
│ │ pitches? │ Ru. TSMC's specific choice for │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ N2 BEOL is not disclosed in │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ public sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ high │ What is the actual silicon │ GAA nanosheet devices typically │
|
||||||
|
│ │ nanosheet thickness and stack │ stack 3-4 nanosheets; TSMC has │
|
||||||
|
│ │ count in TSMC's N2 process? │ not publicly specified │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ nanosheet dimensions or stack │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ count for N2. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ How does TSMC's N2 defect │ A LinkedIn post references │
|
||||||
|
│ │ density compare quantitatively │ Tom's Hardware reporting that │
|
||||||
|
│ │ to N3 at equivalent production │ TSMC disclosed N2 defect │
|
||||||
|
│ │ maturity? │ density is lower than N3 at the │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ same stage of development, but │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ specific numbers were not found │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ in the gathered sources. │
|
||||||
|
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||||||
|
│ medium │ Will TSMC's N2P (enhanced N2) │ Sources mention N2P is a 5% │
|
||||||
|
│ │ node incorporate backside power │ speed-enhanced version of N2 │
|
||||||
|
│ │ delivery network (BSPDN), and │ targeting qualification │
|
||||||
|
│ │ what materials/process changes │ completion; the SemiAnalysis │
|
||||||
|
│ │ does that entail? │ report discusses BSPDN as a key │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ innovation at 2nm class nodes, │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ and its material implications │
|
||||||
|
│ │ │ differ significantly. │
|
||||||
|
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||||||
|
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Overall: 0.42 │
|
||||||
|
│ Corroborating sources: 9 │
|
||||||
|
│ Source authority: medium │
|
||||||
|
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||||||
|
│ Query specificity match: 0.30 │
|
||||||
|
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||||||
|
│ Recency: current │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||||||
|
│ Tokens: 62620 │
|
||||||
|
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||||||
|
│ Wall time: 105.63s │
|
||||||
|
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||||||
|
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
trace_id: a4bb5b7a-61dd-446b-8c06-06c78de5fef7
|
||||||
225
scripts/calibration_collect.py
Normal file
225
scripts/calibration_collect.py
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,225 @@
|
||||||
|
"""scripts/calibration_collect.py
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
M3.3 Phase A: load every persisted ResearchResult under
|
||||||
|
~/.marchwarden/traces/*.result.json and emit a markdown rating worksheet
|
||||||
|
to docs/stress-tests/M3.3-rating-worksheet.md.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
The worksheet has one row per run with the model's self-reported confidence
|
||||||
|
and a blank `actual_rating` column for human review (Phase B). After rating
|
||||||
|
is complete, scripts/calibration_analyze.py (Phase C) will load the same
|
||||||
|
file with the rating column populated and compute calibration error.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Usage:
|
||||||
|
.venv/bin/python scripts/calibration_collect.py
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Optional env:
|
||||||
|
TRACE_DIR — override default ~/.marchwarden/traces
|
||||||
|
OUT — override default docs/stress-tests/M3.3-rating-worksheet.md
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from __future__ import annotations
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
import json
|
||||||
|
import os
|
||||||
|
import sys
|
||||||
|
from pathlib import Path
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent
|
||||||
|
sys.path.insert(0, str(REPO_ROOT))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
from researchers.web.models import ResearchResult # noqa: E402
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _load_results(trace_dir: Path) -> list[tuple[Path, ResearchResult]]:
|
||||||
|
"""Load every <id>.result.json under trace_dir, sorted by mtime."""
|
||||||
|
files = sorted(trace_dir.glob("*.result.json"), key=lambda p: p.stat().st_mtime)
|
||||||
|
out: list[tuple[Path, ResearchResult]] = []
|
||||||
|
for f in files:
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
result = ResearchResult.model_validate_json(f.read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
|
||||||
|
except Exception as exc:
|
||||||
|
print(f"warning: skipping {f.name}: {exc}", file=sys.stderr)
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
out.append((f, result))
|
||||||
|
return out
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _gap_summary(result: ResearchResult) -> str:
|
||||||
|
"""Render gap categories with counts, e.g. 'source_not_found(2), scope_exceeded(1)'."""
