13215d7ddb
Issue #46 (Phase A only — Phase B human rating still pending, issue stays open). Adds the data-collection half of the calibration milestone: - scripts/calibration_runner.sh — runs 20 fixed balanced-depth queries across 4 categories (factual, comparative, contradiction-prone, scope-edge), 5 each, capturing per-run logs to docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/. - scripts/calibration_collect.py — loads every persisted ResearchResult under ~/.marchwarden/traces/*.result.json and emits a markdown rating worksheet with one row per run. Recovers question text from each trace's start event and category from the run-log filename. - docs/stress-tests/M3.3-rating-worksheet.md — 22 runs (20 calibration + caffeine smoke + M3.2 multi-axis), with empty actual_rating columns for the human-in-the-loop scoring step. - docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/*.log — runtime logs from the calibration runner, kept as provenance. Gitignore updated with an exception carving stress-test logs out of the global *.log ignore. Note: M3.1's 4 runs predate #54 (full result persistence) and so are unrecoverable to the worksheet — only post-#54 runs have a result.json sibling. 22 rateable runs is still within the milestone target of 20–30. Phases B (human rating) and C (analysis + rubric + wiki update) follow in a later session. This issue stays open until both are done. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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310 lines
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Researching: Compare wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United
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States.
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╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
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│ Wind and solar capacity factors in the continental United States differ │
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│ notably, with wind generally outperforming utility-scale solar on an annual │
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│ average basis, though both vary significantly by location and season. │
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│ │
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│ **Wind Capacity Factors:** In 2023, the U.S. wind turbine fleet had an │
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│ average capacity factor of 33.5%, which was an eight-year low driven by │
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│ weaker-than-normal wind speeds (down from the 2022 all-time high of 35.9%). │
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│ Wind capacity factors are highest in spring (March–April) and lowest in │
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│ summer. In April 2024, wind generation hit a record 47.7 TWh, exceeding coal │
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│ generation for the second consecutive month. The NREL wind resource │
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│ assessment identifies areas with capacity factors ≥30% (generally mean │
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│ annual wind speeds ≥6.4 m/s) as suitable for development, with the │
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│ highest-potential zones in the central Great Plains. The U.S. total │
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│ installed wind capacity reached ~150,500 MW by end of 2023. │
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│ │
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│ **Solar (Utility-Scale PV) Capacity Factors:** The weighted average U.S. │
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│ utility-scale solar capacity factor was 23.5% in 2023, down 0.7 percentage │
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│ points from 24.2% in 2022. NREL's Annual Technology Baseline categorizes │
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│ utility-scale PV capacity factors into 10 resource classes based on mean │
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│ global horizontal irradiance (GHI); the desert Southwest achieves the │
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│ highest factors, while northern states achieve at least ~70% of the │
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│ Southwest's value. Solar generation is highest in summer and lowest in │
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│ winter, opposite to wind seasonality. │
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│ │
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│ **Comparison Summary:** On an annual fleet-wide average, wind capacity │
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│ factors (~33–36%) are materially higher than utility-scale solar capacity │
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│ factors (~23–24%). However, the two resources are complementary seasonally: │
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│ wind peaks in spring, solar peaks in summer. Both are intermittent │
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│ resources. In 2025, wind and solar together generated a record 17% of U.S. │
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│ electricity (wind: 464,000 GWh; utility-scale solar: 296,000 GWh), │
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│ reflecting wind's larger current installed base despite solar's faster │
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│ recent capacity growth. │
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╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
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Citations
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┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
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┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
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┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
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│ 1 │ Wind generation declined in │ Last year, the average │ 0.98 │
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│ │ 2023 for the first time since │ utilization rate, or capacity │ │
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│ │ the 1990s - EIA │ factor, of the wind turbine │ │
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│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ fleet fell to an eight-year │ │
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│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=61943 │ low of 33.5% (compared with │ │
