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Jeff Smith 13215d7ddb docs(stress-tests): M3.3 Phase A — calibration data collection 
Issue #46 (Phase A only — Phase B human rating still pending, issue stays open).

Adds the data-collection half of the calibration milestone:

- scripts/calibration_runner.sh — runs 20 fixed balanced-depth queries
  across 4 categories (factual, comparative, contradiction-prone,
  scope-edge), 5 each, capturing per-run logs to docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/.
- scripts/calibration_collect.py — loads every persisted ResearchResult
  under ~/.marchwarden/traces/*.result.json and emits a markdown rating
  worksheet with one row per run. Recovers question text from each
  trace's start event and category from the run-log filename.
- docs/stress-tests/M3.3-rating-worksheet.md — 22 runs (20 calibration
  + caffeine smoke + M3.2 multi-axis), with empty actual_rating columns
  for the human-in-the-loop scoring step.
- docs/stress-tests/M3.3-runs/*.log — runtime logs from the calibration
  runner, kept as provenance. Gitignore updated with an exception
  carving stress-test logs out of the global *.log ignore.

Note: M3.1's 4 runs predate #54 (full result persistence) and so are
unrecoverable to the worksheet — only post-#54 runs have a result.json
sibling. 22 rateable runs is still within the milestone target of 20–30.

Phases B (human rating) and C (analysis + rubric + wiki update) follow
in a later session. This issue stays open until both are done.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-08 20:21:47 -06:00