|
||||||
|
if not result.gaps:
|
||||||
|
return "—"
|
||||||
|
counts: dict[str, int] = {}
|
||||||
|
for g in result.gaps:
|
||||||
|
cat = g.category.value if hasattr(g.category, "value") else str(g.category)
|
||||||
|
counts[cat] = counts.get(cat, 0) + 1
|
||||||
|
return ", ".join(f"{k}({v})" for k, v in sorted(counts.items()))
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _category_map(runs_dir: Path) -> dict[str, str]:
|
||||||
|
"""Map trace_id -> category by parsing scripts/calibration_runner.sh log files.
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
Each log file is named like ``01-factual.log`` and contains a final
|
||||||
|
``trace_id: <uuid>`` line emitted by the CLI.
|
||||||
|
"""
|
||||||
|
out: dict[str, str] = {}
|
||||||
|
if not runs_dir.exists():
|
||||||
|
return out
|
||||||
|
for log in runs_dir.glob("*.log"):
|
||||||
|
# filename format: NN-category.log
|
||||||
|
stem = log.stem
|
||||||
|
parts = stem.split("-", 1)
|
||||||
|
if len(parts) != 2:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
category = parts[1]
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
text = log.read_text(encoding="utf-8")
|
||||||
|
except Exception:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
# Find the last "trace_id: <uuid>" line
|
||||||
|
trace_id = None
|
||||||
|
for line in text.splitlines():
|
||||||
|
if "trace_id:" in line:
|
||||||
|
# Strip ANSI / rich markup if present
|
||||||
|
token = line.split("trace_id:")[-1].strip()
|
||||||
|
# Take only the UUID portion
|
||||||
|
token = token.split()[0] if token else ""
|
||||||
|
# Strip any surrounding rich markup
|
||||||
|
token = token.replace("[/dim]", "").replace("[dim]", "")
|
||||||
|
if token:
|
||||||
|
trace_id = token
|
||||||
|
if trace_id:
|
||||||
|
out[trace_id] = category
|
||||||
|
return out
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _question_from_trace(trace_dir: Path, trace_id: str) -> str:
|
||||||
|
"""Recover the original question from the trace JSONL's `start` event."""
|
||||||
|
jsonl = trace_dir / f"{trace_id}.jsonl"
|
||||||
|
if not jsonl.exists():
|
||||||
|
return "(question not recoverable — trace missing)"
|
||||||
|
try:
|
||||||
|
for line in jsonl.read_text(encoding="utf-8").splitlines():
|
||||||
|
line = line.strip()
|
||||||
|
if not line:
|
||||||
|
continue
|
||||||
|
entry = json.loads(line)
|
||||||
|
if entry.get("action") == "start":
|
||||||
|
return entry.get("question", "(no question field)")
|
||||||
|
except Exception as exc:
|
||||||
|
return f"(parse error: {exc})"
|
||||||
|
return "(no start event)"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def _build_worksheet(
|
||||||
|
rows: list[tuple[Path, ResearchResult]],
|
||||||
|
trace_dir: Path,
|
||||||
|
category_map: dict[str, str],
|
||||||
|
) -> str:
|
||||||
|
"""Render the markdown worksheet."""
|
||||||
|
lines: list[str] = []
|
||||||
|
lines.append("# M3.3 Calibration Rating Worksheet")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("Issue: #46 (Phase B — human rating)")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append(
|
||||||
|
"## How to use this worksheet"
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append(
|
||||||
|
"For each run below, read the answer + citations from the persisted "
|
||||||
|
"result file (path in the **Result file** column). Score the answer's "
|
||||||
|
"*actual* correctness on a 0.0–1.0 scale, **independent** of the "
|
||||||
|
"model's self-reported confidence. Fill in the **actual_rating** "
|
||||||
|
"column. Add notes in the **notes** column for anything unusual."