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│ │ │ 35.9% in 2022, the all-time │ │
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│ │ │ high). │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 2 │ US solar capacity factors │ The weighted average US solar │ 0.95 │
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│ │ retreat in 2023, break │ capacity factor came in at a │ │
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│ │ multiyear streak above 24% │ calculated 23.5% annually in │ │
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│ │ https://www.spglobal.com/mark │ 2023, down 0.7 percentage │ │
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│ │ et-intelligence/en/news-insig │ point from 24.2% in 2022. │ │
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│ │ hts/research/us-solar-capacit │ │ │
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│ │ y-factors-retreat-in-2023-bre │ │ │
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│ │ ak-multiyear-streak-above-24p │ │ │
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│ │ erc │ │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 3 │ U.S. wind generation hit │ Wind generation, meanwhile, │ 0.97 │
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│ │ record in April 2024, │ increased to a record 47.7 │ │
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│ │ exceeding coal-fired │ TWh. However, during the first │ │
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│ │ generation - EIA │ four months of 2024, │ │
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│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ coal-fired generation was 15% │ │
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│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=62784 │ higher than wind generation in │ │
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│ │ │ the United States. Installed │ │
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│ │ │ wind power generating capacity │ │
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│ │ │ has increased substantially in │ │
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│ │ │ the United States over the │ │
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│ │ │ last 25 years, growing from │ │
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│ │ │ 2.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2000 to │ │
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│ │ │ 150.1 GW in April 2024. │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 4 │ Land-Based Wind Market Report │ The U.S. wind industry │ 0.97 │
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│ │ 2024: Edition | Department of │ installed 6,474 megawatts (MW) │ │
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│ │ Energy │ of new land-based wind │ │
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│ │ https://www.energy.gov/cmei/s │ capacity in 2023, bringing the │ │
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│ │ ystems/land-based-wind-market │ cumulative total to nearly │ │
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│ │ -report-2024-edition │ 150,500 MW. Also, $10.8 │ │
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│ │ │ billion was invested in 2023 │ │
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│ │ │ in land-based wind energy │ │
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│ │ │ expansion. │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 5 │ Utility-Scale PV | │ The 2024 ATB provides the │ 0.93 │
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│ │ Electricity | 2024 | ATB | │ average capacity factor for 10 │ │
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│ │ NREL │ resource categories in the │ │
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│ │ https://atb.nrel.gov/electric │ United States, binned by mean │ │
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│ │ ity/2024/utility-scale_pv │ GHI. Average capacity factors │ │
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│ │ │ are calculated using │ │
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│ │ │ county-level capacity factor │ │
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│ │ │ averages from the Renewable │ │
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│ │ │ Energy Potential (reV) model │ │
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│ │ │ for 1998–2021. │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 6 │ NREL projects solar │ In the latest update, zones │ 0.85 │
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│ │ generation and costs for 10 │ 2-8, representing all but the │ │
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│ │ U.S. zones – pv magazine USA │ northernmost states in the │ │
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│ │ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2 │ continental U.S., solar │ │
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│ │ 021/07/22/nrel-projects-solar │ installations have a capacity │ │
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│ │ -generation-and-costs-for-10- │ factor that is at least 70% of │ │
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│ │ u-s-zones/ │ that in the desert Southwest's │ │
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│ │ │ zone 1, the data show. │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 7 │ Wind and solar generated a │ In 2025, wind power generated │ 0.96 │
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│ │ record 17% of U.S. │ 464,000 GWh of electricity, 3% │ │
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│ │ electricity in 2025 - EIA │ more than in 2024. In 2025, │ │
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│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ utility-scale solar power │ │
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│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=67367 │ generation totaled 296,000 │ │
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│ │ │ GWh, 34% more than in 2024. │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 8 │ 80 and 100 Meter Wind Energy │ Windy land defined as areas │ 0.82 │
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│ │ Resource Potential for the │ with >= 30% CF*, generally │ │
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│ │ United States - NREL │ mean annual wind speeds >= 6.4 │ │
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│ │ https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy │ m/s... U.S. wind potential │ │