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Researching: Is red wine good for cardiovascular health?
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╭─────────────────────────────────── Answer ───────────────────────────────────╮
│ The relationship between red wine and cardiovascular health is nuanced and │
│ contested. Historically, observational studies found that moderate drinkers │
│ (at least one drink per day) were 30–40% less likely to die from │
│ cardiovascular disease compared to non-drinkers, a pattern sometimes called │
│ the 'J-shaped mortality curve' [NYT/AHA]. Red wine specifically contains │
│ polyphenols (including flavonoids and resveratrol) that may inhibit LDL │
│ oxidation, prevent endothelial dysfunction, raise HDL cholesterol, and │
│ decrease fibrinogen concentrations [Circulation Research; PMC6804046]. │
│ However, no study has established a direct cause-and-effect link between red │
│ wine consumption and improved heart health [AHA]. More recent analyses │
│ suggest the apparent benefit may reflect confounding factors—moderate │
│ drinkers may have healthier lifestyles overall—and methodological flaws such │
│ as including former drinkers (who quit due to illness) in the abstainer │
│ group [NYT; Three Spirit]. The 'French Paradox,' which popularized the red │
│ wine-heart health hypothesis, is now being critically re-examined as a │
│ public health myth [ResearchGate]. Major health organizations, including the │
│ American Heart Association, do not recommend starting to drink red wine for │
│ heart benefit, and current evidence does not support a causal protective │
│ effect of alcohol on the heart. │
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
Citations
┏━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━┓
┃ # ┃ Title / Locator ┃ Excerpt ┃ Conf ┃
┡━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━┩
│ 1 │ How Red Wine Lost Its Health │ Researchers found that those │ 0.85 │
│ │ Halo - The New York Times │ who reported having at least │ │
│ │ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/ │ one alcoholic drink per day │ │
│ │ 02/17/well/eat/red-wine-heart │ were 30 to 40 percent less │ │
│ │ -health.html │ likely to die from │ │
│ │ │ cardiovascular disease. │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 2 │ Drinking red wine for heart │ No research has established a │ 0.92 │
│ │ health? Read this before you │ cause-and-effect link between │ │
│ │ toast | American Heart │ drinking alcohol and better │ │
│ │ Association │ heart health. Rather, studies │ │
│ │ https://www.heart.org/en/news │ have found an association │ │
│ │ /2019/05/24/drinking-red-wine │ between wine and such benefits │ │
│ │ -for-heart-health-read-this-b │ as a lower risk of dying from │ │
│ │ efore-you-toast │ heart disease. │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 3 │ Red Wine and Cardiovascular │ The alcoholic component is │ 0.90 │
│ │ Health | Circulation Research │ known to increase high-density │ │
│ │ https://www.ahajournals.org/d │ lipoprotein cholesterol and to │ │
│ │ oi/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.112.278 │ decrease fibrinogen │ │
│ │ 705?doi=10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.11 │ concentrations. The │ │
│ │ 2.278705 │ polyphenols present in red │ │
│ │ │ wine │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 4 │ Wine and Cardiovascular │ Flavonoids from red wine have │ 0.88 │
│ │ Health | Circulation │ been credited to inhibit │ │
│ │ https://www.ahajournals.org/d │ low-density lipoprotein (LDL) │ │
│ │ oi/10.1161/circulationaha.117 │ oxidation and prevent │ │
│ │ .030387 │ endothelial dysfunction, which │ │
│ │ │ is │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 5 │ Red Wine Consumption and │ Red Wine Consumption and │ 0.85 │
│ │ Cardiovascular Health - PMC │ Cardiovascular Health Luigi │ │
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ Castaldo ... Department of │ │
│ │ articles/PMC6804046/ │ Pharmacy, Faculty of Pharmacy, │ │
│ │ │ University of Naples "Federico │ │
│ │ │ II" ... Molecules. 2019 Oct │ │
│ │ │ 8;24(19):3626. doi: │ │
│ │ │ 10.3390/molecules24193626 │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 6 │ Association between Wine │ Association between Wine │ 0.87 │
│ │ Consumption with │ Consumption with │ │
│ │ Cardiovascular Disease and │ Cardiovascular Disease and │ │
│ │ Cardiovascular Mortality: A │ Cardiovascular Mortality: A │ │
│ │ Systematic Review and │ Systematic Review and │ │
│ │ Meta-Analysis - PMC │ Meta-Analysis ... Nutrients. │ │
│ │ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/ │ 2023 Jun 17;15(12):2785. doi: │ │
│ │ articles/PMC10303697/ │ 10.3390/nu15122785 │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 7 │ Red wine and resveratrol: │ Is red wine heart healthy? │ 0.88 │
│ │ Good for your heart? - Mayo │ Antioxidants in red wine │ │
│ │ Clinic │ called polyphenols may help │ │
│ │ https://www.mayoclinic.org/di │ protect the lining of blood │ │
│ │ seases-conditions/heart-disea │ vessels in the heart. · │ │
│ │ se/in-depth/red-wine/art-2004 │ Resveratrol in red wine. │ │
│ │ 8281 │ │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 8 │ Debunking the 'wine is │ In the early nineties, a TV │ 0.65 │
│ │ healthy' myth – Three Spirit │ show in the US reported lower │ │
│ │ US │ heart attack rates in │ │
│ │ https://us.threespiritdrinks. │ France... The report framed │ │
│ │ com/blogs/blog/where-the-wine │ the country's regular │ │
│ │ -is-healthy-myth-came-from │ consumption of alcohol, in │ │
│ │ │ particular red wine, as the │ │
│ │ │ reason behind this, claiming │ │
│ │ │ that it reduced that risk of │ │
│ │ │ heart disease. │ │
├─────┼───────────────────────────────┼────────────────────────────────┼───────┤