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("Rating rubric:")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("- **1.0** — Answer is fully correct, well-supported by cited sources, no material gaps or hallucinations.")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("- **0.8** — Mostly correct; minor inaccuracies or omissions that don't change the substance.")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("- **0.6** — Substantively right but with notable errors, missing context, or weak citations.")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("- **0.4** — Mixed: some right, some wrong; or right answer for wrong reasons.")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("- **0.2** — Mostly wrong, misleading, or hallucinated despite confident framing.")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("- **0.0** — Completely wrong, fabricated, or refuses to answer a tractable question.")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("After rating all rows, save this file and run:")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("```")
|
||||||
|
lines.append(".venv/bin/python scripts/calibration_analyze.py")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("```")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append(f"## Runs ({len(rows)} total)")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append(
|
||||||
|
"| # | trace_id | category | question | model_conf | corrob | authority | contradiction | budget | recency | gaps | citations | discoveries | tokens | actual_rating | notes |"
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
lines.append(
|
||||||
|
"|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|"
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
for i, (path, result) in enumerate(rows, 1):
|
||||||
|
cf = result.confidence_factors
|
||||||
|
cm = result.cost_metadata
|
||||||
|
question = _question_from_trace(trace_dir, result.trace_id).replace("|", "\\|")
|
||||||
|
# Truncate long questions for table readability
|
||||||
|
if len(question) > 80:
|
||||||
|
question = question[:77] + "..."
|
||||||
|
gaps = _gap_summary(result).replace("|", "\\|")
|
||||||
|
contradiction = "yes" if cf.contradiction_detected else "no"
|
||||||
|
budget = "spent" if cf.budget_exhausted else "under"
|
||||||
|
recency = cf.recency or "—"
|
||||||
|
category = category_map.get(result.trace_id, "ad-hoc")
|
||||||
|
lines.append(
|
||||||
|
f"| {i} "
|
||||||
|
f"| `{result.trace_id[:8]}` "
|
||||||
|
f"| {category} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {question} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {result.confidence:.2f} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {cf.num_corroborating_sources} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {cf.source_authority} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {contradiction} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {budget} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {recency} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {gaps} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {len(result.citations)} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {len(result.discovery_events)} "
|
||||||
|
f"| {cm.tokens_used} "
|
||||||
|
f"| "
|
||||||
|
f"| |"
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("## Result files (full content for review)")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
for i, (path, result) in enumerate(rows, 1):
|
||||||
|
lines.append(f"{i}. `{path}`")
|
||||||
|
lines.append("")
|
||||||
|
return "\n".join(lines)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
def main() -> int:
|
||||||
|
trace_dir = Path(
|
||||||
|
os.environ.get("TRACE_DIR", os.path.expanduser("~/.marchwarden/traces"))
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
out_path = Path(
|
||||||
|
os.environ.get("OUT", REPO_ROOT / "docs/stress-tests/M3.3-rating-worksheet.md")
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
out_path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
rows = _load_results(trace_dir)
|
||||||
|
if not rows:
|
||||||
|
print(f"No result files found under {trace_dir}", file=sys.stderr)
|
||||||
|
return 1
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
runs_dir = REPO_ROOT / "docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs"
|
||||||
|
category_map = _category_map(runs_dir)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
out_path.write_text(
|
||||||
|
_build_worksheet(rows, trace_dir, category_map), encoding="utf-8"
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
print(f"Wrote {len(rows)}-row worksheet to {out_path}")
|
||||||
|
return 0
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
||||||
|
raise SystemExit(main())