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│ │ 10osti/48036.pdf │ from areas with CF*>=30% is │ │
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│ │ │ enormous, with almost 10,500 │ │
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│ │ │ GW capacity at 80 m and 12,000 │ │
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│ │ │ GW capacity at 100 m. │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 9 │ Wind power in the United │ In 2025, 464.4 terawatt-hours │ 0.88 │
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│ │ States - Wikipedia │ were generated by wind power, │ │
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│ │ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki │ or 10.48% of electricity in │ │
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│ │ /Wind_power_in_the_United_Sta │ the United States. In March │ │
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│ │ tes │ and April of 2024, electricity │ │
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│ │ │ generation from wind exceeded │ │
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│ │ │ generation from coal, once the │ │
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│ │ │ dominant source of U.S. │ │
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│ │ │ electricity, for an extended │ │
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│ │ │ period for the first time. │ │
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├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
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│ 10 │ Utility-scale U.S. solar │ In August 2024, a total of │ 0.94 │
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│ │ electricity generation │ 107.4 gigawatts (GW) of solar │ │
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│ │ continues to grow in 2024 - │ electricity generating │ │
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│ │ EIA │ capacity was operating in the │ │
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│ │ https://www.eia.gov/todayinen │ Lower 48 states compared with │ │
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│ │ ergy/detail.php?id=63324 │ 81.9 GW in August 2023... In │ │
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│ │ │ the final five months of 2024, │ │
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│ │ │ we expect new U.S. solar │ │
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│ │ │ electricity generating │ │
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│ │ │ capacity will make up 63%, or │ │
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│ │ │ nearly two-thirds, of all new │ │
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│ │ │ electricity generating │ │
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│ │ │ capacity to come online. │ │
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└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
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Gaps
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┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
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┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
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┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
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│ scope_exceeded │ Offshore wind capacity │ The evidence gathered │
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│ │ factors │ focuses on land-based wind. │
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│ │ │ Offshore wind typically has │
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│ │ │ higher capacity factors │
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│ │ │ (40–50%+) than land-based │
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│ │ │ wind but was not the │
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│ │ │ primary focus of the │
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│ │ │ sources retrieved. │
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├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
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│ source_not_found │ Most recent 2024 annual │ The 2023 annual wind │
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│ │ average wind capacity │ capacity factor (33.5%) is │
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│ │ factor │ confirmed, but a final 2024 │
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│ │ │ annual figure was not found │
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│ │ │ in the sources; only │
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│ │ │ monthly records for April │
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│ │ │ 2024 were available. │
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├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
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│ source_not_found │ Regional breakdown of wind │ State- or region-level │
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│ │ vs. solar capacity factors │ direct comparisons of wind │
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│ │ within the continental U.S. │ vs. solar capacity factors │
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│ │ │ within the continental U.S. │
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│ │ │ were not available in the │
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│ │ │ retrieved sources. │
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├──────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────┤
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│ scope_exceeded │ Small-scale/rooftop solar │ The 23.5% solar capacity │
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│ │ capacity factors │ factor applies to │
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│ │ │ utility-scale solar. │
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│ │ │ Distributed/rooftop solar │
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│ │ │ typically has lower │
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│ │ │ capacity factors due to │
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│ │ │ suboptimal orientation; │
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│ │ │ this was not quantified in │
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│ │ │ the retrieved evidence. │
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└──────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────┘
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Discovery Events