│ 9 │ Revisiting the French │ The "French Paradox," the │ 0.78 │
│ │ Paradox: Deconstructing a │ hypothesis that moderate red │ │
│ │ Public Health Myth and its │ wine consumption explains │ │
│ │ Global Commercial Legacy │ France's historically low │ │
│ │ https://www.researchgate.net/ │ coronary heart disease rates │ │
│ │ publication/399257280_Title_R │ │ │
│ │ evisiting_the_French_Paradox_ │ │ │
│ │ Deconstructing_a_Public_Healt │ │ │
│ │ h_Myth_and_its_Global_Commerc │ │ │
│ │ ial_Legacy │ │ │
└─────┴───────────────────────────────┴────────────────────────────────┴───────┘
Gaps
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
┃ Category ┃ Topic ┃ Detail ┃
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
│ source_not_found │ Randomized controlled │ Most evidence is │
│ │ trial evidence on red │ observational. Robust RCT │
│ │ wine and cardiovascular │ data directly testing red │
│ │ outcomes │ wine's causal │
│ │ │ cardiovascular effect in │
│ │ │ humans is lacking and not │
│ │ │ surfaced in available │
│ │ │ sources. │
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
│ contradictory_sources │ Differential effect of │ Some sources attribute │
│ │ red wine vs. other │ benefits to polyphenols │
│ │ alcohol types on │ specific to red wine, │
│ │ cardiovascular health │ while others suggest the │
│ │ │ effect is due to alcohol │
│ │ │ in general, making it │
│ │ │ unclear whether red wine │
│ │ │ is uniquely beneficial. │
├───────────────────────┼──────────────────────────┼───────────────────────────┤
│ access_denied │ Full text of 2023 │ The PMC10303697 │
│ │ meta-analysis findings │ meta-analysis page header │
│ │ │ was retrieved but full │
│ │ │ results/conclusions were │
│ │ │ not available in the │
│ │ │ scraped content. │
└───────────────────────┴──────────────────────────┴───────────────────────────┘
Discovery Events
┏━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
┃ ┃ Suggested ┃ ┃ ┃
┃ Type ┃ Researcher ┃ Query ┃ Reason ┃
┡━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
│ contradiction │ database │ randomized │ Observational │
│ │ │ controlled trial │ studies suggest │
│ │ │ red wine │ benefit, but no │
│ │ │ polyphenols │ causal link │
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ established; RCT │
│ │ │ outcomes │ evidence needed │
│ │ │ │ to resolve │
│ │ │ │ contradiction. │
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
│ related_research │ arxiv │ resveratrol │ Resveratrol is │
│ │ │ bioavailability │ cited as a key │
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ mechanism but its │
│ │ │ human clinical │ bioavailability │
│ │ │ trials 2022 2023 │ from wine in │
│ │ │ 2024 │ clinically │
│ │ │ │ meaningful doses │
│ │ │ │ is debated. │
├──────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┼───────────────────┤
│ related_research │ database │ sick quitter bias │ The J-shaped │
│ │ │ abstainer │ curve may be an │
│ │ │ misclassification │ artifact of │
│ │ │ alcohol │ methodological │
│ │ │ cardiovascular │ flaws (sick │
│ │ │ epidemiology │ quitters included │
│ │ │ │ in abstainer │
│ │ │ │ group), which │
│ │ │ │ undermines │
│ │ │ │ earlier │
│ │ │ │ protective │
│ │ │ │ findings. │
└──────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┴───────────────────┘
Open Questions
┏━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┳━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┓
┃ Priority ┃ Question ┃ Context ┃
┡━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━╇━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━┩
│ high │ Does the apparent │ Observational J-curve studies │
│ │ cardiovascular benefit of │ may misclassify former drinkers │
│ │ moderate red wine consumption │ who quit due to illness as │
│ │ disappear when sick quitters │ non-drinkers, inflating the │
│ │ are properly excluded from the │ apparent benefit of moderate │
│ │ abstainer comparison group? │ drinking. │
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
│ high │ Is the cardiovascular effect of │ Circulation Research notes both │
│ │ red wine attributable to │ the alcohol component and │
│ │ polyphenols (resveratrol, │ polyphenols independently │
│ │ flavonoids) or simply to the │ affect cardiovascular markers, │
│ │ alcohol content? │ but their relative contribution │
│ │ │ is unclear. │
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
│ medium │ What do the most recent │ The 2023 PMC meta-analysis was │
│ │ meta-analyses (2022–2024) │ identified but its full │
│ │ conclude about wine consumption │ conclusions were not accessible │
│ │ and cardiovascular mortality │ in the retrieved content. │
│ │ after correcting for │ │
│ │ confounders? │ │
├──────────┼─────────────────────────────────┼─────────────────────────────────┤
│ medium │ Are there subpopulations (e.g., │ Current guidance is │
│ │ by age, sex, genetic profile) │ population-level; individual │
│ │ for whom moderate red wine │ variation in alcohol metabolism │
│ │ consumption might confer │ and cardiovascular risk │
│ │ measurable cardiovascular │ profiles may produce different │
│ │ benefit? │ outcomes. │
└──────────┴─────────────────────────────────┴─────────────────────────────────┘
╭───────────────────────────────── Confidence ─────────────────────────────────╮
│ Overall: 0.72 │
│ Corroborating sources: 7 │
│ Source authority: high │
│ Contradiction detected: True │
│ Query specificity match: 0.85 │
│ Budget status: spent │
│ Recency: recent │
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
╭──────────────────────────────────── Cost ────────────────────────────────────╮
│ Tokens: 42350 │
│ Iterations: 3 │
│ Wall time: 76.46s │
│ Model: claude-sonnet-4-6 │
╰──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────╯
trace_id: 96acce3c-853d-40b7-ba02-c721ac59f85d
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