|
||||||
67
scripts/calibration_runner.sh
Executable file
67
scripts/calibration_runner.sh
Executable file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
|
||||||
|
#!/usr/bin/env bash
|
||||||
|
# scripts/calibration_runner.sh
|
||||||
|
#
|
||||||
|
# M3.3 Phase A: run a fixed set of 20 balanced-depth calibration queries.
|
||||||
|
# Each run writes a trace JSONL and a result.json under ~/.marchwarden/traces/.
|
||||||
|
# This script is idempotent in the sense that it doesn't track state — re-running
|
||||||
|
# it will produce 20 NEW traces. Don't re-run unless you want fresh data.
|
||||||
|
#
|
||||||
|
# Categories (5 each):
|
||||||
|
# - factual: single verifiable answer
|
||||||
|
# - comparative: X vs Y across some dimension
|
||||||
|
# - contradiction-prone: contested topics, sources disagree
|
||||||
|
# - scope-edge: niche, proprietary, or expert-only knowledge
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
set -euo pipefail
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
cd "$(dirname "$0")/.."
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
PY=".venv/bin/python"
|
||||||
|
LOG_DIR="docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs"
|
||||||
|
mkdir -p "$LOG_DIR"
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
declare -a QUERIES=(
|
||||||
|
# factual
|
||||||
|
"factual|01|What is the boiling point of liquid nitrogen at standard atmospheric pressure?"
|
||||||
|
"factual|02|When did the James Webb Space Telescope launch?"
|
||||||
|
"factual|03|What programming language is the Linux kernel primarily written in?"
|
||||||
|
"factual|04|What is the capital of Mongolia?"
|
||||||
|
"factual|05|How many amino acids are encoded by the standard genetic code?"
|
||||||
|
# comparative
|
||||||
|
"comparative|06|Compare the energy density of lithium-ion vs sodium-ion batteries."
|
||||||
|
"comparative|07|Compare PostgreSQL and SQLite for embedded analytics workloads."
|
||||||
|
"comparative|08|Compare CRISPR-Cas9 and CRISPR-Cas12 for in vivo gene editing."
|
||||||
|
"comparative|09|Compare React and Vue for large enterprise frontends in 2026."
|
||||||
|
"comparative|10|Compare wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United States."
|
||||||
|
# contradiction-prone
|
||||||
|
"contradiction|11|Is red wine good for cardiovascular health?"
|
||||||
|
"contradiction|12|Does intermittent fasting extend lifespan in humans?"
|
||||||
|
"contradiction|13|Are nuclear power plants safe?"
|
||||||
|
"contradiction|14|Is dietary cholesterol harmful?"
|
||||||
|
"contradiction|15|Does screen time harm child development?"
|
||||||
|
# scope-edge
|
||||||
|
"scope|16|What proprietary indexing strategies do high-frequency trading firms use for order book reconstruction?"
|
||||||
|
"scope|17|What is the actual operational doctrine of Chinese DF-41 ICBM brigades?"
|
||||||
|
"scope|18|What internal compensation bands does Goldman Sachs use for VPs in 2026?"
|
||||||
|
"scope|19|How does Renaissance Technologies Medallion Fund actually generate alpha?"
|
||||||
|
"scope|20|What are the precise materials and tolerances in TSMC's 2nm process?"
|
||||||
|
)
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
echo "Running ${#QUERIES[@]} calibration queries at depth=balanced..."
|
||||||
|
echo "Output dir: $LOG_DIR"
|
||||||
|
echo
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
for entry in "${QUERIES[@]}"; do
|
||||||
|
IFS='|' read -r category num question <<<"$entry"
|
||||||
|
log_file="$LOG_DIR/${num}-${category}.log"
|
||||||
|
echo "[$num/$category] $question"
|
||||||
|
if "$PY" -m cli.main ask "$question" --depth balanced >"$log_file" 2>&1; then
|
||||||
|
trace_id=$(grep -oE 'trace_id: [a-f0-9-]+' "$log_file" | tail -1 | awk '{print $2}')
|
||||||
|
echo " -> $trace_id"
|
||||||
|
else
|
||||||
|
echo " !! FAILED — see $log_file"
|
||||||
|
fi
|
||||||
|
done
|
||||||
|
|
||||||
|
echo
|
||||||
|
echo "Done. Result files at ~/.marchwarden/traces/*.result.json"
|
||||||
Loading…
Reference in a new issue