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┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
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┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
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┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
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┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
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│ related_research │ database │ U.S. offshore │ Offshore wind has │
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│ │ │ wind capacity │ substantially │
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│ │ │ factors 2023 2024 │ higher capacity │
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│ │ │ compared to │ factors than │
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│ │ │ land-based wind │ land-based wind │
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│ │ │ and solar │ and solar, which │
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│ │ │ │ would complete │
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│ │ │ │ the renewable │
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│ │ │ │ capacity factor │
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│ │ │ │ comparison │
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│ │ │ │ picture. │
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├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
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│ related_research │ database │ NREL ATB 2024 │ NREL ATB provides │
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│ │ │ utility-scale │ wind capacity │
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│ │ │ wind capacity │ factors by │
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│ │ │ factor by │ resource class │
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│ │ │ resource class │ similar to solar, │
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│ │ │ continental US │ enabling direct │
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│ │ │ │ apples-to-apples │
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│ │ │ │ regional │
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│ │ │ │ comparison with │
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│ │ │ │ solar CF data. │
|
||
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||
│ related_research │ database │ seasonal wind vs │ Wind peaks in │
|
||
│ │ │ solar capacity │ spring, solar in │
|
||
│ │ │ factor │ summer—understand │
|
||
│ │ │ complementarity │ ing this │
|
||
│ │ │ United States │ complementarity │
|
||
│ │ │ grid balancing │ is critical for │
|
||
│ │ │ │ grid planning and │
|
||
│ │ │ │ storage │
|
||
│ │ │ │ requirements. │
|
||
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
|
||
│ new_source │ database │ EIA Electric │ The 2024 │
|
||
│ │ │ Power Monthly │ full-year wind │
|
||
│ │ │ 2024 annual wind │ capacity factor │
|
||
│ │ │ capacity factor │ would allow │
|
||
│ │ │ final │ updated │
|
||
│ │ │ │ comparison with │
|
||
│ │ │ │ the 2023 solar │
|
||
│ │ │ │ capacity factor │
|
||
│ │ │ │ of 23.5%. │
|
||
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
|
||
Open Questions
|
||
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
|
||
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
|
||
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
|
||
│ high │ How do wind and solar capacity │ Texas led wind capacity │
|
||
│ │ factors compare on a regional │ additions in 2023 (1,323 MW) │
|
||
│ │ basis within the continental │ and is the second-largest │
|
||
│ │ U.S., particularly in states │ utility-scale solar state (18.8 │
|
||
│ │ like Texas and California that │ GW). California leads solar. │
|
||
│ │ have significant installations │ Regional comparisons would │
|
||
│ │ of both? │ clarify where each resource is │
|
||
│ │ │ most competitive. │
|
||
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||
│ high │ What is the projected │ NREL's ATB provides │
|
||
│ │ trajectory of utility-scale │ Advanced/Moderate/Conservative │
|
||
│ │ solar capacity factors as │ scenarios for solar CF │
|
||
│ │ technology improves, and will │ improvements through 2050, and │
|
||
│ │ solar eventually close the gap │ solar capacity additions are │
|
||
│ │ with wind on a fleet-wide │ now outpacing wind. The │
|
||
│ │ average basis? │ convergence timeline is │
|
||
│ │ │ unclear. │
|
||
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||
│ medium │ How did the 2023 wind │ Wind generation fell 2.1% in │
|
||
│ │ generation decline (due to low │ 2023 to an eight-year-low │
|
||
│ │ wind speeds) affect investment │ capacity factor of 33.5%, while │
|
||
│ │ decisions for new wind vs. │ solar continued growing. This │
|
||
│ │ solar projects? │ may have influenced utility │
|
||
│ │ │ procurement decisions. │
|
||
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||
│ medium │ What is the capacity factor of │ The DOE Wind Market Reports │
|
||
│ │ offshore wind installations in │ cover offshore wind separately, │
|
||
│ │ the U.S., and how does it │ and offshore wind typically │
|
||
│ │ compare to both land-based wind │ achieves materially higher │
|
||
│ │ and utility-scale solar? │ capacity factors than │
|
||
│ │ │ land-based wind (~40–50%), but │
|
||
│ │ │ this was not quantified in the │
|
||
│ │ │ retrieved sources. │
|
||
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
|
||
│ low │ How does the Inflation │ The IRA led to significant │
|
||
│ │ Reduction Act's impact on wind │ near-term wind deployment │
|
||
│ │ and solar deployment affect │ forecast increases and billions │
|
||
│ │ future capacity factor trends, │ in domestic supply chain │
|
||
│ │ given that larger, more │ investment. Average wind │
|
||
│ │ efficient turbines and │ turbine capacity grew to 3.4 MW │
|
||
│ │ better-sited projects may │ in 2023, up 375% since │
|
||
│ │ improve wind CFs? │ 1998–1999. │
|
||
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
|
||
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
|
||
│ Overall: 0.88 │
|
||
│ Corroborating sources: 10 │
|
||
│ Source authority: high │
|
||
│ Contradiction detected: False │
|
||
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
|
||
│ Budget status: spent │
|
||
│ Recency: current │
|
||
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
|
||
│ Tokens: 48230 │
|
||
│ Iterations: 3 │
|
||
│ Wall time: 95.81s │
|
||
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
|
||
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
|
||
|
||
trace_id: e3fa81c3-eaff-4f76-9b50-d61e70e54540
|